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Phillies have a 12.5% chance of taking this thing

Nov 2, 2009, 10:57 AM EDT

Based on precedent anyway:

[The Phillies] are the 44th team to lose three of the first four games. Of the previous 43 teams, 41 played in a best-of-seven series. (The others were Boston in 1903, who won the next four games to take the Series, and the 1919 Reds, who won over the Black Sox).

Of the 41 teams who dropped three of the first four: They went 18-23 in Game 5. In Game 6, the remaining 18 teams went 8-10.

In Game 7, the remaining squads went 5-3. So, about one-eighth of the teams in this situation win it all. If you’re curious, the last seven teams to lose three of the first four couldn’t make the comeback.

With Cliff Lee on the mound you have to favor them to make it past hurdle number one, but I don’t see them winning out, no matter how much heart they allegedly have.

  1. DM - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:44 PM

    Payroll, payroll, blah, blah. Nothing personal to those fine Phillies fans…but the Phillies suck and so do their fans. Thank you and have a nice day.

  2. Charlie - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:46 PM

    The difference in the salaries for the Phillies and the Yankees? Teixeira, Jeeter AJ and Arod….4 players = ~90M a year….so do those four players going anywhere else create World Series Champs?

  3. diehard Bucs fan - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:50 PM

    In the 1979 World Series, the Pirates were down 3 games to 1
    to Baltimore, and won the last three games!! So, it can happen!

  4. Tommy - Nov 2, 2009 at 3:54 PM

    Good Afternoon,
    None of the Yankee haters know what they are talking about. The Yankees have money because they win, they’ve always won. When you win, you get high attendance . . which is money. You also sell a lot of advertising. . .which is money. You also get a lot of media and TV coverage. . which is money. Money is invested in farming and attracting new talent, which eventually pays dividends in the form of wins and championships, which the Yankees are the best at.
    Facts for those of you who understand that statistics and hard numbers do the talking, not obnoxious 1 time flash in the pan winners whose players mouth off on the Jay Leno show about how they’ll let the Yankees win one:
    1. The New York Yankees have been in 40 World Series (including 2009), and have won 26 of them.
    2. The New York Yankees have more World Championships than any other team in the history of baseball, and are the “Winningest” team in the history of professional sports in terms of World Series Championships, Number of Pennants, Wins, and just about every offensive and defensive category in existence.
    3. The New York Yankees won in 1923, 1927, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1943, 1947, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1977, 1978, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000.
    4. The New York Yankees won the World Series 4 straight years from 1936-1939, then 5 straight years from 1949-1953, then 2 straight years from 1961-1962, then 2 straight years from 1977-1978, followed by 4 out of 5 in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000.
    4. A majority of the best players in baseball, as well as the records that accompany them are all New York Yankees: Hall of Famers include Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Lefty Gomez, Joe DiMaggio, Phil Rizzuto, Yogi Berra, Casey Stengal, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Thurmon Munson, Catfish Hunter, Reggie Jackson, Ron Guidry, Dave Winfield, and hopefully soon to be Don Mattingly, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, and A-Rod.
    This is the long way around of saying the Yankees are the best, have the most class, and are the most storied franchise in history.
    Maybe the Phillies and their fans should recognize that they’ve won only 2 World Championships, and are the “Losing-est” team in Major League history. Let’s not forget on July 16th, 2007, they suffered their 10,000th loss, the most of any team in United States Sports history. Let’s have some respect for the real team, New York.
    Tommy “Sick of the Bull-Sh@t” the Yankee fan

  5. Just Plain Tired - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:04 PM

    Manuel never should have played that loser Lidge and should have ONLY played Lee past night. The stats would now be 2-2. See you in Clearwater, this season is over.

  6. Thankgdformakingmeayankee - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:06 PM

    he moron.. those argued calls were legit.. i mean even as the yankees hater you are you have to realize that the HP ump was, if not outright cheating, giving calls to Blanton that CC wasnt getting over and over.. “Or A-rod” yea hat about A-rod?

  7. Tommy - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:09 PM

    Hey Phillies Fan,
    The Yankees have the right to brag, although they don’t. Their numbers speak for them. Most “Filly” fans are just jealous. The Yankees are the best, as you’re learning.
    Bye the way, let’s leave the comparisons of city versus city out of it. New York City is the capital of the world, and Philadelphia can’t hold a candle to it. You have cheesesteaks, the Liberty Bell, Independence Hall, and a baseball team that doesn’t know how to keep their mouths shut . . . . . New York has 8 million people, The Empire State building, Chrysler Building, Central Park, the Brooklyn Bridge, Madison Square Garden, 5th Avenue, and the BEST TEAM THAT HAS EVER BEEN CREATED IN HISTORY.
    P.S. New York will shut their mouths for them.
    Tommy “Sick of the Bull-Sh@t” the Yankee fan

  8. jrpiazza - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:10 PM

    Just tell us….in seven after you are down 3-1..What are you drinking…buddy. You have you World Series Championship….time to be de-throne

  9. pug_ster - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:13 PM

    The only way for those Phils win today is if they throw a couple more beanballs at A-Rod.

  10. KRW - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:15 PM

    Well, duh. They have to win 3 games. The bare, coin-flip odds of winning one game are 50%, the odds of winning two games in a row are thus 25%, the odds of three in a row are…12.5%. WTF is your point?

