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What's wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? A lot, actually

Jun 25, 2010, 12:45 PM EDT

Lost in Dustin Pedroia’s heroics last night is that Jonathan Papelbon blew a save on back-to-back days for the first time in his career and blew consecutive saves, period, for just the third time.
Here’s what he said afterward:

I’ve got to go back to the drawing board. It’s just that simple. If I sit here and try to make things more complicated than they are I’m only going to hurt myself in the long run. I wasn’t crisp in my delivery. That’s basically it. I mean, it’s just like anything else. The season’s a heavyweight fight. I lost Round 3. We’ve got 12 rounds to go.

Papelbon is absolutely right about not overreacting to a bad stretch in a long season and the good news is that he recovered from blowing a two-run lead in the ninth inning to pitch a scoreless 10th inning and actually pick up the win. However, the bad news is that his ERA is up to 3.98, which is by far the worst mark of his career, and Papelbon is showing significant signs of decline in several other areas:
* He’s striking out a career-worst 7.7 batters per nine innings, which is 22 percent worse than his previous career-low of 9.9 and 26 percent below his career mark of 10.4 coming into the season.
* He’s served up six homers in just 31.2 innings, which is already the highest total of his career. Prior to this season he allowed an average of six homers per 85 innings.
* He’s walking 3.4 batters per nine innings, which is even higher than his career-high mark of 3.2 set last season. Prior to 2009 he walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings.
* His average fastball velocity is down 0.2 miles per hour from last season and 0.8 mph from 2008, which would be insignificant if not for the fact that Fan Graphs shows his fastball as being a negative-value pitch so far this year after being a huge asset each year from 2005-2009.
* His average slider velocity is down 1.7 mph from last season and 4.4 mph from 2008.
* He’s throwing his splitter far more often than he did in 2008 or 2009, using it 15.7 percent of the time despite the pitch not actually producing positive results.
* Opponents are making more contact on his pitches inside the strike zone than at any point in his career, connecting on 87.8 percent of their swings.
I’m certainly not ready to write off Papelbon as an elite closer, but even looking deeper than the back-to-back blown saves the signs aren’t very encouraging. Meanwhile, setup man Daniel Bard has a 2.11 ERA, .167 opponents’ batting average, and 40/12 K/BB ratio in 38.1 innings.

  1. NYCBaseball - Jun 25, 2010 at 3:32 PM

    It’s karma, baby.

  2. JoeSixPack - Jun 25, 2010 at 5:58 PM

    Karma? The guy has four All Star Game appearances and a World Series ring. I guess he must have done something real nice to have Karma give him that.

  3. Pisano - Jun 25, 2010 at 7:28 PM

    It’s real simple , the rest of the teams are on to him . They seem to know what he’s going to throw and they’re sitting on it . I don’t know much about the other teams , but the Yankees own him . Some say his speed is down , I’ll leave that to the stat guys. If I remember correctly his contract is up at the end of the season . You’ve got to feel for him , because his slump is coming at a bad time .

  4. Bill N. - Jun 27, 2010 at 10:48 PM

    Papelbon is a macho knucklehead who thinks he can still blow batters away with his fastball-how about changing speeds-I blame the catcher just as much-What, is he afraid to call for a slider or splitter -How about a slider on the first pitch. The key to pitching is keeping batters off balance. It’s time for the coaching staff to confront this guy & his catcher.

  5. Bious - Jun 28, 2010 at 10:52 AM

    He just isnt that good

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