Apr 24, 2010, 2:35 PM EDT
UPDATE: Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley comes to a similar conclusion, if you are looking for a more in-depth analysis.
1:45 PM: Facts are facts. Cole Hamels was knocked around pretty good by the Diamondbacks on Friday night, giving up a career-high four home runs, including three in the fourth inning. Hamels has allowed seven home runs over his first 24 2/3 innings this season, and according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, he has served up 14 home runs over his last 40 2/3 innings if we include the 2009 postseason.
Pretty ugly numbers, but certainly nothing to panic about quite yet. Despite a 5.11 ERA, Hamels still has a very healthy 26/6 K/BB ratio over his first four starts and isn’t allowing any more flyballs than he usually does (37 percent flyball rate as opposed to 39.4 percent for his career). What has changed is his HR/FB rate, which currently sits at 25.9 percent. That simply won’t continue. xFIP (a statistic that attempts to normalize a pitcher’s home run rate) currently has Hamels at a much more palatable 3.26.
I realize these are just statistics and Hamels still has to go out there and actually execute a complete gameplan — oddly, he only threw 16 changeups last night, largely abandoning his best pitch — but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s just riding out a period of very bad luck. We’ll see.
- Rangers activate Josh Hamilton from disabled list, send prospect Joey Gallo to Triple-A 6
- Huston Street says he’d retire if he was used like a 1970s-style fireman 42
- CC Sabathia looks like a reliever 24
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 55
- AL All-Star voting update: now “only” five Royals in the starting lineup 59
- Andy MacPhail introduced by the Phillies. And the first topic of conversation is sabermetrics 20
- What a world: Orioles are in first place and Ubaldo Jimenez has been their ace 16
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results 99
- With the same-sex marriage decision, the San Francisco Giants get another big win (275)
- Joe Maddon is the latest manager to rip instant replay. He’s got a point. (109)
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights (79)
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (75)