  11. chief - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:18 PM

    hey all u yankee bashers were are u now i wonder if your chests are pumped up or deflated between you and a lot of sportscasters who thought the yanks were to old to slow spoiled getting all the calls just look at some of the calls going against them granted they got maybe 1 or 2 their way and a rod getting plunked 3 times and not 1 yankee hurler getting any revenge i would love to see a philly gey plunked and see what happens after that

  12. jen - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:19 PM

    Please remember that Philadelphia is the birthplace of this nation, not NY. Talk what trash you must, but please NY fans don’t tell us we are the only one’s talking trash bc you are doing your fair share also. I am a Phillies fan, do I hope they win the WS this year yes, do I know it will be hard bc we are down 3-1 yes, but I am not giving up on them, just like any other fan wouldn’t give up on their team either. BTW we are a real team just like all of the other teams in MLB, are you suggesting that NY is the ONLY real team in baseball, bc if that is what you are infact saying then why don’t you win the WS every year is you are the only “real” team? enough of the nonsense see you guys at game 5 tonight.

  13. R.Alden - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:19 PM

    I get the biggest kick out of all the bantering between the Yankee fans and the Phillies fans, all the hub bub, stats, this player that player etc. The bottom line to me is so simple people can’t see the forest because the trees are in the way, it’s not the talent that’s winning, it’s the money, all the Yankee’s have to do is buy who ever they want and the rest is history. Probably to simple for some people to understand.

  14. wbahner - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:23 PM

    “Hall of Famers include….” – You might want to check your list of Hall of Famers there, Tommy….

  15. KimG - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:33 PM

    Phillies will win tonight with Cliff Lee, but it’s all set to go back to New York so the damn Yankees can win the whole thing there. Gotta make that money…

  16. Thankgdformakingmeayankee - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:41 PM

    “it’s not the talent that’s winning, it’s the money, all the Yankee’s have to do is buy who ever they want and the rest is history”
    wow… simply wow.. all im going to say there.

  17. Steve - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:44 PM

    One thing that disturbs me the most…You see in game one how Yankee stadium cleared out after the 6 inning? Did that even come close to happening in Philly? NO. I spoke with some Yankee fans and they said, “Why would we watch them lose?”
    Zero respect for those Yankees fans.

  18. A-Dog - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:47 PM

    Dude, the town of filthydelphia is know as a classless city full of blowhard a-hole fans. Get over it. When their team is winning they are the loudest jerks on the planet, and when they’re losing they don’t pay any attention to the team. With the exception of the eagles, when they’re losing they just boo their own team. Nice….

  19. Johnny dangerous - Nov 2, 2009 at 4:54 PM

    Very Disturbing to Read all the nasty comments about both teams. When did America’s National Pasttime get to be so acromious. I’ve Been a Loyal Phillie Fan for 19 years and not about to stop now, but you’ve got to admit the Yanks Really are giving us quite a run for the money. As the Song Says “Say alittle Prayer For You”. There still the 08 World Champions but they could stand to dump Hamels and maybe Big Mouth Rollins too.

  20. JC - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:00 PM

    Get over it, Philly fans. Your team never had a chance. Yes, your team is the defending champion but you didn’t play a real team last year. Played the Rays for crying out loud.

  21. Mark C - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:02 PM

    Not too hard to figure, without reference to old stats. The chances of winning any 3 in a row are exactly 12.5%, assuming even odds on each game.

  22. Mark C - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:12 PM

    *** Well, duh. They have to win 3 games. The bare, coin-flip odds of winning one game are 50%, the odds of winning two games in a row are thus 25%, the odds of three in a row are…12.5%. WTF is your point? ***
    I guess one interesting point would be that there is no statistical evidence for a lot of the sports-psychology BS that floats around. If there were anything to the idea that teams got on “hot streaks” or losing teams got discouraged or any of that, you’d expect to see results much worse than a coin toss. Apparently not. Hot and cold streaks have been debunked any number of times with much larger samples of course, but this is one more example.
    It also raises the issue of whether a 7-game series really tells anything about who is the better team. If you can’t tell anything about the last three games from the results of the first four, then are seven really any better?

  23. mjb - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:15 PM

    these philly fans are not only unrealistic but they are the bottom feeders of sport fans…nobody from any sport enjoys going to philly…dirty city,disgusting fans with absolutely no class…shooting of your mouth as a player (rollins) shows the arrogance of a bunch of losers…no you won’t win back to back and yes, the rest of the country, even those that love to hate the yankees, will be happy to see the philly fans in there place, which is the sewer…yeah philly you all have lots of class…too bad it’s all LOW…

  24. SS - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:18 PM

    Yankees and Phillies are NORTHEASTERN teams, who get recognition because of Media Bias in New York.
    The Nation’e population grows/moves south and west, but these baseball teams and media don’t have a clue about that.
    Nobody’s mooving to Pennsylvnaia or New York anyway–they are passe/trashy places to live.
    I dont care if either team wins/loses–
    Personally I’m a Texan–“Dont mess with Texas!”
    [No Texan nor Southerner wants to be a Philly or Yankee anyway–it would be an insult to our heritage!]

  25. nichoj19 - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:36 PM

    Tommy the Yankee Fan said everything that needs to be said!!!
    The Yankees are playing for their 27th, say it again, 27th World Championship…Philly has how many?? Just crying about how much money the Yankees spend isn’t the point…If players didn’t want to play in New York, they wouldn’t be there, no matter how much money they are offered.
    Where’s all the money Steinbrenner has paid out all these years to the other teams? Have your owners put that money back into their teams? The Marlins showed that you can buy a championship if you spend enough, ONE…that’s what Luria bought…don’t blame the Yankees for doing what every other sports fan wish their owner would do. The Yankees have had more than their share of busts too…look at Ed Whitson and Carl Pavano to name a few…but overall, they get what they pay for!
    The Yankees may win it tonight, maybe not…But overall, I can hear the fat lady starting to sing…or maybe it’s Dandy Don Meridith, tuning up “Turn Out The Lights, The Party’s Over”…

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