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Jeter's contract is up next year. Any chance he bolts?

Nov 12, 2009, 8:55 AM EDT

The New York Daily News ponders whether, in the case of Derek Jeter, the Yankees will break their longstanding rule of not entering into contract negotiations with current players until their current deal is up.  The Captain is entering the least year of his ten-year, $189 million deal.  The most interesting question raised by the article is whether Jeter would actually take the bait from another team if he’s allowed to become a free agent:

Would the Captain test the market to punish the Yankees for stringing
him along? And if he did, is there a team out there with enough
resources – and guts – to try to put Jeter in another uniform to finish
his career? . . . With most teams looking to reduce payroll, it’s unlikely to think that
any other franchise would commit the kind of money it would take to
lure Jeter away from New York – assuming that money exists. But as one
GM pointed out, “All it takes is one team.”

I would place the likelihood of the Yankees letting Jeter go elsewhere — or Jeter wanting to go elsewhere, even for more money — at approximately .000000001%, and the only reason that number is above zero is to reflect the probability that a meteor strikes New York while Jeter is out of town between now and next fall, thereby eliminating the Yankees as a possibility.

The Yankees overpay for everyone, so there’s no reason to think that they won’t overpay to keep their most significant player since Mickey Mantle in the family for life. If they didn’t ask themselves whether or not Alex Rodriguez would still be a useful player in 2017, they sure as hell aren’t going to be too concerned if Jeter is going to be useful in, say, 2013 or 2014.

And is there any player in baseball who strikes you as more mindful of his legacy and place in history than Jeter? He more than anyone knows just how much him wearing a Giants or White Sox jersey would screw with the space-time continuum.  He will realize singular post-career value — actual value, historical value and psychic value — if he retires a life-long Yankee, and he knows it.

My prediction: unless Jeter utterly falls off a cliff in 2010, his contract negotiations next winter will take approximately ten minutes (if he falls off a cliff it’ll take 20 minutes). He will leave those negotiations with a contract that probably pays him a bit too much and probably pays him a bit too long.

And absolutely no one in the universe will be bothered a bit by it.

  1. YankeesfanLen - Nov 12, 2009 at 9:29 AM

    I agree 100%. This is the baseball no-brainer of all tim. $100M for 4 years- write the check George. And Mo’s his buddy, make sure he gets taken care of.We don’t want a bunch of kids on our “lawn”

  2. Old Gator - Nov 12, 2009 at 9:45 AM

    Craig, thanks for re-invoking the Alvarez Hypothesis to account for your statistical probability assertion.
    Unfortunately, after checking a few astrophysics, geology and paleontology web sites, I have discovered that the going estimation of another meteor of that size striking the Earth between the time that Jeter’s current contract expires and the beginning of Spring training the following season is actually fare tinier than the probability figures you offered. Jusk ask any triceratops.
    Ergo, Borg fans have every reason to be nervous. Or, as we like to say down here when setting out on a drive to the supermarket on our Cuban-driver infested highways, be afraid. Be very afraid.

  3. John - Nov 12, 2009 at 11:32 AM

    Jeter will bolt to the Red Sox… just don’t MARK MY WORDS!!! ;-)

  4. ohmygoodness - Nov 12, 2009 at 12:11 PM

    Old Gator, you should be ashame of yourself for the last line, I think it was disgusting. I can’t believe that this behavior is acceptable, it is 2009.
    Craig, is this the wonderful message you send to bloggers???

  5. comeonman - Nov 12, 2009 at 12:20 PM

    The YANKEES will get this done with Jetes, he is our modern day YANKEE HERO, he will be the Joe Dimaggio for our generation. Yogi is what 109 years old and he has to die sometime, I guess, Jetes will have to replce Yogi.How is it that Yogi is getting shorter and shorter, I fear one day he will shrink or vanish away rather then die, all you want to do is put him in your pocket and walk around with him all day, I can imagine the kicks I would get.Back to Derek, he may be the last player of this type that will come the yankees way, I know they will do the right thing otherwise we will have to riot in New York, Cah won’t play with this, he can get burned bad, In GOD U TRUST, IN Derek WE BELIEVE.

  6. Craig Calcaterra - Nov 12, 2009 at 12:24 PM

    Didn’t see that until you pointed it out ohmygoodness.
    Gator: I appreciate the humor in the rest of your comment, and I’m not here to be the P.C. police, but among the only rules I have around here is that posters refrain from ethic/racial/gender/sexual-orientation-related insensitivity.

