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2010 projected leaders: Strikeouts

Feb 8, 2010, 5:49 PM EDT

Over the next several days, I’ll be dipping into my 2010 projections and presenting some leaderboards.
1. Tim Lincecum – 246
2. Zack Greinke – 211
2. Justin Verlander – 211
4. Dan Haren – 203
5. Javier Vazquez – 200
6. Tommy Hanson – 198
7. Chad Billingsley – 197
8. Roy Halladay – 195
9. Clayton Kershaw – 194
10. Felix Hernandez – 193
11. Adam Wainwright – 189
12. Jon Lester – 187
13. CC Sabathia – 186
14. A.J. Burnett – 183
15. Josh Beckett – 180
15. Ricky Nolasco – 180
Lincecum is clearly the best bet here, even if Verlander did beat him out 269 to 261 for the major league lead last season. On a K/9 IP basis, I’m dropping Verlander from 10.1 last year to 9.2, which is still far better than his career mark of 8.0.
Vazquez was projected with the second-highest total here as a Brave. However, the league switch knocked him down a bit.
Some pitchers with particularly high strikeout rates not to make the list because of their inning totals include: Rich Harden (149 in 142 2/3 IP), Max Scherzer (170 in 177 1/3 IP), Gio Gonzalez (167 in 171 2/3 IP) and Francisco Liriano (136 in 143 IP).

  1. palehose67 - Feb 8, 2010 at 5:09 PM

    No Peavy? I assume that you’re expecting injury issues in 2010?

  2. MC - Feb 8, 2010 at 5:13 PM

    Santana, no mention?

  3. Dan W - Feb 8, 2010 at 5:32 PM

    I take umbrage with Jon Lester only being projected at 187, short of injury, I do not see how he could reasonably projected under 200Ks.
    And yes, I used the word umbrage in a blog comment section.

  4. Carl Karcher - Feb 8, 2010 at 5:34 PM

    How could you not include Gallardo and U. Jimenez? Both bring serious heat. I don’t see Hanson completing enough innings to net that many K’s and Halladay’s stuff is no longer overpowering enough to ring up 190+, especially against the big boppers in the NL.

  5. Scott - Feb 8, 2010 at 5:56 PM

    I can see Roy Halladay getting over 200 K’s

  6. Chet - Feb 8, 2010 at 9:28 PM

    Lincecum is 5’11” 175 lbs. The lightning is fading from his arm. I think you see a noticeable difference this year. He’s still good but barely makes 200 k’s this year. Look for Lester to stand out.

  7. Zonebrick - Feb 9, 2010 at 8:23 AM

    I’m with the rest regarding Jon Lester who should be well over 200, and also think Francisco Liriano is going to bounce back bigtime.

  8. Church of the Perpetually Outraged - Feb 9, 2010 at 8:52 AM

    Lincecum is 5’11” 175 lbs. The lightning is fading from his arm. I think you see a noticeable difference this year. He’s still good but barely makes 200 k’s this year. Look for Lester to stand out.

    How is the “lightning fading from his arm”? His B/9, H/9, FIP and xFIP were all lower in ’09 than ’08. He also increased his GB%. All these measures are good indicators that he’s getting better, not worse.
    However, I agree that lester is probably a good bet to hit 200Ks. Doubt he’ll have another 10+K/9, but I could see him in the high 8’s this year.

  9. D-Luxxx - Feb 9, 2010 at 10:03 AM

    Yeah, no crap. Where is Santana?

  10. Lee - Feb 9, 2010 at 11:08 AM

    I assume Santana is absent only because there is some question of how quickly he will recover from his (minor) surgery. Otherwise, that seems like a huge omission.

  11. Matthew Pouliot - Feb 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM

    Santana has only fanned 7.9 batters per nine innings in his two years with the Mets. I have him at 162 Ks in 190 1/3 IP, which is 7.7 K/9 IP.
    Ubaldo Jimenez was next on the list.
    I’ll probably repost this list as K/9 IP soon, so the innings projection doesn’t have such a huge influence. That’d replace guys like Wainwright, Halladay and Sabathia with some younger arms.

  12. D-Luxxx - Feb 9, 2010 at 4:22 PM

    I guess I wasn’t even looking at stats. Maybe my question should be what happened to Santana? You gotta wonder if it’s worth all that money to play for a non-contender… yeah, it probably is. I bet he misses the Twins, though.

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