Comments on: Twins overvalued the save stat and overpaid for Matt Capps

By: JBerardi

JBerardi — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 15:10:56 +0000

Well, they would have needed to outbid the Twins’ ridiculous offer… Boston isn’t about to ship Casey Kelly out for bullpen help.

By: snowbum

snowbum — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 13:26:51 +0000

Why is everyone thinking this is because they think the Twins don’t believe in Rauch? I think it wasn’t that they needed a closer, it’s that they needed a set-up man that wouldn’t blow the game. Rauch is a great setup man, so if you move him there, it’s not because he wasn’t a good closer, it’s because they needed him elsewhere.

By: Jonny5

Jonny5 — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 11:08:33 +0000

I’m not saying all trades are good because of what goes on behind closed doors at all. Some trades seem great until someone goes nuts, or their arm falls off, or they get a nagging injury, whatever. I’m just saying there is always the possibility that when a team does trade and it appears they “overpaid” it still could be the best thing to do for the team as a whole. While it looks like a mistake on the surface it may be the smartest move. that’s all. I’m not against him reporting what he see’s in numbers. I will admit I don’t like how he rips into the Twins the way he does when all he has is one small part of the entire story between a team and a player.

By: BC

BC — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 10:37:37 +0000

Having an extra quality arm in the bullpen is never a bad thing. If you consider Capps and Rauch to be roughly equal, having two is better than having one.
BTW… if Capps was available, where the heck were the Red Sox and Phillies on this?

By: Evan2442

Evan2442 — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 10:32:15 +0000

As someone who’s watched Capps all year, I was quite surprised when I saw this move. Besides his last few saves, Capps generally gets himself into trouble by giving up a walk or a hit just about every time he comes in to close. On the other hand, his losses/blown saves were more on the part of bad defense (Desmond errors etc) than just bad pitching. But overall, Rauch is just as good, if not better. And since the Nationals have Storen, the Nationals came out on top trading a guy while he was at a peak because overall, he isn’t that good. Don’t be surprised when Capps blows one or two down the stretch.

By: The Dangerous Mabry

The Dangerous Mabry — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 10:29:53 +0000

The thing about that attitude, Jonny, is that you’re saying you need to assume that every trade may have been a good trade, because you can’t “know everything that went on behind closed doors”. Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir? Great trade for the Mets, for some unknown reason. Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson? Solid move by the Boston front office, because of something we’ll never know.
Sometimes, it’s worth looking at the deal based on what we DO know, and see what we can make of it, instead of saying that no trade can be evaluated because there might be something we don’t know. I think that’s what this article is doing.

By: Jonny5

Jonny5 — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:53:31 +0000

In a team situation you just don’t know what goes on behind closed doors. They may have a very good reason to “overpay” in a trade. They may NEED to move someone for something as simple as team dynamics, attitude issues, conflict with coaches etc.. So while Chris may seem to be coming down on the author for his stats, which I wouldn’t. I’d like to come down on him for judging a team as making a mistake for moving someone because of stats only. That’s the problem with judging these moves like a statgeek would.

By: okobojicat

okobojicat — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:47:28 +0000

Chris,
that’s and absolutely jackass way to think about. Using Ramos to land a starting pitcher would’ve helped them more. Hanging onto Ramos until next year (or this offseason) when he starts tearing up AAA (he’s still young this year for a AAA catcher) and then deal him for a 3B or perhaps a starting pitcher. Throw in Duensing or Perkins with a Ramos deal to get a starting pitcher/3B or long term solution at 2B would’ve been great. This deal is pointless because Capps is at best, a marginal upgrade within the bullpen. The bullpen hasn’t been the issue this year. Its been the worthlessness of Baker/Slowey/Blackburn for 2 months.

By: alterity

alterity — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:25:55 +0000

god, you’re a jerk. note that the guys here at HBT get paid to do ANALYSIS. nothing they do has much, if any, impact on WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. so they discuss it and GIVE THEIR OPINION. they often base their OPINIONS on WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED (which they know from, gasp, STATISTICS).
fun fact: people in the early 20th century didn’t like the new-fangled RBI stat (for much the same reason SABR types don’t like it today).

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:03:54 +0000

I hate when stat geeks check out their Excel Spreadsheets and try to tell everyone how stupid a trade is. They like Capps. They have no need for Ramos. They made a “now” deal that helps them this year. Would Ramos help them this year? No. For this year, Capps + Rauch > Ramos + Rauch. Period. You should plug that into your spreadsheet and see what the numbers give you. When I see someone run out the xFIP stat, it makes me want to throw up my Cheerios.

By: Cheap Seat Chronicles

Cheap Seat Chronicles — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:02:35 +0000

I gotta ask, John….do you really think Capps is the difference-maker for the Twins winning a World Series?
A month ago, Ramos was supposed to be the key piece that landed us Lee, Oswalt or Haren…today he’s not good enough to land Matt Capps straight up?!
Scary stuff and unless the Twinkies do roll to the World Series and Matty Capps saves 20+ games the rest of the way and saves 11 of ‘em in the playoffs, I’m not convinced this was a wise move.

By: john j pileggi

john j pileggi — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 08:56:19 +0000

Sometimes you overpay if you believe you can win the series in this year. Twins feel like they have as good a shot as anyone and are willing to go for it.