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Yankees at 3-to-1 lead World Series odds

Apr 6, 2010, 1:50 PM EDT

One of the few things I like more than gambling is baseball, so the “futures” odds on teams winning the World Series are always interesting. Here’s what Bodog is offering right now (for entertainment purposes only, of course):

New York Yankees         3-1        Philadelphia Phillies    6-1
Boston Red Sox           6-1        St. Louis Cardinals     12-1
Seattle Mariners        16-1        Los Angeles Dodgers     16-1
Tampa Bay Rays          18-1        Chicago Cubs            18-1
Minnesota Twins         18-1        Atlanta Braves          20-1
Los Angeles Angels      18-1        Colorado Rockies        20-1
Chicago White Sox       18-1        San Francisco Giants    22-1
Texas Rangers           25-1        New York Mets           28-1
Detroit Tigers          30-1        Arizona Diamondbacks    35-1
Oakland Athletics       60-1        Florida Marlins         38-1
Cleveland Indians       75-1        Milwaukee Brewers       45-1
Baltimore Orioles      100-1        Cincinnati Reds         50-1
Kansas City Royals     100-1        Houston Astros          75-1
Toronto Blue Jays      150-1        San Diego Padres       100-1
Pittsburgh Pirates     150-1
Washington Nationals   150-1

Perhaps the media hype surrounding Seattle’s new management really has gotten out of control, because there’s no way the Mariners should have the fifth-highest odds in all of baseball to win the World Series at 16-to-1. General manager Jack Zduriencik and company have made tremendous strides and it wouldn’t surprise me if they made the playoffs, but 16-to-1 seems crazy
I actually picked the Rangers to narrowly beat the Mariners (plus the Angels and A’s) in the AL West, so I like them at 25-to-1 quite a bit more. The Tigers at 30-to-1 also seems like a decent bet, if only because their offseason losses have generally been overstated and winning the AL Central almost never requires more than 90 victories.
Over in the NL, the Cardinals at 12-to-1 seems decent as far as heavy favorites go. I think they’re neck and neck with the Phillies as the best team in the league and the NL Central may not offer much of a challenge. With that said, the Brewers are certainly a solid enough team that 45-to-1 seems pretty good as a flier. I’d take Milwaukee over at least 3-4 teams with lower odds.
Incidentally, the one thing I’m sure of is that you’ll get an equal return on your investment and probably more enjoyment literally flushing money down the toilet or lighting money on fire than you will betting it on the Pirates, Nationals, or Blue Jays at 150-to-1. Bodog could offer 150-to-1 odds on the Pirates winning the World Series this decade and I’d have to really think about it.

  1. Charles Gates - Apr 6, 2010 at 2:05 PM

    Mr. Bodog must not be a Braves fan, like Craig 😛

  2. BC - Apr 6, 2010 at 2:06 PM

    Seattle, Giants and Mets odds are too low… would put Seattle and Giants at 20-1 to 25-1, Mets at 35-1. Cardinals, Rockies and Phillies should all be about 8-1 to 10-1. And I can’t see the Tigers being 30-1, that’s a value play.

  3. SeattleSlew - Apr 7, 2010 at 1:28 AM

    Aaron, I love a lot of your great work during the season and do agree that the Mariners at 16 to 1 are probably ambitiously priced. Since you seem to understand gambling, you also know that most sports odds lines are to some degree a function of actual wagering, and not just “morning line” odds thrown out by someone as a guess. Thus, it might appear that Mariner Moose has gone to England to place a large bet to supplement his meager salary? In any event there are two aspects which would tend to make the Mariners shorter than their expected win totals might suggest:
    a.) They are in the only 4 team division in baseball. Thus, if all teams were created equal and of equal odds, the 4 teams in the AL West would have a higher overall probability of being in the post-season than all other 26 teams.
    b.) IF the Mariners do get to the post-season as division winners or wild card winners, they THEN will be much more formidable competitors with a higher chance of winning the World Series if, in fact, they have Cliff Lee, Felix and Erik Bedard as their top 3 starters, with RRS as a fourth pitcher, along with a “5 bullet” bullpen (probably supported by a good lefty.)
    I am not putting my money at 16-1…BUT if they get into the post-season AND Bedard, Lee and Felix are all healthy, I might risk some of my stash if they aren’t getting a lot of love in the odds pools at that time.

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