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Phillies have a 12.5% chance of taking this thing

Nov 2, 2009, 10:57 AM EDT

Based on precedent anyway:

[The Phillies] are the 44th team to lose three of the first four games. Of the previous 43 teams, 41 played in a best-of-seven series. (The others were Boston in 1903, who won the next four games to take the Series, and the 1919 Reds, who won over the Black Sox).

Of the 41 teams who dropped three of the first four: They went 18-23 in Game 5. In Game 6, the remaining 18 teams went 8-10.

In Game 7, the remaining squads went 5-3. So, about one-eighth of the teams in this situation win it all. If you’re curious, the last seven teams to lose three of the first four couldn’t make the comeback.

With Cliff Lee on the mound you have to favor them to make it past hurdle number one, but I don’t see them winning out, no matter how much heart they allegedly have.

  1. jonny5 - Nov 2, 2009 at 2:37 PM

    All this trash talk about “class” from a bunch of classless fans. Isn’t it ironic? Let’s just leave it to the teams to SHOW US who the 2009 world champs are. All this trash talk is of no consequence whatsoever. I like to see all passion from both teams fans, but this is ridiculous people. Let the chips fall as they may! GO PHILLIES!!!

  2. dad - Nov 2, 2009 at 2:42 PM


  3. Cru11 - Nov 2, 2009 at 2:46 PM

    And to think that this huge argument could’ve been avoided if Manual would’ve started Lee in Game 4, thus evening the series at 2 a piece. Too little, too late.

  4. bob - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:01 PM

    Fillies fans are a crude bunch. You don’t hear Fillies S___k chants in NYC. City of brotherly love my a_s. Grow up and get a life.

  5. Pat - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:01 PM

    No one ever claimed that the Yanks weren’t classy. It’s the braying asses that support them that one has trouble with. Can you just picture a donkey bleating “26 world championships!!!”, as if trophy cases somehow factored into whether or not a team wins THIS year or as if Gherig, Mantle, Ruth, et al were still on the team.
    The Yanks are alright, their fans are boors.

  6. Pat - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:09 PM

    Who are the Fillies?

  7. willan - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:13 PM

    The filthys will lose dude get over it… you might well stop hangig out with lemmings too… it will lead to your demise…

  8. Shely - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:13 PM

    Alright this is getting boring at least for me. Lets all start thinking with our heads. The Phillys are lucky to be in this series. Where would they be without the late pickup of Lee? Anyway, the Yankees are in full control and 99% sure to win in 6 if not in 5. We have seen miracles before (remember the Mets miracle year?). Of course Philly doesn’t have two guys named Lee, or a Tom Seaver. The Yankees are the class of baseball, and should not blow this one. Lets get on with Football. Did you see that the Rams won one? Well they beat the Lions anyway.
    Shely in Cinti.

  9. Bob. Lipsett Sr - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:14 PM

    I’ve waited for 59 years for this series. I’ve always had heart that someday the National League Phillies would prevail in competetion against teams that will always move to where the money is. But the Yankees are in New York mainly due to the city of the financial capital of ther world. Every other team has vacated the city as the money wasn’t there for them to prosper. Towns that supported two major league teams are all nearly forgotten.
    For years before the Connie Mack “A,s” departed Philly, the years of Phillies was more of a outcast and were the butt of all the jokes. The 1950 Team made some look a little more to the Phillies. They have came a long way since Connie Mack Stadium at 21st & leighie. They now have loyale fans and some deep pockets for supporting this team. Leanold Tosse built the Eagles and now people with heart are trying to do what the Yankee have always done. The Yankees with their 105 wins against the Junior Circuit Hasn’t compared to the Senior Circuit wins of 98. With luck and smart playing and not overplaying their part we will see that 12.5% materialized into a World Series Campionship Team. At least that would be revenge for the drubbing in 1950. Up till now they have won one game and more hopefully to come.
    Since the late ’40s I have taken a ribbing for being a Phillies fan. Does anyone remember when years ago some fans wanted a change in uniforms and lego of the Phillies, wasn’t it being sold as the Philly “Blue Jays” That was beaten down, that went to Toronto and what did Carter do to wild man “Mitch” Win lose or draw I’ve wittnessed the two teams playing each other 59 years later. “GO PHILLIES” but may the best team win. I have lived in New England since ’68 and have never rooted for the Red Socks or Yankees. Philly will always be my “HOME TOWN” Signed the “Mule Team” as in twenty mule team.

  10. willan - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:16 PM

    The filthys will lose dude get over it… you might well stop hangig out with lemmings too… it will lead to your demise…

  11. Joseph - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:17 PM

    Wishful thinking at best… However, your loyalty to the 2008 champs is a plus for Philly fan base…After all, the Phills won all the marbles last year.
    By the way, Have you wondered how the Phillies got their name? Was it because it is tied to Philadelphia? Or; was it because the designation “Fillies” meaning several young female horses was under consideration and was passed over. If anyone has an answer I welcome your feed back.
    How was the name Phillies arrived at? Was not the original name the PHILS?
    Comments by others such as games are fixed etc…If I was a Psychiatrist I would stick my arm in the air like an Umpure and shout “IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR”. Right now I’m just waiting for tonight’s game to sbegin. If the Phils win…So be it! THat means I get to watch game 6 and then maybe game 7/ After that, I’m watching the Lakers!