  7. comeonman - Nov 12, 2009 at 12:25 PM

    mark my words, when is game seven of the world series between the yankees and phillies ?

  8. Church of the Perpetually Outraged - Nov 12, 2009 at 12:35 PM

    stuff

    and

    mark my words, when is game seven of the world series between the yankees and phillies ?Would the Captain test the market to punish the Yankees for stringing him along?

    Who’s has been “stringing” him along? You’d think a paper responsible for covering the team would realize they’ve done this with every single player on the team for the last 10+ years. They did it with Bernie when he threatened to sign with the Sox, they did it with Arod, hell they did it with Jeter on his 189/10 deal (and Torre, and Girardi, etc etc etc).

  9. Old Gator - Nov 12, 2009 at 12:45 PM

    Craig – my sincere apologies to anyone who was offended. I ask only that you try driving down here before you take my comments too seriously; it’s kind of a standing joke in Miami (as, for example, “Boston drivers” are in Boston) that even my many Cuban friends treat with mock pride and which the local improv comics milk mercilessly. Meanwhile, I guess I better reconsider my armory of comments about Boston and New Jersey drivers as well.

  10. John - Nov 12, 2009 at 2:08 PM

    It’ll be played in November of 2010… hopefully. *crosses fingers*

  11. Church of the Perpetually Outraged - Nov 12, 2009 at 2:48 PM

    Meanwhile, I guess I better reconsider my armory of comments about Boston and New Jersey drivers as well.

    Oh you can say it, they’re both terrible, although after living in the NE for most of my life, people in NC are doing their best to join them. Grr…

  12. Old Gator - Nov 12, 2009 at 3:20 PM

    Hey, thanks for the sanctions! Okay – I think Jersey drivers are so awful in part because they all want to show up in Bruce Springsteen songs before he gets old enough to start singing about motorized wheelchairs, in part because all the trichloroethane in their drinking water has affected their alleged minds, but mostly because they can barely see through the film of splattered mosquitos on their windshields. Boston motorists have the bitterness of the Beanbags’ history still lodged in their mitochondrial DNA and they’re taking it out on the world through their driving, but it’ll be at least a dozen years before the ones born after their championship get out on the roads under their own steam – and they’ll be teenagers at the time. It’s hopeless. Plus, all those stupid traffic circles rubbing salt in their psychic wounds – hell, they could have just paid the tea tax and they’d have had their idiotic British style road designs without the goddamned war.
    There. I said it. And I feel better now.

  13. Kevin S. - Nov 12, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    Jersey drivers are aggressive douches, but half of them are actually good enough to pull it off (or so I tell myself when I’m weaving down the Parkway doing 85). Worst drivers I’ve ever seen? Atlantans. Even the slightest bit of precipitation and the roadways come to a standstill. And don’t get me started on their utter lack of traffic planning. You’d think they’d have done a better job after Sherman gave them a chance to start over.

  14. mick-7-1961 - Nov 12, 2009 at 7:19 PM

    Jeter’s going nowhere. He’s the Yankee staple, the Captain of the ship and, unles it sinks (which it won’t do), Derek stays put.
    A-Rod will bolt before Jeter would ever even think about it.
    Any news on Matsui going to Seattle??

  15. Old Gator - Nov 12, 2009 at 7:29 PM

    All of the near-misses with tail ends and lampposts I’ve ever had in Atlanta were the result of some 9-plus local sweetheart (a type of creature in which Atlanta abounds) strolling down the sidewalk in an abbreviated dress or tight jeans, so I have to cut the local drivers up there some slack. With the exception of Vancouver in the summertime, I can’t think of anyplace I’ve ever been – and this includes the coastal communities from Santa Monica southward –
    with so many potentially disastrous roadside distractions. Crossing in front of you at a crosswalk doesn’t count, because you’re likely just to step down harder on the brakes.

  16. steve - Nov 12, 2009 at 10:11 PM

    I agree with Craig Calcaterra that Jeeter won’t bolt from the Yankees and he’s good as gold to remain until he retires. I also agree, there are practically no other teams he could go to, as money is no longer affordable by most teams. I agree with Craig that he most likely will be paid a bit too much and too long, as other athletes have shown in their remaining few years, production simply diminishes as one ages. Jeeter is no exception.
    Craig goes onto finish “And absolutely no one in the universe will be bothered a bit by it”. Well Craig, I’m bothered and so are many other people we know here in Michigan, sorry to disagree with you, salaries have just got far out of whack! So there, you need to watch what you say and write. One man isn’t worth that kind of money! And money doesn’t necessarily guarantee a W.S. ring year in and year out. Perhaps when the Steinbrenner clan either runs short of cash or simply disappears, baseball will be at a crossroads. Will another Czar show up or will baseball become more evenly matched? I said this before and I will say this again…I simply hate the Yankees!

