Comments on: Handicapping the Halladay chase

By: nutritionists

nutritionists — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 16:47:27 +0000

It appears that you have placed a lot of effort into your article and I require more of these on the net these days. I sincerely got a kick out of your post. I don’t really have much to say in response, I only wanted to comment to reply wonderful work.

By: Isaiah Pearyer

Isaiah Pearyer — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 13:28:48 +0000

Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon.

By: evan penn

evan penn — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:29:10 +0000

Pythagoras and Dave are each 100% correct. The comments on the other side actually had me holding my sides with laughter.
“Has it ever occurred to you that maybe some equally skilled people could have the same odds of winning? When you have say 10 racers, then the two best could each have a 60% chance of winning (=120%).”
….this has to be the funniest comment of them all. I suspect this guy is a writer for SNL, he couldn’t have been serious.

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:30:51 +0000

As a teacher, I find this string of comments very depressing. Odds, probability, percentages – no matter what you call it, you are talking about the same thing. You can not have percentages that add up to greater than 100% if there is only one winner. If it were possible to have two winners, then the odds could add up to greater than 100% because there would be overlap between the successful outcomes of the different competitors. Saying that two racers in the same race, no matter the number of competitors, each have a 60% chance of winning is like saying that both tails and heads have a 60% chance of coming up when you flip a coin. It’s just inherently impossible.

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:54:21 +0000

“Able to hold on to much of their elite young talent in the Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies still have quite a bit to offer for Holliday”
Who is the moron who wrote that little tidbit? Hello, wake up. You’re talking about Roy Halladay, not Matt Holliday. This article stinks.

By: XTrust_No1X

XTrust_No1X — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:37:13 +0000

“Now onto baseball, I’d like to recite the prayer I said last night. “Dear Lord please don’t allow the evil Empire to acquire Roy Halladay,If you are as much of a baseball fan as I’d like to think you are you’ll like to keep the playing field at least somewhat level.”
Hey Jonny5…I hate to break the news to you, but, God is a fan of the Greatest Professional Sports Franchise in History, the 27 time, World Series Champions, the Legendary New York Yankees! We, the Greatest fans in the World are proud to include God and his Son Jesus, his Mom & Pop, The 12 Apostles, Davey & Golith and all the Angels in Heaven as few members of the New York Yankees Universe! The only ones that root for your team, that if I remember correctly (from another message boards), are the Phillies. And, the only angels that root for them are the Hells Angels. Only the fans of the greatest team in History are associated with everything that is good in this world and the one we go to after we leave thse mortal bodies. There, now that we got that straightened out, do us a favor, if you’re going to pray to our lord, and you’re NOT a fan of the 27 time, World Series Champions, the Legendary New York Yankees, you must pray to the Yankees fans, and we;ll get your message through to the big guy!

By: jonny5

jonny5 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:52:17 +0000

Now onto baseball, I’d like to recite the prayer I said last night. “Dear Lord please don’t allow the evil Empire to acquire Roy Halladay,If you are as much of a baseball fan as I’d like to think you are you’ll like to keep the playing field at least somewhat level. They already have the most skilled players that could be purchased. Isn’t it a sin how much money they pay out already?? Amen.”

By: jonny5

jonny5 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:44:05 +0000

Wrong!!!!Has it ever occurred to you that maybe some equally skilled people could have the same same odds of winning? When you have say 10 racers, then the two best could each have a 60% chance of winning (=120%). Your analogy blows and lacks any sense of intelligence, besides your very own sense of having more than you ever will. “Pythagoras” LMAO!!!

By: XTrust_No1X

XTrust_No1X — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:06:42 +0000

The Yankees will take on the hugh contract of Vernon Wells, then the Jays will send Roy Halladay to the Yankees, with the Yankees only giving up a couple of essentially secondary minor leaguers and cash for the second best pitcher in the MLB(behind CC Sabathia)in Roy Halladay and the Yankees 28th 29th and possibly 30th World Series Championships. Thanks Jays! Now, all the Yankees have to do the rest of this 2009 off-season is to sign John Lackey, Chone Figgins, resign Johnny Damon and future Hall of Famer Andy “Mr Clutch” Pettite. Then,after the 2010 Season, Andy Pettite will retire, thus opening a spot on the World Champions rotation for their next big Free Agent signing of Cliff Lee, thus completing the Yankees rotation of:
2010 Yankees Rotation
CC Sabathia
Roy Halladay
AJ Burnett
John Lackey
Andy Pettite
2011 Yankees Rotation
CC Sabathia
Roy Halladay
AJ Burnett
John Lackey
Cliff Lee
Relievers
Joba
Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Brian Bruney
Phil Coke
Chad Gaudin
Damaso Marte
David Robertson
then the Greatest closer in MLB History
Mariano Rivera
Yankees lineup
Chone Figgins
Johnny Damon
Derek Jeter
A-Rod
Tex
Wells
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Yankees Bench
Ramiro Pena
Brett Gardner
Francisco Cervelli
Melky Cabrera
Juan Miranda
Austin Jackson
Introducing the Next New York Yankees Dynasty!!! GO Yankeess!!!

