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Phillies have a 12.5% chance of taking this thing

Nov 2, 2009, 10:57 AM EDT

Based on precedent anyway:

[The Phillies] are the 44th team to lose three of the first four games. Of the previous 43 teams, 41 played in a best-of-seven series. (The others were Boston in 1903, who won the next four games to take the Series, and the 1919 Reds, who won over the Black Sox).

Of the 41 teams who dropped three of the first four: They went 18-23 in Game 5. In Game 6, the remaining 18 teams went 8-10.

In Game 7, the remaining squads went 5-3. So, about one-eighth of the teams in this situation win it all. If you’re curious, the last seven teams to lose three of the first four couldn’t make the comeback.

With Cliff Lee on the mound you have to favor them to make it past hurdle number one, but I don’t see them winning out, no matter how much heart they allegedly have.

  1. Phillies Fan - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:44 PM

    Bottom feeders… filthydelphia…unrealistic…disgusting fans…blowhard a-hole fans…wusses– these are just some of the comments made here about the Phillies, their fans and the city.
    Maybe we need to a definition of class for the slower students in this discussion?
    Oh, and a US History lesson would not hurt for some either.
    It always helps your argument when you stick to the facts and do not resort to name calling.
    Think your team is better? Fine, but to go after non-baseball play issues makes your point of view weak.

  2. V... - Nov 2, 2009 at 5:48 PM

    You said….
    “…Class is class? Mouthing off to the umpire after you’re called out on strikes looking (Teixiera, Posada, Swisher, etc.) . . . or Melky Cabrera fake-throwing the ball to fans after catching a fly for the third out . . . or A-rod . . . this is class? Please. Step down off the soap box and just enjoy the win….”
    I say…
    #1 That umpires strike zone was ALL OVER THE PLACE, as the FOX K-Zone clearly showed… Plenty of Phillies were jawing at him too..
    #2 Melky was fake throwing the ball to the fans, because those fans had been winging coins at him and Swisher all night. You wanna talk about classless, talk about those Phillies fans… Who the hell throws coins at outfielders trying to play???? They should have been ejected and arrested.
    #3 The soap box you speak of actually belongs to Rollins for bragging and making cocky statements he couldn’t back up… we’re just borrowing it to talk about a REAL team, with REAL class.
    Go Yankees!!!

  3. nichoj19 - Nov 2, 2009 at 6:07 PM

    Okay Phillies Fan…Let’s stick to the facts!!!
    Franchise Started: Yankees – 1901 Phillies – 1883
    Team Wins: Yankees – 9,575 Phillies – 9,038
    Team Loses: Yankees – 7,294 Phillies – 10,167
    Winning Pct: Yankees – .568 Phillies – .471
    Games over .500: Yankees – 2,281 Phillies – Nope (-1129)
    Pennants: Yankees – 40 Phillies – 7
    World Series Wins: Yankees – 26 Phillies – 2
    Hall of Famers: Yankees – 43 Phillies – 32
    Comparing the two franchises…Not even close…those are the facts!
    The Phillies are a great team, defending World Champions…got to give them their due…But…this year the 400 pound gorilla is back in the room…and it’s the New York Yankees!!! Go anywhere in the world and people know what the NY on the cap stands for…

  4. John - Nov 2, 2009 at 6:18 PM

    akbar, you should change your user name as it is sillier than my predictions. PHILLIES IN SEVEN!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!

  5. Pat - Nov 2, 2009 at 6:22 PM

    Wondering what ANY of this has to do with THIS season?

  6. Thankgdformakingmeayankee - Nov 2, 2009 at 6:33 PM

    Die hard Yankees fan here… while nothing is impossible.. i think one of the worst things that would come out of a Phillies upset would be you getting your own TV Show called “Mark My words” where you get to make rediculous predictions. LETS GO YANKEES 2009 AND BEYOND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. Omega - Nov 2, 2009 at 6:41 PM

    John the ‘Mark My Words’ guy, you are my new hero.

  8. Philly loser - Nov 2, 2009 at 6:59 PM

    Mark it in your toilet and flush it.

