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So, how will Bay do in Citi Field?

Dec 30, 2009, 11:30 AM EDT

It’s behind the Insider wall, but Buster Olney passes along some analysis from the ESPN stats department — the members of whom I picture working in some shabby off-site building like the Major Crimes detail on “The Wire” — who project Jason Bay to hit 30 homers overall next year, 10 at home, 20 on the road. I’m neither capable nor inclined to seriously question or back up that analysis, but I could see it. He hit 15 at home last year and 21 on the road. I’m guessing the Monster turned some would-be homers into doubles, but that Citi Field will turn them into outs.

Happy with that Mets fans?

If not, at least be happy with something else Buster writes up: the history of Mets big-money free agent signings that included Bobby Bonilla, Cliff Floyd, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez and a shoutout to Vince Coleman.  Outside of Carlos Beltran there’s a lot of ugliness in the Mets’ free agent history, so things could definitely be worse.

  1. APBA Guy - Dec 30, 2009 at 11:43 AM

    The ESPN stats analysis appears to be on solid ground with respect to the Bay projection. It’s been some time since my own stat heavy days, but given all the usual caveats surrounding these things (injuries, weather, etc) 30 is a good projection.
    A bigger point is this whole insider wall thing. Insider is now up to $40/year. I know some guys will spend that on porn in a month, but it’s an outrageous amount given the quality of competing free web sites, including this one.
    For $ 40 bucks a year all that you get that’s unique and worthwhile is Law and Neyer. Everything else you can find for free elsewhere, and hopefully you will no longer have to hide your shame and embarrassment when the postman hands you The Magazine.

  2. Ryan - Dec 30, 2009 at 11:48 AM

    … and all the best stuff eventually makes it’s way here anyways. That paywall is just such a joke to me, why on earth would someone pay for it? yay CTB.

  3. METDISAPPOINTED - Dec 30, 2009 at 11:53 AM

    I have been a Mets fan for years and I must be truly missing the point here, we had a chance to improve pitching and infield positions and this is the best Minaya could do? I will have to look at my finanaces long and hard before going to the ballpark this year, sorry guys!

  4. Simon DelMonte - Dec 30, 2009 at 12:30 PM

    Given how badly the Mets did with home runs, even 30 won’t be a bad number. Especially since only 30 players hit 30 or more homers last season. Never mind the the team leader was Daniel Murphy, with 12.
    The bigger question continues to be whether Wright can find his stroke again. I would like to think that a healthy lineup with Beltran and Bay will afford Wright some protection, but there is no way to predict, is there?
    I also don’t really put much credence in Citi Field being a problem. Everyone has to play there, and all those homers the opposing teams hit tell me that it was the pitching, not the park. A well run team can adjust. Just look at how the home run rate for visitors to Yankee Stadium II went down as CC and Company got the hang of it. (Yes, there is the huge issue of pitching, but that is another topic, for now.)
    I think that Cliff Floyd and Tom Glavine were good pick-ups for the Mets; and that Pedro was a necessary move to bring credibility to a team that had very little, even if he broke down in the end. Obviously, I and no other Mets fan will ever defend the Bonilla signing.

  5. JordanFan - Dec 30, 2009 at 12:46 PM

    “Happy with that Mets fans?”
    Eat me, douchebag.

  6. mtjofmcap - Dec 30, 2009 at 1:00 PM

    @ Jordan Fan:
    No, I’m not happy with it — as a Met fan. Calling Craig names only takes time away from pining for a new set of owners for our beloved Mets.

    As a breed Mets’ fans are pessimistic. I place myself on the top of that list. But, as my father said yesterday: “If Bay were that good, the Sox or the Yankees would have gotten him by now.”
    If I were a betting man, injuries, weather and karma will take their respective tolls on the new acquisition. I’ll be thrilled when Bay hits his first home run at Citi Field in mid-May.

  7. N - Dec 30, 2009 at 1:38 PM

    $40/year is a lot, but you can get a lot better deal if you look around. Around Black Friday, Amazon was offering a year of the magazine for $5, which seemed like a good deal; I’d finally be able to read Peter Gammons’ entire articles!
    (But Buster’s been OK.)

  8. Dirck - Dec 30, 2009 at 2:01 PM

    I have been a Met fan since the beginning . I went to see them play in the Polo Grounds ( what a bizarre park that was ! )The Mets have a pretty awful track record in trading for or signing hitters in their 30’s . The Mets seem to get them immediately after the last good year of their career .Jim Fregosi, Roberto Alomar,Bobby Bonilla, Moe Vaughn ,George Foster,come immediately to mind . Let’s hope that Bay is an exception , especially since the Mets had Bay when he was still in the minors and gave him away for nothing .

  9. TommyB - Dec 30, 2009 at 7:34 PM

    Whoa, gave Bay away for nothing Dirck? We got Jason Middlebrook and Steve Reed for him 😉

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