Mar 24, 2010, 9:00 AM EST
Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2010 season. The Yankees are the defending champs, so they have the honor.
The big question: Will age catch up to the Yankees?
People have been asking this for years, but for 2010 at least I’m going to say no. Sure, it’s possible that Derek Jeter is going to suddenly remember that he’s a 36 year-old shortstop, Jorge Posada will act like we expect 38 year-old catchers to act and opposing batters may actually be able to hit the one pitch that Mariano Rivera throws, but we’ve been waiting for that for years and it it still hasn’t happened. All three of those guys can be expected to decline a bit from unexpectedly good 2009 seasons, but it seems like the core of that team is entitled to the benefit of the doubt against cratering until they actually, you know, crater.
And you know what? Age is something of a red herring with this team. Mark Teixeira isn’t going to turn 30 until after the season starts. Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain aren’t old. I worry about Nick Johnson’s health, but Jesus Montero could probably be plugged in at DH if things got dicey, and of course the Yankees are always able to make a deal for a hitter another team doesn’t feel like paying come July. People have questioned the Yankees depth, but on a team full of All-Stars the loss of any one player for a good chunk of time is less devastating than it might be elsewhere. No team could survive a 2009 Mets-style plague of injuries, but I think the 2010 Yankees are no more susceptible to age and injury than any other 100-win juggernaut.
So what else is going on?
- A lot of ink has been spilled over the fifth starter’s race, but given how strong the 1-4 guys are (Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Vazquez) Yankees fans should be embarrassed that they’ve worried about it at all. Your fifth starter is going to be better than many team’s third starters and would be bona fide aces in a couple of cities. Zip it with the Phil and Joba anxiety, OK?
- People have voiced concern about the outfield, but I think that the combination of Granderson, Brett
Gardner and Randy Winn will be better than last year’s combination of
Johnny Damon, Gardner and Melky Cabrera. Nick Swisher is the constant in right and he could fall back a bit, but this is not a team whose fortunes will rise and fall on the strength of Nick Swisher’s OPS;
- The bullpen looks amazingly strong right now. Rivera anchors of course, the loser of the Chamberlain-Hughes battle sets up, and a crowd of solid guys in Chan Ho Park, Dave Robertson, Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte and Alfredo Aceves round things out. Yankees opponents may find games to be very, very short this year;
- The Yankees are always subject to some in-season drama, but the biggest thing on the horizon at the moment is Joe Girardi’s lame duck status. But really, whether Girardi is given a new contract will be determined by whether the Yankees win or lose, not the other way around. Even with the A-Rod-Dr. Galea stuff, it’s hard to remember a less strife-filled beginning of the season for the Yankees.
So how are they gonna do?
Predictions are for suckers, so the Springtime Storylines feature is going to tread lightly in that department, but right now it’s hard to say that the Yankees aren’t strong favorites to repeat. Yes, injuries and age could be a factor, but there are too many guys on the roster who could, if they were the best player on their team, lead that team to a championship. If things are going to go sideways for the Yankees, it’s going to take the simultaneous burnout or breakdown of multiple players for it to happen, and no one has ever gotten rich betting on coincidences like that to occur.
Prediction: First place in the AL East and a better shot at a champagne shower come November than anyone else.
- My Imaginary Hall of Fame Ballot 69
- Phil Hughes signs a three-year extension with the Twins 23
- The Padres have talked to the Phillies about Cole Hamels 23
- Why is John Smoltz a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame? 63
- Phillies GM told Ryan Howard they’d be better off “not with him but without him” 85
- Trea Turner’s agent is unhappy his client is in limbo after trade to Nationals 48
- Nexen Heroes accept Jung-Ho Kang posting fee from unidentified MLB team 37
- Giants acquire Casey McGehee from the Marlins 16
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. (145)
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (144)
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade (97)
- St. Petersburg City Council votes down deal to allow Rays to look for new stadium site (90)
- Phillies GM told Ryan Howard they’d be better off “not with him but without him” (85)