Aug 19, 2009, 1:32 PM EST
My entry this morning about the Cubs’ closer switch included a comment about how, despite 52 walks and 11 hit batters in 56.1 innings, Carlos Marmol “remains extremely difficult to hit” and is “the Cubs’ best bet for a shutdown guy.” That drew a few e-mails from Cubs fans, most of which basically noted that someone with such horrible control can’t be counted on in save situations.
I’m not necessarily disagreeing with that notion and did write in the same entry that Marmol “will obviously need to stop walking a batter per inning to have success” in the role. However, it seems as though people are focusing on Marmol’s control issues while overlooking just how unhittable he’s been. He’s the complete list of relievers from the past 50 years who’ve allowed fewer than 5.0 hits per nine innings while facing at least 250 batters:
YEAR H/9 Eric Gagne 2003 4.04 CARLOS MARMOL 2008 4.12 Jeff Nelson 2001 4.13 Billy Wagner 1999 4.22 Troy Percival 1995 4.50 Armando Benitez 2000 4.62 Armando Benitez 1999 4.62 Troy Percival 1996 4.62 J.J. Putz 2007 4.65 Armando Benitez 2004 4.65 Vicente Romo 1968 4.70 Jim Brewer 1972 4.71 Ugueth Urbina 1998 4.80 Andy Messersmith 1968 4.87 CARLOS MARMOL 2009 4.95
Marmol, Troy Percival, and Armando Benitez are the only relievers to allow fewer than 5.0 hits per nine innings in multiple seasons. Last season Marmol held batters to 4.12 hits per nine innings on a .135 batting average and this season he’s held batters to 4.95 hits per nine innings on a .163 batting average. Oh, and Marmol narrowly missed cracking the above list for a third time with 5.32 hits per nine innings in 2007.
Yes, throwing the ball over the plate will be very important for his chances of emerging as an elite closer, but you can often get away with poor control when you’re giving up one hit every two innings. Since becoming a full-time reliever three years ago, he has a 2.49 ERA and 277 strikeouts in 213 frames while allowing 4.7 hits per nine innings. He’s allowed more walks (128) than hits (112) during that time.
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