Jul 27, 2009, 10:26 PM EDT
Somebody has been stealing your research money, and this is what they came up with:
The Wall Street Journal reports that a pair of professors have invented a formula to predict whether a player will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Shockingly, it’s the players with awesome stats who will get in. But if a player’s stats are good, but not great, his chances aren’t as good. Stunned? Me, too.
Using a radial bias function network, a sort of neural net, Dr. Smith and Dr. Downey were able to identify statistical commonalities among Hall of Famers. As it turns out, hits, home runs and on-base plus slugging percentages are what count for hitters, while wins, saves, earned run average and winning percentage are what count for pitchers. All-Star Game appearances count for both, being especially valuable for hitters as they serve as a useful proxy for position.
The story claims that the formula is accurate 98.7 percent of the time. I’m guessing it missed out on guys who face some extenuating circumstances like, say Pete Rose. (Although Rose might yet get in).
I’m also guessing that the steroids issue could throw a massive wrench into things.
The whole thing is quite silly. But I guess it’s a better way to spend your time than, say, attending a Mets press conference.
- Phillies wanted Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Julio Urias from Dodgers for Cole Hamels 26
- Matt Cain is going to pay a visit to Dr. Andrews 3
- The Nationals and Orioles dispute over TV money is about to explode 67
- The Red Sox are expected to deal Jon Lester and the Pirates are a “dark horse” 30
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 48
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter passes Carl Yastrzemski for seventh on all-time hits list 68
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence 91
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 50
- Expert’s Corner: How to troll fans of all 30 teams (201)
- Verducci: baseball should think about an “illegal defense” rule to combat shifts (165)
- “Caucasians” t-shirts are hot sellers on Canadian Indian reservations (157)
- Must-click link: sexual depravity — and possibly rape — in the minor leagues (100)
- Ray Rice is awful, but let’s not pretend baseball has a great record on domestic violence (91)