By: bob l

bob l — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:06:36 +0000

holiday and maybe sign wolf, and I am sure there are a few out there willing to go will less money….guess baseball has not heard that we are in a recession…..but if the dodgers get the pitching and of course a 2nd base who can hit…dan u. down in florida is a 2nd baseman who hits 30 plus home runs a year and of course he would make a good fit in the west…….you can never have enough hitting…manny will do well in the first half, but his knees are going as all knows…look at the way he plays outfield…so his percentage will only drop in the second half…so they need to get a big lead and keep it this year…and who knows the world series flag could be in the west……

By: bob l

bob l — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:01:19 +0000

I agree with you….the dodgers get starting top of the line pitchers, and if they all show up with there A game…the dodgers could win it all…..

By: Pythagoras

Pythagoras — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:22:22 +0000

Kind of surprised by the pushback, here. Wasn’t trying to be a jerk about it, and don’t even see what was snarky. I was just pointing out that a result of over 100% probability is untenable.
Since there’s still some confusion, I’ll try again. As Matthew S has pointed out, odds are percentages. A 20:1 shot is a 5% chance of winning. And when you are adding up the percentages of winning, and one of those options is the field, then 100% should be the total. (If you don’t have an option for the field, then the result can be *under* 100%, that’s fine.)
Let’s make this easier. Let’s say there are two people in a race. I say both have a 75% chance of winning. That’s silly, right? If one has a 75% of winning, then by necessity the other has a 25% chance of winning. This type of exercise is exactly the same, simply with more entrants. The process of assigning the odds may be entirely subjective in this case, but if one is going to go through the bother of the exercise, one might as well go through the bother of making the exercise make sense, right?

By: rotohead

rotohead — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 11:29:01 +0000

Back to original point – I think when push comes to shove, the Jays will want to deal him out of the division. Dodgers are on the cusp of winning it all, have the means with players and cash.
LA makes the most sense…

By: Spice

Spice — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 10:26:14 +0000

You are absolutely right, I had not had enough coffee when I wrote that.

By: Matthew S.

Matthew S. — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 10:15:01 +0000

“Otherwise you could never have a 200:1 shot in a horse race and that is what this is after all.”
A 200:1 shot has a .5% chance to win the race. I don’t see how that disproves Pythagoras’s snarky comment.
To be fair, with so many teams in the market for a #1 pitcher, it’s hard to handicap the field effectively. Maybe there are 1.34 Roy Halladays out there to acquire. I’d say Lackey is worth at least a third of Roy Halladay.

By: KingJoe!

KingJoe! — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:30:09 +0000

Wow Pythagoras, you don’t represent well at all. So what you are telling everyone is that you came upon the screen name “Pythagoras” and thought “wow, everyone will think I am really smart”.
Trouble is that when you are going to choose a great Mathematician as your screen name, you should not make a 3rd grader like comment about math and percentages. Spice cleared up the math, so i will just go now.

By: Spice

Spice — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 07:24:12 +0000

It’s odds (in other words probability), not percentages. As this is odds weighted by OPINION as opposed to a calculation of probability based on the total number of teams (Minus the Jays, minus 5 or 6 teams that have said they will not be in the bidding) it doesn’t have to add up to 100%. Otherwise you could never have a 200:1 shot in a horse race and that is what this is after all. Odds are not distributed to equal 100% but you are too busy knowing everything to know that.
I do not picture the Yankees going after Halladay with both barrels and I would hate to see them trade Austin Jackson. It would give the Yankees a ridiculous starting 4:
Sabathia
Halladay
Burnett
Pettitte
But still no number 5 and a weakened bullpen.

By: Spice

Spice — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 07:23:26 +0000

By: Pythagoras

Pythagoras — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 00:47:45 +0000

The cumulative percentages add up to more than 100%. You might want to take another whack at distributing the odds.