Dec 14, 2009, 6:34 PM EST
ESPN’s Jayson Stark, who still has some of the best Phillies sources in the business from his days in Philadelphia, appears to have the best handle on the Roy Halladay trade at the moment.
According to his sources, the deal isn’t yet done. Besides the need for Halladay to agree to an extension — reportedly in the three-year, $60 million range — the Jays and Phillies are still fighting over a prospect.
It breaks down like this at the moment:
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Mariners prospect, Mariners prospect
Mariners: Cliff Lee
Blue Jays: Phillippe Aumont (20, from Sea), Travis d’Arnaud (20, from Phil), Phillies prospect
Outfielder Michael Taylor might be that last prospect going to Toronto, though Stark believes the Jays are holding out for fellow outfielder Domonic Brown, the Phillies’ top position prospect. Taylor is no slouch — he ranks as one of top 10 outfield prospects in the minors — but it makes sense that the Phillies would want more. Aumont was turned into a reliever last year, and he’d be an injury risk if thrust back into the rotation. He could be a dominant late-game reliever, but he’s hardly a sure thing. D’Arnaud, a 2007 supplemental first-round pick, has been something of a disappointment and doesn’t currently project as a starting catcher in the majors, though he’s just 20 and there’s plenty of time for that to change.
There’s been little word about the other Mariners properties in the deal. The assumption when the reports leaked was that Brandon Morrow would be involved, and he could make sense in Philadelphia as a setup man. However, if Stark is right that it’s prospects going to the Phillies, then he wouldn’t qualify. Reliever Shawn Kelley also doesn’t fit the prospect description, but he’s another pitcher the Phillies should be interested in. Young outfielder Michael Saunders would be a nice piece for Toronto, but not for the Phillies. Carlos Triunfel’s upside would play anywhere.
That there’s still so much we don’t know makes it too early to name winners and losers here. However, I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to suggest that the Mariners did a great job managing to acquire Cliff Lee when they have so few star prospects to deal from. Also, I’ll be very disappointed with the Jays’ haul if they only end up with Aumont, Taylor and D’Arnaud.
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