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Midseason AL Cy Young Award

Jul 14, 2009, 6:34 PM EDT

It was the easiest call of all of the awards when we looked back one-third of the way through the year, but things have tightened up a bit since, as Zack Greinke is no longer sporting a 1.10 ERA.

Here’s the top 10 in ERA:

1. Zack Greinke – 2.12 ERA in 127 1/3 IP
2. Edwin Jackson – 2.52 ERA in 121 2/3 IP
3. Felix Hernandez – 2.53 ERA in 124 2/3 IP
4. Roy Halladay – 2.85 ERA in 123 IP
5. Jarrod Washburn – 2.96 ERA in 112 1/3 IP
6. Nick Blackburn – 3.06 ERA in 123 1/3 IP
7. Dallas Braden – 3.12 ERA in 112 1/3 IP
8. Jered Weaver – 3.22 ERA in 120 1/3 IP
9. Josh Beckett – 3.35 ERA in 121 IP
10. Justin Verlander – 3.38 ERA in 122 1/3 IP

And the top 10 in VORP:

1. Zack Greinke – 45.5
2. Edwin Jackson – 39.9
3. Felix Hernandez – 39.3
4. Roy Halladay – 39.0
5. Cliff Lee – 34.3
6. Jered Weaver – 33.3
7. Jarrod Washburn – 32.8
8. Kevin Millwood – 31.7
9. Nick Blackburn – 29.9
10. Justin Verlander – 29.3

I think that VORP gives us a better list than ERA in this case,
particularly in the way that it separates the top four from the rest of
the pack.

Now let’s try to remove fielding from the equation with FIP:

1. Zack Greinke – 2.06
2. Justin Verlander – 2.69
3. Roy Halladay – 2.96
4. Felix Hernandez – 3.04
5. Jon Lester – 3.32
6. Cliff Lee – 3.34
7. Josh Beckett – 3.36
8. Dallas Braden – 3.44
9. Edwin Jackson – 3.52
10. Carl Pavano – 3.70

I don’t really trust FIP very much, but there’s a lot here that I
agree with. Verlander hasn’t been more valuable to the Tigers than
Jackson, but maybe he could have been under different circumstances.
Lester ran into a lot of tough luck early on, yet he’s pitching as well
as anyone in the league right now. Pavano… well, color me skeptical
about that one.

So, Greinke is still the clear No. 1, even though he has a 3.97 ERA
since the beginning of June. After that, it’s three pitchers for two
spots: Jackson, Hernandez and Halladay. Halladay has an advantage in
that he’s allowed just two unearned runs, compared to six apiece for
Jackson and King Felix. Halladay has also faced the tougher schedule:
his opposing batters have had a 761 OPS, compared to 756 for Jackson
and 749 for Hernandez. I think that gets him the second spot. The
remaining place on the ballot goes to Jackson. While FIP believes he’s
been helped a great deal by the players behind him, the Tigers aren’t
nearly as strong defensively as the Mariners or Blue Jays. He’s also
gotten less assistance from his bullpen.

AL Cy Young

1. Greinke
2. Halladay
3. Jackson

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