Jul 27, 2009, 10:26 PM EDT
Somebody has been stealing your research money, and this is what they came up with:
The Wall Street Journal reports that a pair of professors have invented a formula to predict whether a player will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Shockingly, it’s the players with awesome stats who will get in. But if a player’s stats are good, but not great, his chances aren’t as good. Stunned? Me, too.
Using a radial bias function network, a sort of neural net, Dr. Smith and Dr. Downey were able to identify statistical commonalities among Hall of Famers. As it turns out, hits, home runs and on-base plus slugging percentages are what count for hitters, while wins, saves, earned run average and winning percentage are what count for pitchers. All-Star Game appearances count for both, being especially valuable for hitters as they serve as a useful proxy for position.
The story claims that the formula is accurate 98.7 percent of the time. I’m guessing it missed out on guys who face some extenuating circumstances like, say Pete Rose. (Although Rose might yet get in).
I’m also guessing that the steroids issue could throw a massive wrench into things.
The whole thing is quite silly. But I guess it’s a better way to spend your time than, say, attending a Mets press conference.
- Kris Medlen leaves game with right forearm strain 17
- Cardinals sign Cuban middle infielder Aledmys Diaz to a four-year major league contract 60
- Cardinals and Matt Carpenter agree to a six-year, $52 million extension 12
- Jet Blue Park is absolutely incredible 59
- Gary Nolan one of many careers saved by Dr. Frank Jobe 17
- Ian Kinsler hopes Rangers go 0-162, calls GM a “sleazeball” (132)
- Albert Pujols was insulted when someone asked him if he can put up Mike Trout numbers (103)
- The politics of “The Cardinal Way” (67)
- Brandon Phillips: “How the [expletive] am I declining?” (61)
- Reporter calls Ian Kinsler as self-absorbed as A-Rod (60)