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I'm not the only guy down on the Phillies

Apr 6, 2010, 3:17 PM EDT

The good Mr. Neyer posted his projected standings at ESPN yesterday.  He has the Yankees, Twins, and Rangers winning their divisions and the Red Sox taking the wild card in the AL and the Phillies, Cardinals and Rockies taking the divisions and the Braves taking the wild card in the senior circuit.

Rob’s a lot smarter than I am when it comes to this kind of stuff so I was happy to see that he has the Phillies and Braves at 89 and 88 wins, respectively. OK, maybe picking Philly to win the division means that Rob isn’t “down” on them, but 89 and 88 wins is a tossup, and I thus feel less insecure about my Braves pick in the East. I mean, I think the Braves will win it, but I think it will be a dead heat all year.

He also has the Rockies winning the west like I do, which seems to be the minority position.  He and I flip the Rays and Red Sox, but I called that pretty closely too, as does Rob.

Biggest variance: he’s got the Angels winning 80 games and coming in third in the AL West. I think that’s too low. Sadly, Rob writes a humble and self-aware disclaimer about how the Angles always prove him wrong, thereby taking all the fun out of mocking him in October when they win yet another division title.

Damn you, Rob and your Midwestern humility.

  1. Old Gator - Apr 6, 2010 at 3:37 PM

    Craig, wouldn’t you like to reconsider – I mean, really like to reconsider – the title of this particular blog? I tell you one thing: I’m the Heyward Child, I am definitely checking the shower before I step into it after that one.

  2. Megary - Apr 6, 2010 at 3:42 PM

    Sensationalism! Yellow journalism!
    Is that born out of necessity, or do they teach that in J-School?
    But seriously, predictions are like you know what…everyone has one and they all have pollups, some more than others.

  3. Route36West - Apr 6, 2010 at 3:47 PM

    Craig I know you have the Braves winning the division which is fine everyone is allowed to be optimistic about there team.
    We all know beating a team for a division title is alot different then beating a team heads up in the playoffs.
    What I wanna know is if your predictions come true and then the Braves and Phillies end up meeting each other in the NLCS who do you think will win it ?
    When 2 teams are competing for a division title the games they play against each other are only a small sample of your over all season. So 1 of the teams could totally dominate the other one heads up and still end up losing the division.
    So it doesnt matter which one you pick to be the wildcard and which one you pick to win the division. What really matters is which team you think will come out on top when they cant rely on beating other teams and they only got each other left to play.

  4. Luis - Apr 6, 2010 at 3:58 PM

    Having enjoyed your Springtime Storylines pieces, I was curious to know if you’ve seen some of Baseball Prospectus’ division projections…in particular regarding the Angels, who I believe BP picked to finish last in the division. I tend to agree this seems way too pessimistic, and I would have them winning the West again myself, though not nearly as handily as last year.
    .
    Also, I don’t think you and Neyer are in the minority at all on the Rockies. I’m pretty sure BP picked them to win their division, and I feel like every analyst I’ve seen on TV has picked them as well. Not just for the division either; they’re a trendy WS pick, and I’ve even seen people pick them to win it. Seeing/reading things like “Colorado has the best bench in baseball” and “Seth Smith is the best 4th OF in baseball” has become pretty commonplace at this point.
    .
    Also on the ridiculously pessimistic side, BP has the Yankees in 3rd place. Seriously. I hate that squad with every fiber of my being, but give me a break…how can you have them as anything other than favorites to repeat?
    .
    Anyway, I know pretty much nothing about predictions and projections and how BP does their generally wonderful work…so I was curious to see what you might think of this stuff.

  5. phillymike - Apr 6, 2010 at 4:05 PM

    NL EAST
    1. Phillies – 89
    2. Braves – 88
    3. Mets – 80
    4. Marlins – 79
    5. Nationals – 73
    Someone actually expects the Nats to win 73 games? Flip the Marlins and the Braves in those standings, sorry Cox but retirement starts October 3rd. And add 10 wins to the Phils.

  6. ecp - Apr 6, 2010 at 4:16 PM

    I don’t know; lately it seems that Neyer is getting harder to figure all the time. For example, he picked CC Sabathia for the AL Cy Young. His reasoning? Because he “figures he’ll get a lot of wins.” And here I thought we made strides last year towards putting wins to bed as a judgment of starting pitchers. Sigh. Disappointing from Neyer.

  7. Xao - Apr 6, 2010 at 4:55 PM

    I didn’t read that particular Neyer column, ecp, but was he predicting who would win the Cy or who would have the most Cy-worthy year? I don’t think the Cy voters have collectively renounced wins as a measure of effectiveness just yet…

  8. Joey B - Apr 6, 2010 at 4:56 PM

    Philly at 89 is not much lower than the 93 they won last year.
    I still don’t see the figuring on LAA. They won 97, though Pythagorus has them lower. They should have Kendricks for the full year to make up some of the loss of Figgins. They have Kaz and Pineiro to make up for the loss of Lackey. They should be in the low-mid 90s.

  9. carlos - Apr 6, 2010 at 5:08 PM

    Phillies win 99, and the Bravos take 79? They musta had opening day sale on blunts in philly, cause you smokin something.

  10. s/k - Apr 6, 2010 at 8:22 PM

    the phillies are phenominal

  11. BigTop - Apr 6, 2010 at 8:30 PM

    why do we continue to delve into this prediction business/bull? it’s so stupid. baseball season’s underway people, stop bickering about who’s going to win how many and just watch some damn baseball.

  12. ecp - Apr 7, 2010 at 11:43 AM

    It’s a “prediction” column, which would not seem to represent who has the most Cy-worthy year:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview10/news/story?page=10expertpicksplayers
    Neyer’s reference to Sabathia’s win total this year was, unfortunately, made in a live interview. I don’t believe that the voters have entirely denounced wins either, but I also don’t think that Sabathia is going to put up peripherals as good as some others and that, again, wins won’t do it. But hey, that’s just me.

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