OK, so it’s not officially a four-team deal, but I’ll treat it like one, since it’s that much more fun.
First, a recap of who is landing where (ages as of Opening Day, 2010):
Phillies
RHP Roy Halladay (32, from Blue Jays)
RHP Phillippe Aumont (21, from Mariners)
$6 million (from Blue Jays)
RHP J.C. Ramirez (21, from Mariners)
OF Tyson Gillies (21, from Mariners)
Mariners
LHP Cliff Lee (31, from Phillies)
Blue Jays
RHP Kyle Drabek (22, from Phillies)
INF Brett Wallace (23, from Athletics)
C Travis d’Arnaud (22, from Phillies)
Athletics
OF Michael Taylor (24, from Phillies via Blue Jays)
In truth, it’s three two-team deals.
The Phillies give up one top-five pitcher a year away from free agency in exchange for another and downgrade their minor league system in the process. They think it’s worth it since Halladay is the better of the two and will sign the cheaper extension. I think they see the second factor as being more important than the first, and I’m not going to be convinced that they were better off doing this than they would have been keeping Lee and trading Joe Blanton to make room for Halladay.
Again, the Halladay trade is simply a two-team transaction. The Phillies didn’t need anyone from the Mariners to make it work. The Blue Jays even willing to kick in enough cash to bring Halladay’s 2010 salary down to $9.75 million. Instead of trading Lee, who is due $9 million, the Phillies could have dealt Joe Blanton, who will make $7.5 million in arbitration. Such a move probably could have produced the eighth-inning setup man that team still needs now. And when Lee proved impossible to sign next winter, the Phillies would have received two draft picks for him.
It’s not necessarily a bad trade, mostly because Halladay was willing to sign the below market extension. But the Phillies had a chance to put an even better product on the field in 2010 and passed. Plus, they’ve lost a top talent in Drabek, who was shaping up as the ideal replacement for Lee in 2011.
Phillies grade: C-
I called the deal a steal for Seattle last night and the addition of Ramirez to the package doesn’t change much.
Concerns about Aumont’s durability and a desire to see him in the majors as soon as possible caused the Mariners to move the big right-hander to the pen last season. He posted a 3.88 ERA and a 59/23 K/BB ratio in 51 innings between Single-A and Double-A. The 2007 first-round pick also pitched in the AFL and, despite averaging 95 mph with his fastball, he gave up 16 earned runs in 12 innings.
If the Blue Jays had acquired Aumont, I imagine they would have put him back into the rotation. The Phillies, though, may well keep him in the pen and hope that he develops into a long-term closer. It’s certainly a possibility, and I’d rank him among the game’s top-five relief prospects. However, he comes with plenty of risk.
Ramirez went 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA for high-A High Desert last season, but that was as a 20-year-old pitching in an extreme offensive environment. He had a 3.09 ERA in road games, even though the California League is filled with nice parks for hitters. That his slider hasn’t developed into a big strikeout pitch is a concern, but he has a nice arm and plenty of time left to improve.
Gillies was a teammate of Ramirez last season, and he took advantage of the very favorable conditions to hit .341/.430/.486. Eight of his nine homers came at home. Gillies is never going to hit for real power, but he does have a knack for getting on base and plenty of speed, though he’s a mediocre basestealer (he was 44-for-63 last season). The package should make him a fourth outfielder in the majors, but he’s an overachiever and it’s possible he’ll continue to surprise.
And that’s it. Three minor leaguers, only one of whom will make any of this winter’s top 100 prospects lists. That the Mariners could get Lee and keep Brandon Morrow, Michael Saunders, Shawn Kelley, Carlos Triunfel and Adam Moore makes this a huge win for the Mariners. They’re only spending $9 million on Lee, so there still in position to add one more key player this winter. There’s every reason to think that the team will contend next year, and on the off chance that things blow up, Lee should bring a superior package in return at the trade deadline. Just the draft picks the Mariners would get for losing Lee next winter would recoup a great deal of what they lose with the trade.
Mariners grade: A
The Blue Jays had to settle for two top prospects as the return for Halladay, and neither is the up-the-middle acquisition that should have been a priority.
Still, I’m not sure they could have done better.
In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Drabek went 12-3 with a 3.19 ERA and a 150/50 K/BB ratio in 158 innings between Single-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading. His fastball-curveball combination gives him top-of-the-rotation ability, though he still needs to come up with a better changeup to counter left-handed hitters. Lefties hit .322 off him in Double-A last season. A half-season in Triple-A will surely do him some good, and it figures that the Jays will give it to him.