  12. Robin - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:18 PM

    Philsin7, you’re calling NBC partial to the Yankees. Hilarious! What channel have you been watching? FOX Sports impartial? Joe Buck, impartial? Tim McCarver, impartial? All the derisive and negative things about ARod being in a slump when all his at-bats were strikeouts. Haven’t heard a word criticizing Howard for striking out. Howard’s not the Savior he was in the NLDS and the NLCS, is he? Looks to me like the NLCS series MVP needs something. Of course, he was “vindicated” by scoring last night when he didn’t even touch home plate. The Phillies can do no wrong but the Yankees are pure evil, yeah right! YANKEES IN FIVE! MARK MY WORDS!

  13. Ken in Florida - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:19 PM

    If the Phillies had gotten P-Rod instead of letting him go back to the Rangers they would already be champs.

  14. Jason - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:21 PM

    I understand that blogs are opinions, but at the very least, they should be well-informed opinions.
    If someone were to do some actual analysis on the Phillies chances (which is flawed within itself… I mean its baseball – anything can and will happen) then we should be looking at how many teams have won 3 consecutive games in a World Series.
    Of the 101 seven game World Series’ played since 1903, 62 teams have won 3 games in a row.
    The last 6 Series played involved a team that won at least 3 games in a row… the last being the 2008 Phillies.
    So, the Phillies actually have a 61.4% chance of winning the next 3 games.

  15. akbar - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:21 PM

    John – you should shut your rat-trap and stop making these silly predictions. The Yanks are the superior team – period

  16. Jason - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:23 PM

    I should revise my statement… the last team to win 3 in a row was the 2009 Yankees.

  17. Pepsilover1 - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:24 PM

    No you got it all wrong John… It’s the Yanks in 6 games…

  18. stom - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:26 PM

    according to their wiki
    “After being founded in 1883 as the “Quakers”, the team changed its name to the “Philadelphias”, after the convention of the times. This was soon shortened to “Phillies”.”Quakers” continued to be used interchangeably with “Phillies” from 1884 until 1890, when the team officially became known as the “Phillies”.

  19. Palm Beach Buckeye - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:27 PM

    Phillies in 9

  20. Phillie Fan - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:31 PM

    I am sorry that so many Yankees fans are blind to their own trash talking ways…
    Jimmy Rollins may have made a prediction, when asked, but he certainly did not initiate the question on Leno. And so what that he made the prediction? The media and the Yankees fans have totally blown it out of proportion.
    How about the NY papers putting Shane Victorino on their cover in a cheerleader outfit- and calling the team and their fans names BEFORE the series started?
    How about the NY papers trashing the city of Philadelphia BEFORE the series even started?
    How about the NY papers trashing the Phanatic (what did he ever do to anyone? Give me a break, what class that takes to make fun of a mascot!)
    Let me tell you, I was AT game three at the Bank, and there were many classless Yankee fans yelling all sorts of wonderful things too- so don’t think it is only Phillies fans that can lack decorum during a contest like this series. In fact, I got to see several fights instigated by the classy Yankee fans in my section– resulting in a bottle being thrown by the Yankee fan while his young children watched–and the end result of explusion from the game.
    So, if fan class is somehow a prerequisitte for winning this series–the series is definately still up for grabs.
    I know, as a Phillies fan, I do get tired of hearing:
    How great the Yankees are, and that they are entitled to win
    How lucky the Phillies are to be in the series
    How Yankees are all things good, and everyone else should just bow down in front of them
    How low class every and any thing Philadelphia is compared to the sainted NY Yankees and their fans.
    How about we just play ball?

  21. mikemfla - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:31 PM

    i say the yankees should be pitching gaudin tonight. if lee pitches his usual gem then there’s a good chance we lose, meanwhile you’re wasting burnett. if lee stumbles, i dont know that gaudin cant pitch well enough to keep us in.
    #2 if gaudin pitches tonight and yanks do lose you have a fully rested burnett at home against pedro. i’ll take that matchup again.
    #3 if it did go to a game 7, you have a fully rested pettitte and a 3 day rested sabathia against coles.

  22. mikemfla - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:35 PM

    cleveland had a $30 million dollar operating profit this year. yankees had a $50 million dollar operating loss. tampa had an operating profit this year as well. if cleveland fans want to complain they should be complaining about their ownership that wants to make sure they have a profit rather than winning on the field. with that $30 mil profit they could have signed at least 2 quality guys….probably even sabathia or lee.
    stop crying about what the yankees do with their money.

  23. comeonman - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:36 PM

    SO THE YANKEES HAVE A 87.50% chance of taking this thing ??

  24. jonny5 - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:40 PM

    I’m no “Jonny come lately”. I will stand by my team till the end. Until the fat lady sings.
    And heck no I’ve never wondered where the name came from. But now you’ve sparked my interest. A: After being founded in 1883 as the “Quakers”, the team changed its name to the “Philadelphias”, after the convention of the times. This was soon shortened to “Phillies”.[3] “Quakers” continued to be used interchangeably with “Phillies” from 1884 until 1890, when the team officially became known as the “Phillies”.
    Also i just learned, thanks to you…..
    The Philadelphia Phillies are a Major League Baseball team based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. They are the oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports, dating to 1883.

  25. Acoustictherapy - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:43 PM

    I love the Phils but heart and $2.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Denny’s. The Yanks are unbeatable this year, IMHO. After that bonehead defensive gaff the Phils made last night, I realized that not only do the Yankees have a fundamentally stronger team (find me a weak hitter in their offensive lineup) but they consistently make fewer mistakes than their opponents (and cash in on every one made against them, again, witness last night).
    Much as it pains me to say it, I have to go with the Yanks winning it all this year.

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