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Projections and Paces – Indians

Jun 19, 2009, 9:22 PM EDT

The article below is meant to provide a quick look at how my
preseason projections match up with the paces of select major league
hitters.

Victor Martinez
2008: .278/.337/.365, 2 HR, 30 R, 35 RBI, 0 SB in 266 AB
Proj..: .296/.368/.459, 19 HR, 71 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 538 AB
Pace: .345/.424/.550, 26 HR, 112 R, 119 RBI, 0 SB in 615 AB

Martinez is on pace for new career highs in every category except
steals. He actually did have one stolen base in his rookie season in
2003. He hasn’t even attempted one since 2005.

Mark DeRosa
2008: .285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 103 R, 87 RBI, 6 SB in 505 AB
Proj..: .271/.350/.411, 15 HR, 85 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 557 AB
Pace: .280/.348/.479, 31 HR, 110 R, 114 RBI, 0 SB in 612 AB

DeRosa has raised his average from .236 in April to .291 in May to
.323 so far this month. His trade value is increasing as well.

Shin-Soo Choo
2008: .309/.397/.549, 14 HR, 68 R, 66 RBI, 4 SB in 317 AB
Proj..: .287/.367/.459, 15 HR, 84 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB in 516 AB
Pace: .297/.409/.464, 21 HR, 100 R, 98 RBI, 26 SB in 569 AB

Stolen from the Mariners for Ben Broussard two years ago, Choo has
turned into one of Cleveland’s building blocks. He is currently
sporting a .293/.388/.484 line in 748 major league at-bats, and he’s a
perfect 11-for-11 in his steal attempts this season.

Jhonny Peralta
2008: .276/.331/.473, 23 HR, 104 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
Proj..: .273/.343/.449, 21 HR, 89 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 583 AB
Pace: .252/.331/.338, 5 HR, 45 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 529 AB

It looked like Peralta came out of his early-season funk when he hit
.316 in May, but his average is down again recently and he still hasn’t
found his power stroke. The Indians seem pretty frustrated, but it’s
not like they can give up on him. A return to form remains likely.

Ben Francisco
2008: .266/.332/.438, 15 HR, 65 R, 54 RBI, 4 SB in 447 AB
Proj..: .271/.333/.432, 12 HR, 60 R, 63 RBI, 13 SB in 431 AB
Pace: .233/.297/.372, 12 HR, 67 R, 55 RBI, 24 SB in 512 AB

Francisco, on the other hand, needs to be turned into a fourth
outfielder. It could well happen if Grady Sizemore returns. Also, the
Indians will want to give Matt LaPorta and Trevor Crowe real
opportunities after the break.

Asdrubal Cabrera
2008: .259/.346/.366, 6 HR, 48 R, 47 RBI, 4 SB in 352 AB
Proj..: .281/.352/.409, 10 HR, 77 R, 68 RBI, 9 SB in 531 AB
Pace: .316/.374/.427, 5 HR, 91 R, 64 RBI, 17 SB in 491 AB

Cabrera does fan quite a bit, so he wasn’t likely to keep up the
.316 average. Still, the Indians miss his offense and his defense even
more.

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