Getting Wallace from the A’s for Taylor is interesting. Third base is a big hole in the Oakland organization, so the A’s wouldn’t have made the move if they thought Wallace could stay there. But it’s been assumed since the day he was drafted 13th overall by the Cardinals in 2008 that Wallace would end up at first or at DH. Wallace delivered a .293/.367/.455 line in his first full pro season, most of which was spent in the PCL. He’s been a disappointment in the plate-discipline department since being drafted, as he’s amassed a 155/66 K/BB ratio in 734 at-bats. Wallace doesn’t project as a 30-homer guy, so he’ll need a .380-.400 OBP to become a star and he’s not showing that ability yet. I still like him as a long-term regular, but I’d put Taylor slightly above him at this point.
D’Arnaud, a 2007 supplemental first-round pick, hit .255/.319/.419 for Single-A Clearwater in the pitcher friendly Florida State League last year. He’s still raw as a catcher, though scouts like his tools. At this point, there’s not enough to his game offensively or defensively to project him as a regular. However, he’s still awfully young and catchers tend to develop slowly.
It’s well worth noting that the Blue Jays also gave away $6 million here. Now, that doesn’t take away from their non-existent chances of contending in 2010, but it’s $6 million that can’t be spent on draft picks or international signings. It’s a big loss, and it drops the grade here.
Blue Jays grade: D
The A’s apparently injected themselves into the deal at the last moment, taking the prize from last summer’s Matt Holliday deal with the Cardinals and turning him into Taylor, a chiseled 6-foot-6 outfielder who has put up some of the best numbers in the minors over the last two years. Taylor hit .346/.412/.557 for two A-ball teams in 2008 and .320/.395/.549 between Double- and Triple-A last season. He doesn’t hit for quite as much power as one would expect given his frame, but he also doesn’t strike out very much and he has an above average walk rate and plus speed. It’s just too bad he’s not quite a legitimate center fielder. He’ll probably settle into right, and he could be ready to compete for a job in spring training, though the A’s have several options at the position. I doubt he’ll be quite the player his minor league numbers suggest, but he should have a nice run as an above average regular.
Athletics grade: B
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- paul milkie - Dec 15, 2009 at 11:39 PM
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Hey K head, if you had a clue, you’d know that Seattle is absolutely CASH RICH. They freed up 20mil alone when Jojima went back to Japan. Dumping Bedard saved them another 12. there’s plenty of cabbage to sign Lee to a long term deal.
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- T-Ry - Dec 16, 2009 at 12:55 AM
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The Jays have three “terrible defenders” in the outfield? Have you never seen Vernon Wells play a game, or did making that claim just fit your purpose better? His batting has slipped badly the last few seasons, but he’s still a 3-time Gold Glover who will do whatever it takes to try and make a play in centre field. Saying that he’s “embarrassing” himself in a defensive position he excels at, well, thanks for demonstrating that you don’t know what you’re talking about.
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- wicked wonders - Dec 16, 2009 at 9:42 AM
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What everyone is forgetting is the ball park Lee is going to be playing in next year. The most forgivable park in the major leagues. His ERA is going to be a sub 3 for sure just a question of how high over the 2 it will be.
Lee will get 20 a season for 5 years after this year in Seattle.
E.G. Jarrod Washburn
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- K Head - Dec 16, 2009 at 10:33 AM
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Bill – I still wouldn’t call it a “steal” – anyone they get from Lee either walking or getting traded midyear isn’t going to be much, esp if it’s 2 picks from a upper tier/rich team.
Hey Paulie – if YOU had a clue, you’d know that even though SEA is “cash rich”, there’s a fella named Felix Hernandez whose contract is up soon as well – they aren’t paying for Felix AND Lee in 2011, unless you consider them to be the NW version of the SF Giants (where is the offense?). Lee will probably end up with his buddy CC in NY as Pettitte’s replacement in 2011.
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- hop - Dec 16, 2009 at 10:51 AM
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K Head you are 100% correct, for the M’s this is a 1 year rental because everyone with a clue knows the M’s won’t be able to sign Lee past this season and with that said starting pitching wasn’t the problem for the M’s last year. Scoring RUNS WAS! The phillies got a “push” here, gave up a good pitcher and got one in return with more miles on him but i think its still a push.
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- TigerS Boy ToY - Dec 16, 2009 at 12:19 PM
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BLUE JAYS GOY HOSED AND THEY GAVE UP
6 MILLION, ALL TO TRADE HOLIDAY.
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- lARRY - Dec 16, 2009 at 12:37 PM
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The Phillies did try to move Blanton, without success.
