Apr 26, 2010, 5:20 PM EST
I’ve made some comments this afternoon about Ryan Howard likely declining. I’m not a stats guy, though, so I’m just making some guesses, albeit guesses informed by history. Bill Baer at the Phillies’ blog Crashburn Alley is a stats guy, however, and in the course of assessing the wisdom of the Howard contract extension, he brings some statistical noise that should be unsettling to Phillies fans:
Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has
declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in
2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an
infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in
more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against
them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but
so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights,
Howard’s production against the fastball has dropped every year since
2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone
every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate
(swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006.
This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it
will quickly become tumultuous.
You don’t have to be a hardcore sabermetrician to grok the point: He’s less patient at the plate than he used to be, fewer batted balls are being turned into hits, which could be because of the shift opposing teams employ, but could also mean that he’s not hitting the ball quite as hard as he used to. His ability to hit lefties has not improved and may, in fact, be declining, if that was even possible. He’s striking out less, but there’s a corresponding drop in his power. He is, however, swinging and missing more often than he used to, even though he’s striking out at slightly lower rates.
None of this is to say Howard is a bad player. But it certainly paints a picture of a player who (a) you shouldn’t expect to improve over the next six years, and who will almost certainly decline; and (b) should not be paid upwards of $25 million a year across so many years.
- Reds sign four-year contract extension with Devin Mesoraco 10
- The Yankees are going to try to get out of paying A-Rod his contract incentives 69
- How Commissioner Rob Manfred Can Make Baseball More Appealing 60
- Blue Jays cut off talks for Orioles executive Dan Duquette 47
- Rob Manfred, new Major League Baseball commissioner, suggests ban on defensive shifts 118
- Yankees reject A-Rod’s apology attempt 47
- Joe Posnanski: Remembering ‘Mr. Cub,’ Ernie Banks 17
- What they’re saying about the passing of Cubs legend Ernie Banks 8
- Bud Selig: The Greatest Commissioner in the History of Baseball (144)
- Max Scherzer’s seven-year deal with Nationals worth $210 million (119)
- Rob Manfred, new Major League Baseball commissioner, suggests ban on defensive shifts (118)
- Comments of the Day: some of you guys aren’t big Bud Selig fans (77)
- The 2015 Braves have “gravitas” and “veteran leadership” and will have dirty uniforms. Just kill me now. (76)