  17. AJ Gallo - Nov 12, 2009 at 10:38 PM

    “I would place the likelihood of the Yankees letting Jeter go elsewhere — or Jeter wanting to go elsewhere, even for more money — at approximately .000000001%, and the only reason that number is above zero is to reflect the probability that a meteor strikes New York while Jeter is out of town between now and next fall, thereby eliminating the Yankees as a possibility.”
    I appreciate the minimal mathematical improbability of it, but I personally would put it at all zeroes……No chance, no how, no way, uh-uh, forget it………….

  18. Kevin S. - Nov 12, 2009 at 11:57 PM

    My time in Atlanta stems from visiting my girlfriend, so I’m not allowed to be distracted by such things. :P

  19. John - Nov 13, 2009 at 6:33 AM

    JETER’S A LIFE-LONG YANKEE!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!

  20. skip7 - Nov 13, 2009 at 9:01 AM

    Seeing Jeter in another uniform would have been like seeing Mantle or DiMag in another team’s uniform…ain’t gonna happen. In this age of money talks and to hell with loyalty, I think Jeter is one of the exceptions to the rule. Class act.

  21. Geek - Nov 13, 2009 at 1:10 PM

    Jetter is very smart. He is going nowhere else.
    Next stupid question?

  22. Chris - Nov 13, 2009 at 1:57 PM

    I certainly won’t complain about paying Jeter too much for too long – especially because I’m a Yankee fan. If major league baseball wants to stop overpaying for players, they have a problem – because they treated players like dirt throughout most of the 20th century, players found more effective ways to extract money from owners pockets. And who can blame them for doing so? So if Jeter is treated well *and* is well paid for a full, pinstripe only career – bully for Derek!!!!
    Regarding the comment about no player being worth the money, I have to disagree – players are valued by how many butts are in the seats due to their presence. If major league baseball really wanted teams to compete, they’d eliminate the luxury tax – and allow teams to move to where the money is. Can we really say that cities like Pittsburgh deserve baseball teams, while counties like Brooklyn, NYC have supported teams in the past (with greater population). Let the teams go where the money is, and put minor league teams where the money isn’t. This way, both owners and players will have to earn their keep, while competition keeps things in check. (And yes, Jeter would still play for the Yankees regardless of money – he has that kind of class as a veteran ballplayer.)

  23. Pedro - Nov 13, 2009 at 3:36 PM

    I agree that Jeter won’t go anywhere. He’s a Yankee for life – and thank God for that!!
    But… let me just throw one very remote possibility out there. And when I say remote, I mean even less of a .000000001% chance. Derek grew up in Michigan. And although Derek was always a Yankee fan, his dad was a Tigers fan. I could see classy Derek Jeter wanting to play the last year of his hall-of-fame career in a Detroit uniform as a tribute to his dad.
    Like I said – less than a .000000001% chance. But for a class act like Jeter, it’s the only non-Yankee scenario that would not surprise me.

  24. Bermie - Nov 13, 2009 at 3:43 PM

    comeonman:
    LOL!!!
    Thanks , that was great!

  25. TF in Tampa - Nov 13, 2009 at 6:33 PM

    First Baseball:Jeter finishes his career in Da Bronx.[if it ain't broke, don't fix it]. Then he retires to his monstrosity of a new home, 32,000 sq.ft. excuse me, in Tampa where he waits for any and all offers to Manage, Endorse, etc… but why should he bother, because his final contract w/the Yanks leaves him plenty to just go off and marry some lucky lady and raise little Dereks. He’ll be just fine, the Steinbrenners will reward him for his hard work and loyality to the Yanks and his everloving NY fans.
    RE: DRIVERS… I went to school in Boston, them beantowners just go fast to just test the cops, but the cops don’t care.
    In Jersey, its all about winning the rat race. Just when I thought I won the race, along come faster rats.
    In Florida, its all about advoiding the old folks, the drunks and stoners, and arriving alive they say.

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