Jun 2, 2010, 7:51 PM EST
The great folks at Baseball Prospectus are once again running playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams, using a formula that plays out the rest of the 2010 season 1,000,000 times. With pretty much every division up for grabs through June 2, it’s at least a fun thing to look at.
Not to spoil the entire read, but here are a few of the more interesting nuggets:
- The Reds, who currently own a one-game lead in the National League Central, have only a 30.5% chance of winning the division.
- The Cardinals, who trail the Reds, have a 63.5% shot at taking the NL Central crown.
- There’s a similar scenario playing out in the American League East, where the Rays lead the Yankees by 2.5 games, but only have a 30.3% chance of winning baseball’s toughest division.
- The Twins, with a 69.1% chance of winning the American League Central, have the highest probability of making the playoffs out of every team in the game.
- Meanwhile the Orioles have the lowest probability of winning a division crown, with a 0.00038% chance of surpassing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yanks and Rays.
Most of the readers here on HBT are probably already Baseball Prospectus fans, and possibly subscribers, but head on over and pay ‘em a visit anyway.
- Phillies GM told Ryan Howard they’d be better off “not with him but without him” 82
- Trea Turner’s agent is unhappy his client is in limbo after trade to Nationals 46
- Nexen Heroes accept Jung-Ho Kang posting fee from unidentified MLB team 31
- Giants acquire Casey McGehee from the Marlins 16
- The Padres have given their fans something to talk about. Which is badly needed in San Diego. 64
- Justin Upton traded to the Padres for three prospects 79
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. 144
- Jake Peavy agrees to a two-year, $24 million deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants 26
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (144)
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. (144)
- Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, and Astros interested in Phillies’ Cole Hamels (111)
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade (97)
- Chase Headley signs a four-year deal with the Yankees worth at least $52 million. (95)