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- Kjuggs - Dec 16, 2009 at 12:57 PM
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As a Phils fan. I gotta say that the Phillies upgraded on this one; Drabek is going to be special, but that’s if he recovers nicely from Tommy John surgery. I don’t know if giving away Taylor was very smart, but at least the Phillies didn’t give away Dominic Brown. How can you argue against trading for and signing THE BEST pitcher in baseball to a longterm deal? In case you guys haven’t been following, Lee was not going to fit into the Phillies’ longterm plans, with Hamels, Utley, Howard, Werth, Rollins, and Victorino already on the payroll for a while. Halladay is going to get the Phillies back to the WS; does anybody really doubt that he’ll perform less in October?? If the Phillies win the WS, then they get an A+; if they get to the WS, they get an A; anything less than that in 2010, they lose on the trade. I’m interested in seeing that 6’7 JC Ramirez; the clips of him on Baseball Tonight were impressive, and that Phillippe Aumont is going to be a big-time pitcher as well; did anybody else watch him in the WBC? And oh, btw, Gillies has averaged over .320 in the minors, including hitting .340 last season.
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- Tom R - Dec 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM
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THANK YOU!! It took 32 comments until someone pointed out the major flaw in the “Phillies C- argument” Most of Matthews argument is that they should have kept Lee and traded Blanton. They did try, they could not.
If you want to argue in light of that, it’s a C-, then go ahead. But that is not what was done here, not at all.
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- Jeff - Dec 16, 2009 at 1:24 PM
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you obviously don’t know much about baseball Matthew Pouliott. The Phillies and Jays are the ones who come out on top here. The Phillies get the best pitcher in baseball, the one they really wanted over Lee anyway. The jays get exceptional prospects, D’arnaud and Drabek are studs, (not too distant)future allstars. The Mariners are the ones who look stupid here. They basically gave up a lot to get 1 year of a good pithcer(not a great pitcher- the only reason he even won the cy young was becuase he struggled so bad the 2 years before his cy cyoung year, including a lengthy stay in the minors that he was the #5 starter and therefore he was matched up against the other teams scrub #5 starters the whole year. If he was at the top of the rotation that year against the REAL ACES, he does not win 20, maybe12-15. He’s good, he helped me win my fantasy league that year he won the cy, but I do not, and will not ever consider him an ACE) Lee basically said he wouldn’t sign for anything less than CC money (23 mil a year, and he’s not worth close to that). That’s why this deal happened, and thats why Seattle will lose him after 1 year and they will have nothing to show for it, (except for a couple of draft picks who won’t contribute for the next 5 years) This time next year Lee will be signing with whichever team is stupid enough to give him 20 mil a year. Its good for the Mariners this year, I will grant you, but you have to look long term, they get the raw deal on this. Ruben Amaro is an exceptional GM, and I’m a braves fan…I hate the philles but I have to acknowledge good business sense.. It’s common sense..
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- Joey - Dec 16, 2009 at 2:10 PM
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Vernon Wells is a terrible defensive outfielder? So I guess 3 straight Gold Gloves from 2004-2006 constitutes a bad defensive outfielder? Wow, some real ignorant people on these boards.
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- Brad Cunningham - Dec 16, 2009 at 2:10 PM
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Dude, Wells is a gold glove outfielder.
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- CousinEddie - Dec 16, 2009 at 3:04 PM
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Until they get on an MLB field, prospects are just that: prospects. Sure, Drabek may turn out to be the next Cliff Lee in 2011, but he may also be one of the 80 percent that never make it to the Bigs. Also, let’s not forget Lee was in the minors two years ago. Plain and simple, Lee didn’t want an extension; Doc did. That’s was the crux of the deal. Plus, the Phils needed to free up money.
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- neoncactus - Dec 16, 2009 at 3:11 PM
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Great trade for Seattle. It’s a good trade for Philly, getting Halladay, but I can’t say it makes them better. I can’t really see Halladay performing any better than Lee did last season, so there’s not much improvement there, with the possible exception of the first half of the season. They did get the extension done and it certainly keeps them as the team to beat in the NL.
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- Drew - Dec 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM
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Read the article again, bro! Here’s the steal:
–With Hernandez and Lee anchoring the rotation (and with money for yet another off-season acquisition to go along with Lee and Chone Figgins), the Mariners have a great chance to contend this season. Going for it is ALWAYS a better move than waiting around for prospects to develop (since they usually don’t develop).
–The prospects the M’s gave away weren’t that highly regarded other than perhaps Aumont who may or may not develop into major league material.
–Worst case scenario: if the M’s fail to contend with Lee, they trade him at the deadline for other prospects (perhaps even better ones than they just traded) OR they let him leave for free agency at the end of the year and receive two compensatory draft picks.