  9. Adrian - Nov 2, 2009 at 7:05 PM

    I really hate to jump into the fray here, but it seems that no one is going to call you out for a really dumb comment. If the Rays weren’t a “real” team last year, where in Hades does that leave the Yankees? I mean, I hate to shatter your silly illusions and all, but the Rays finished two slots above the Yankees in the AL East standings in 2008. Those “real” Yankees watched all of the 2008 playoffs from the comfort of their living rooms. Just sayin’…

  10. Charlie - Nov 2, 2009 at 7:06 PM

    Hey Einsteins from Philly…Lee may win tonight, and I did say may, but can he pitch two more games? So far that has had the only dominant outing by a Phillie’s pitcher, Yankees have now had two: AJ and Andy P…can your Philly math calculate those odds? Let’s see 3 games left, 1 dominating pitcher = Yankees in 6, maybe 5….

  11. mikemfla - Nov 2, 2009 at 7:41 PM

    well said

  12. mikemfla - Nov 2, 2009 at 7:42 PM

    that story is old

  13. Kelsos38 - Nov 2, 2009 at 8:04 PM

    Oh c’mon. Lighten up. Half the fun in sports is trash talk!I love Jimmy Ro, that guy is great. It’s not a matter of class, it’s just a different way to play the game. I mean, if you want to argue class, let’s have a discussion about A-Rod. Exactly! Not worth the discussion. Play ball and talk trash! It’s all good.

  14. kelsos38 - Nov 2, 2009 at 8:07 PM

    And sit Lidge. You can’t play Lidge. Lidge can’t pitch. In case you missed it, let Grandma pitch before you give Lidge the ball. I don’t want to sugarcoat it here, but Lidge shouldn’t pitch. Can’t pitch. I’m not even sure I’d let him suit up in case they completely ran out of pitchers and had to pick somebody. Any questions?

  15. kelsos38 - Nov 2, 2009 at 8:10 PM

    Didn’t Pettite give up 5 runs? Hell, as long as Lidge doesn’t have to pitch, I think Philly still has a chance.
    If you gotta go to Lidge this year, might as well kiss that tropy goodbye now. Sorry Brad, you were immortal last year. This year, someone put krypton in your jock. All bad.

  16. kelsos38 - Nov 2, 2009 at 8:13 PM

    I’d be all over John the Phillies in Six guy getting his own show! How’s this for an unrealistic prediction: Yankees cut payroll, win World Series!

  17. John - Nov 2, 2009 at 11:55 PM

    Not to nitpick or anything Thankgdformyyankeehand, or whatever your name is, but I believe the correct spelling is “ridiculous” not “rediculous.” One down two to go! PHILLIES IN SEVEN!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!

  18. John - Nov 3, 2009 at 12:40 AM

    Hmmmmm… math was never my strong subject but I’ll give it a shot. AJ pitched one good game and one bad game so far in the WS which means his percentage of good games he’s pitched is 50%. Now given that Pettite is only going on three days rest as well, along with the fact he’s old, he’ll pitch as bad or worse than AJ did tonight. In the end it’ll be the PHILLIES IN SEVEN!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!

  19. Ken in Florida - Nov 3, 2009 at 8:46 AM

    Phillies in 11! David my words!

  20. jonny5 - Nov 3, 2009 at 8:57 AM

    It’s 2009! All of these old stats are meaningless you dope!!! “Fans” such as yourself are exactly why the Yankees are despised by 90% of the country!!!! If MLB ever imposes a salary cap, the Yankees will never see another championship. If you want respect Tommy, shut that weenie-holster of yours that keeps yapping!!!

  21. Ken in Florida - Nov 3, 2009 at 9:40 AM

    The Phillies should have traded for Pudge Rodriguez. Then it would have been P-Rod vs. A-Rod.

  22. Brett - Dec 11, 2009 at 2:53 PM

    Such a usefule blog…wow !!!!

  23. negative calorie food list - Jan 28, 2010 at 4:06 AM

    Glad I stumbled across your site! Interesting discussion but don’t you think slightly narrow minded? Maybe it just seems that way to me. Let me read the post again.

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