Jul 27, 2009, 10:26 PM EDT
Somebody has been stealing your research money, and this is what they came up with:
The Wall Street Journal reports that a pair of professors have invented a formula to predict whether a player will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Shockingly, it’s the players with awesome stats who will get in. But if a player’s stats are good, but not great, his chances aren’t as good. Stunned? Me, too.
Using a radial bias function network, a sort of neural net, Dr. Smith and Dr. Downey were able to identify statistical commonalities among Hall of Famers. As it turns out, hits, home runs and on-base plus slugging percentages are what count for hitters, while wins, saves, earned run average and winning percentage are what count for pitchers. All-Star Game appearances count for both, being especially valuable for hitters as they serve as a useful proxy for position.
The story claims that the formula is accurate 98.7 percent of the time. I’m guessing it missed out on guys who face some extenuating circumstances like, say Pete Rose. (Although Rose might yet get in).
I’m also guessing that the steroids issue could throw a massive wrench into things.
The whole thing is quite silly. But I guess it’s a better way to spend your time than, say, attending a Mets press conference.
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- Report: Brewers hire Craig Counsell to replace Ron Roenicke 24
- Brewers fire manager Ron Roenicke 53
- Jordan Walden lands on disabled list with biceps injury 11
- Rays place outfielder Desmond Jennings on 15-day disabled list with bursitis in his left knee 1
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 34
- Torii Hunter doesn’t care what Floyd Mayweather has done outside of the boxing ring 133
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman acknowledges team won’t pay A-Rod $6 million bonus for 660th home run 69
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal (363)
- Comment of the Day: do not underestimate the seriousness of the anti-DH crowd (201)
- Monday’s White Sox/Orioles game postponed due to ongoing protests and violence in Baltimore (162)
- Torii Hunter doesn’t care what Floyd Mayweather has done outside of the boxing ring (133)
- The Orioles will play to no fans tomorrow; this weekend’s series will move to Tropicana Field (125)