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2010 projected leaders: Runs scored & RBI

Feb 10, 2010, 6:14 PM EDT

Over the next several days, I’ll be dipping into my 2010 projections and presenting some leaderboards.
Runs
1. Ryan Braun – 113
1. Albert Pujols – 113
1. Alex Rodriguez – 113
4. Dustin Pedroia – 112
5. Jose Reyes – 110
5. Jimmy Rollins – 110
7. Mark Teixeira – 109
8. Derek Jeter – 108
8. Hanley Ramirez – 108
10. Chase Utley – 107
11. Jacoby Ellsbury – 106
11. Grady Sizemore – 106
13. Carl Crawford – 103
13. Brian Roberts – 103
– On a per at-bat basis, Joe Mauer would be in the top five. I have him scoring 100 runs in 526 at-bats.
– With two exceptions, everyone in my top 28 for runs scored is projected to finish with at least a .360 OBP. Ellsbury comes in just south of that at .356. Rollins, on the other hand, isn’t even close. I have him at .327. Last year, he scored 100 runs despite getting on base at a .296 clip.
RBI
1. Ryan Howard – 133
2. Mark Teixeira – 125
3. Prince Fielder – 124
4. Albert Pujols – 122
5. Evan Longoria – 121
6. Alex Rodriguez – 119
7. Matt Holliday – 117
8. Miguel Cabrera – 116
9. Justin Morneau – 114
10. Mark Reynolds – 111
11. Ryan Braun – 110
12. Jason Bay – 109
12. Carlos Lee – 109
14. Adam Lind – 108
14. Nick Markakis – 108
– If a .360 OBP is the cutoff for the first list, a .500 slugging percentage fills the role here. The lowest mark in the top 15 is Markakis’ .501, though Lee (.510), Reynolds (.512) and Morneau (.514) don’t come in a whole lot higher. Everyone in the top 28, though, is projected with at least a .500 SLG. Victor Martinez is the highest player in the rankings to fail to reach the mark. Since he’ll be batting behind Ellsbury and Pedroia, I have him driving in 99 runs with a .468 SLG.

  1. BC - Feb 10, 2010 at 9:14 PM

    Initial thoughts….
    Runs Scored:
    Hanley Ramirez OVER
    Carl Crawford OVER
    Jacoby Ellsbury OVER
    Chase Utley UNDER
    Ryan Braun UNDER
    Would go under on Reyes but if healthy, he’ll hit the mark
    RBI:
    Albert Pujols OVER
    Justin Morneau OVER
    Jason Bay UNDER
    David Wright (not on list) OVER 108
    Mark Reynolds UNDER
    Ryan Braun UNDER
    Evan Longoria OVER

  2. Scott - Feb 10, 2010 at 10:25 PM

    Also curious about David Wright. You down on him for the year?

  3. Matthew Pouliot - Feb 11, 2010 at 12:17 PM

    I was guessing Wright would start off batting fifth, which took a toll on his run and RBI numbers. I should reevaluate that now that Beltran seems likely to begin the year on the DL.
    I still had Wright at 28 homers, 102 runs scored, 105 RBI. I’m expecting a big rebound (.310/.398/.528), just perhaps not with great run and RBI numbers.

  4. Mazie - Feb 11, 2010 at 12:54 PM

    The Rangers are loaded and you don’t even give them a blink. Give me a break.

  5. Matthew Pouliot - Feb 11, 2010 at 1:03 PM

    The Rangers had one player last year finish with either 90 runs or 90 RBI. That was Kinsler, who scored 101 runs. Now he’s being dropped to the middle of the order, so he’s not going to do that again.
    If either Hamilton or Vlad play in 155 games, then there’s a good chance they’ll drive in 105-115 runs. I can’t project either to play that much, though.

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