Jun 2, 2010, 7:51 PM EST
The great folks at Baseball Prospectus are once again running playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams, using a formula that plays out the rest of the 2010 season 1,000,000 times. With pretty much every division up for grabs through June 2, it’s at least a fun thing to look at.
Not to spoil the entire read, but here are a few of the more interesting nuggets:
- The Reds, who currently own a one-game lead in the National League Central, have only a 30.5% chance of winning the division.
- The Cardinals, who trail the Reds, have a 63.5% shot at taking the NL Central crown.
- There’s a similar scenario playing out in the American League East, where the Rays lead the Yankees by 2.5 games, but only have a 30.3% chance of winning baseball’s toughest division.
- The Twins, with a 69.1% chance of winning the American League Central, have the highest probability of making the playoffs out of every team in the game.
- Meanwhile the Orioles have the lowest probability of winning a division crown, with a 0.00038% chance of surpassing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yanks and Rays.
Most of the readers here on HBT are probably already Baseball Prospectus fans, and possibly subscribers, but head on over and pay ‘em a visit anyway.
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- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 9
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 283
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 18
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 86
- Yankees don’t plan on having to pay A-Rod’s $30 million in home run milestone bonuses 49
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks 131
- Rob Manfred says a return to a 154-game season could happen one day 66
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (283)
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks (131)
- Report: The Yankees were “fuming” at how A-Rod handled his early arrival to spring training (114)
- Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada reportedly signs with the Red Sox for $31.5 million, plus $31.5 million in penalties (106)
- Gregg Zaun says young players should be physically abused and hazed by veterans. So they can learn respect. (105)