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- Andrew Kwon - Dec 16, 2009 at 10:16 PM
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I watch Wells everyday during the season. More and more balls drop that he would have caught years ago. He’s declined a lot. Balls he used to catch on many occasions were dropped. Not errors per say but running catches he used to make are now balls jarred lose in his glove. He is not getting to balls in as good of shape. His range is severely diminished. If you look at any fielding metrics he is bottom of the pile for center fielders and has been for the last couple of years. Say what you will about the numbers but anyone who’s watched him over the years will say he’s no where near the outfielder he once was.
As for the gold glove comment Jeter has won gold gloves, they mean nothing as far as defensive value.
Wallace will hopefully be good in the middle of the order, but Taylor could have looked better in right.
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- Stevealicious - Dec 16, 2009 at 11:09 PM
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As Blue Jays fans, we all have to come to grips with the fact that Alex Anthopoulos did the best he could with the hand he was dealt. He managed to spin a lame-duck superstar (in the sense that he wanted out) into a three #1 picks.
The gamble on flipping Taylor for Wallace is one we should be excited about. Wallace is a masher, and we need to put a priority on offense right now. Taylor has tonnes of athleticism and upside, but we need what Wallace offers right now.
Take a look at Drabek’s numbers this year. What team wouldn’t want this guy in their system? He’s going to win games for the Jays – that’s the bottom line.
As far as D’Arnaud goes, those who have seen him play seem to think he’s got some potential as a full-timer in a year or two.
The Yankees would like you to believe that we’d be better off accepting a package of overhyped prospects. I’d rather take a collection of guys who the team (scouting staff, senior management, and advisors) have targeted for the last few years.
Congrats to Alex Anthopoulos for pulling the trigger on this one.
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- Greg - Dec 17, 2009 at 12:22 AM
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Wait, are there really that many people out there that think that Vernon Wells is still a good defender in CF? Come on out to the Rogers Centre and cheer him on then guys, because I don’t think that any of the people there that have to watch him will agree… so your optimism will be appreciated, misguided or not.
He wasn’t a “great” defender even when he was winning Gold Gloves, but he’s not even acceptable out there anymore. Look at the numbers, talk to the people that watch him, talk to Blue Jay fans… I’d be surprised if there’s much support for him on any of those fronts.
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- James - Dec 17, 2009 at 12:25 AM
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Drew, you hit it on the head. It’s ALWAYS better to go for it, as opposed to sitting around waiting for talent to develop. Been waiting for the M’s to make a real freaking move.
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- mark - Dec 17, 2009 at 12:32 AM
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Those who don’t get it don’t get it.
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- Andre - Dec 17, 2009 at 1:42 AM
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Hilarious….first of all, those of you saying the M’s didn’t get a steal don’t know our farm system at all. None of these guys were considered our top trade chips. And none of them were going to make the major league club, because they are blocked. Aumont is a backend reliever which we have at least 4 of right now in front of him…Aardsma, Lowe, Kelley and Josh Fields, the same can be said about Ramirez….then you have Gillies, who is a good CF prospect, but we have a damn good CF in Gutierrez who will be our CF for the foreseeable future. So considering we traded 3 guys who don’t really have value to us in the the future for a AL CY Young award winner even just for 1 year is an absolute steal. Even when we lose him, hopefully we’ll have made the playoffs and we’ll get 2 late 1st round picks which will definitely be more valuable than who we gave up, mostly because they will be drafted for future need…which the guys we gave up were not….now do you think it was a Steal? Yup I do too! Go M’s!
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- M'sfanfromTacoma - Dec 17, 2009 at 3:16 AM
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Andre know’s his s**t, and knows it well.
Jack Z did this to show Felix that the new regime was committed to winning and hopefully Lee will appreciate that as well and maybe we can lock him up for a few years. Go M’s!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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- IslandDan M's Fan - Dec 17, 2009 at 9:41 AM
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While I agree it was a great trade for the M’s pitching, my question is while Felix and Cliff are shutting down oposing teams; who is scoring the runs?
I’m sick of seeing us lose games 1 or 2 to nothing, which has occured so many times since our 116 season.
Took make the Cliff trade really look good they’ve got to use the extra cash to pickup a couple quality bats.
Go M’s!
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- david - Dec 17, 2009 at 10:18 AM
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when i compare the package toronto got, vs the package phi got for lee. Toronto got the better prospects. I would even go as far as saying that the package toronto got for Halladay is equal if not greater than the package Cleveland got for lee.
As for the the taylor for wallace trade, this was a pure baseball trade. one team needed a basher another team an OF.
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- cincy-fan - Dec 17, 2009 at 1:35 PM
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I don’t understand why people keep saying Halladay’s $60 million extension is below market value. $20M a year is below market value, even for an ace pitcher?
I bet Doc is looking forward to the weaker lineups and fanning the opposing pitcher 3 times a game, though. NL strikeout rates are bit of a mirage, but it all counts.
