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Angels flawed, but still could take AL West

Apr 6, 2010, 7:00 PM EDT

If nothing else, the AL West should be very interesting to follow. There are reasons to be optimistic about each squad, but I couldn’t help but grow more pessimistic with regards to each team as the spring went on. The Rangers may well have the most talent in the division, yet theirs is a squad with the potential to be decimated by injuries and the funds might not be there to bring in replacements. The A’s know that feeling well, so they made increasing their depth a priority over the winter. Unfortunately, while their fallbacks are better, they currently have Ryan Sweeney, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Kurt Suzuki comprising the heart of their lineup.
The Mariners, for all of their positive moves, still have obvious holes in their rotation and lineup, though if they get a working Erik Bedard back in June and a legitimate DH in July, there’s the chance they could run away with the division. They’re the one team capable of doing so, in my opinion.
The Angels, though, are still the favorites for the moment, even with John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins all having departed. The lineup, while lacking a superstar, is pretty strong throughout and the team has five solid pitchers to fill its rotation. Also, let’s face it… the Angels are pretty much always better than expected. Credit Mike Scioscia and/or the team’s ability to do the “little” things. The Angels typically wins several more games a year than the computers say they should, and it’s not all because of summer acquisitions like Mark Teixeira and Scott Kazmir.
In 2010, the Angels look worse on paper than they have in several years, perhaps since before their World Series victory in 2002. It’s the rotation that scares me more than anything. While the Angels have their five proven starters, no one in the group is likely to dominate.
As part of my 2010 projections, I had 57 AL pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, including all five Angels starters. Here’s how their ERAs ranked in that group:
Jered Weaver – 14th (3.96)
Joe Saunders – 22nd (4.07)
Scott Kazmir – 32nd (4.20)
Joel Pineiro – 35th (4.25)
Ervin Santana – 53rd (4.65)
It’s a group with some upside, particularly when it comes to Kazmir and Santana. But I’m not overly optimistic in regards to any of them. Plus, there’s no 220-inning workhorse here. Kazmir is a weak bet to make 30 starts, and I also wouldn’t put any money down on Santana doing so. The Pineiro signing was extremely important for the Angels, but I think they’ll come to regret not bringing in a Chad Gaudin-type to function as a swingman. Matt Palmer did the job better than anyone could have imagined last year, but the league clearly caught up to him and he was dreadful this spring. The Angels have no quality alternatives unless prospect Trevor Reckling develops quickly.
Of course, the lack of an extra starter is something that can and probably will be addressed in July. But I worry that Palmer may cost them several games before then.
The Angels will score runs, though not as many as they could if they’d simply commit to Mike Napoli over Jeff Mathis. I think the bullpen will be adequate, in part because I expect Kevin Jepsen to turn into a force in a setup role. The defense is strong, particularly aside from the outfield corners. That’s a big reason why the projections for Weaver and, especially, Saunders are as kind as they are.
My guess is that enough will go right for 86-88 wins and another trip to the postseason. Still, this is a team that could finish under .500 if only a few things go wrong.

  1. Jack Francis - Apr 6, 2010 at 8:16 PM

    For someone who follows pretty much *every* team, I’m impressed with how spot on you are with this assessment of a *particular* club. As an ardent Angels follower, I share your suspicions about the AL West, but as a result of much more focused effort!
    http://bumpbailey.com/?p=20

  2. Ed Kinney - Apr 6, 2010 at 10:08 PM

    I believe that if the Angels can generate a little more swat than last year they will be tough in September.

  3. Eric - Apr 7, 2010 at 11:12 AM

    Everyone forgets how much depth the Angels have. Some teams get a injury or two they are done. I love how they keep bringing up Vlad and Lackey and Figgins. Sorry but they all are on the decline!Lackey and Vlad were hurt for half the season! Angels are the best run orgnization and thats why they we will win the West again!

  4. FEDUP - Apr 7, 2010 at 1:58 PM

    Don’t forget the best reason to forget the angels doing anything.
    2009 playoffs – The short stop and third baseman were playing – I got it, I got it …
    and the ball falls at their feet.
    Thank you from your friends, The New York Yankees

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