Jul 27, 2009, 10:26 PM EDT
Somebody has been stealing your research money, and this is what they came up with:
The Wall Street Journal reports that a pair of professors have invented a formula to predict whether a player will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Shockingly, it’s the players with awesome stats who will get in. But if a player’s stats are good, but not great, his chances aren’t as good. Stunned? Me, too.
Using a radial bias function network, a sort of neural net, Dr. Smith and Dr. Downey were able to identify statistical commonalities among Hall of Famers. As it turns out, hits, home runs and on-base plus slugging percentages are what count for hitters, while wins, saves, earned run average and winning percentage are what count for pitchers. All-Star Game appearances count for both, being especially valuable for hitters as they serve as a useful proxy for position.
The story claims that the formula is accurate 98.7 percent of the time. I’m guessing it missed out on guys who face some extenuating circumstances like, say Pete Rose. (Although Rose might yet get in).
I’m also guessing that the steroids issue could throw a massive wrench into things.
The whole thing is quite silly. But I guess it’s a better way to spend your time than, say, attending a Mets press conference.
- Clayton Kershaw cleared to begin rehab assignment on Friday at High-A Rancho Cucamonga 1
- Michael Pineda ejected in second inning for pine tar on neck, facing a 10-game suspension 82
- Mark Trumbo diagnosed with stress fracture in foot 7
- Josh Johnson needs a second Tommy John surgery 21
- Sammy Sosa wasn’t invited to Wrigley Field’s 100th birthday 45
- Josh Lueke is a rapist. How often does that bear repeating? (200)
- Benches clear in Pittsburgh after the Brewers’ Carlos Gomez bat flips a third-inning triple (183)
- “They Don’t Know Henry” (169)
- Chipper Jones chimed in on the Carlos Gomez incident (111)
- Michael Pineda ejected in second inning for pine tar on neck, facing a 10-game suspension (111)