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The Red Sox are willing to offer Bay $60 million. They shouldn't do it.

Oct 30, 2009, 9:25 AM EST

That’s the rumor Jon Heyman is spreading: The Sox stand ready to offer Bay $15 million per year over four years.

This doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Why on Earth would the Sox make an offer to Bay before seeing whether or not Matt Holliday — an obvious upgrade over Bay — can be had?  If it is a legitimate offer, my guess is that the Sox are making it with some suspicion that Bay won’t take it, thereby allowing them to tell their fans that they made an effort to retain the popular Bay before letting him go elsewhere.  This is supported by Heyman’s saying in the same tweet that the Mets and Giants might offer Bay more.

Of course, there’s a good argument that even $15 million is too much for Bay.

  1. aceshigh - Oct 30, 2009 at 10:00 AM

    Ehh…
    I like Jason Bay…he’s obviously a talented player who put up great numbers, and he has a great attitude, but damn, is he STREAKY.
    He was practically nonexistent at the plate for almost two months of the season with Boston, and his non-production contributed mightily to us dropping like a stone in August. Once he got hot again, it was too late, and by the end of the year, he was back to feebly striking out at-bat after at-bat.
    Not sure Holliday is the answer either…he’s not really an American League-caliber hitter and his fielding is suspect.
    Tough call, tough call…I would not want to be Theo Epstein this off-season. Boston is going to be in quite a bind next year.

  2. comeonman - Oct 30, 2009 at 10:42 AM

    YANKEE FANS DON’T CARE ABOUT THE RED SOX PROBLEMS, THEY ARE PLAYING TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES RIGHT NOW SO THIS IS NOT A MAJOR NEWS STORY
    AND IS A COMPLETE WASTE OF TIME.LET THE RED SOX ENJOT GOLFING WHILE WE PLAY BASEBALL.
    BUH BYE

  3. aceshigh - Oct 30, 2009 at 11:09 AM

    And here we have a prime example of the typically grotesque and repulsive Yankee fan.
    Some of us are quite mentally capable of both following the World Series AND the off-season goings-on of our favorite teams.
    If you’re not, well then, I pity your lot in life.

  4. Church of the Perpetually Outraged - Oct 30, 2009 at 11:21 AM

    I know it may not seem like it, but not every one of us Yankees fans are like this clown. Maybe if we ignore him (her?), he (she) will go away?
    CC, could this is also be another Heyman – Boras ploy to pump up his (indirect) client? Since Holliday > Bay, and Heyman cough Boras cough is saying Bay is worth $15M/yr, wouldn’t you assume then that Holliday is worth more?
    If the Yanks are forced to pay say $20M/yr for Holliday, Boras and Holliday win for the monster contract and everyone else wins b/c more revenue sharing $ (and the reporters can keep writing their stories about the yanks buying winning teams). If the Sox are then able to steal Bay for $12/$14M (still overpriced, but not $20M worth) at say 3 years with a club option for 4, then mayb the Sox win as well?

  5. awineguy - Oct 30, 2009 at 12:40 PM

    Exactly how is Holliday “an obvious upgrade over Bay” ?
    Holliday spent his first 5 seasons in the number inflating confines of Coors Field and yet at the end of the day his career OPS is .933 as compared to Bay’s .896.
    This season despite all the press about what a great year Holliday had Bay’s OPS was better than the “obvious upgrade”.

  6. Floyd - Oct 30, 2009 at 1:58 PM

    Well, Holliday is two years younger. And he has a slightly better OPS+ in his career (1.33 to Bay’s 1.30), and that stat accounts for league/park effects. And his defense, while not great in that game against the Dodgers, is better (largely because Bay’s defense is so bad.)
    Craig probably shouldn’t have portrayed it as a slam dunk, but Holliday is definitely an upgrade.

  7. Church of the Perpetually Outraged - Oct 30, 2009 at 3:07 PM

    ugh, reply eaten by system.
    Holliday is two years younger, his AL OPS from last season was 125 compared to 132 for Bay, and is a far better defender based on UZR.
    While Bay has one more year in the majors, he’s a 21.7WAR player worth $81M vs Holliday who’s a 29WAR player worth $118M.
    not relinking fangraphs and bref.com

  8. Corey Kendall - Oct 30, 2009 at 6:42 PM

    I thought I heard something recently that the Blue Jays might make a push to pursue J-Bay via a trade with Boston. Either that or attempt to sign him as a free agent. Hmmmm, but $15 million per over 4 seasons? Could be too costly for a lot of teams out there. Wouldn’t shock me if he returns to Beantown, but we’ll see.

  9. Mike - Oct 30, 2009 at 9:54 PM

    Great fans? They couldn’t even sell out Game 2 and were quiet as church mice in Game 1. Give me a break, put down your Yankee Kool Aid and get me a Kit Kat bar. Your punishment is you have to blog on the NHL for the next two months.

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