Jun 2, 2010, 7:51 PM EDT
The great folks at Baseball Prospectus are once again running playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams, using a formula that plays out the rest of the 2010 season 1,000,000 times. With pretty much every division up for grabs through June 2, it’s at least a fun thing to look at.
Not to spoil the entire read, but here are a few of the more interesting nuggets:
- The Reds, who currently own a one-game lead in the National League Central, have only a 30.5% chance of winning the division.
- The Cardinals, who trail the Reds, have a 63.5% shot at taking the NL Central crown.
- There’s a similar scenario playing out in the American League East, where the Rays lead the Yankees by 2.5 games, but only have a 30.3% chance of winning baseball’s toughest division.
- The Twins, with a 69.1% chance of winning the American League Central, have the highest probability of making the playoffs out of every team in the game.
- Meanwhile the Orioles have the lowest probability of winning a division crown, with a 0.00038% chance of surpassing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yanks and Rays.
Most of the readers here on HBT are probably already Baseball Prospectus fans, and possibly subscribers, but head on over and pay ‘em a visit anyway.
- Clayton Kershaw wins his 20th game of the season 6
- Why are so many people acting like Bryce Harper is a bum? 75
- It certainly looks like Barry Bonds’ criminal conviction is going to be overturned 77
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 70
- VIDEO: Derek Jeter hits first home run at Yankee Stadium this season 11
- Ron Washington claims he resigned because he cheated on his wife 102
- No, baseball does not need to “announce a domestic violence policy ASAP” 52
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 48
- Geddy Lee’s baseball obsession makes it really hard for me to hate Rush (105)
- Ron Washington claims he resigned because he cheated on his wife (102)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights (83)
- Umpire ejects jackwagon fan heckling Bryce Harper in Atlanta last night (82)
- Jonathan Papelbon blows save, gets ejected for making rude gesture at booing crowd (77)