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Not all is perfect atop AL East

Sep 24, 2010, 12:51 AM EDT

It was supposed to be an epic series: Yankees vs. Rays. The two best teams in baseball locking horns in a four-game series with the AL East lead at stake.

And after four games, we’re back where we started, with Tampa Bay’s blowout victory on Thursday preserving a split of the series and keeping the Rays a 1/2-game behind the Yankees in the AL East race.

Both teams are going to the playoffs (sorry Red Sox, but you’re not going to catch ’em), and the only thing left to be decided is which team gets to have home-field advantage against the Texas Rangers in the first round, and which team has to face the Minnesota Twins as the AL wild card team.

If we learned anything from this series, it’s that both the Rays and Yankees are flawed, and it’s time to rethink the idea that the AL East powers are indeed the two best teams in the AL. They still might be, but the argument to include the Twins in the discussion is getting stronger, as Minnesota (16-4 in September) suddenly possesses the best record in the league.

You want reasons for concern? Let’s take a look:

On the Yankees side, pitching appears to be an issue. CC Sabathia, so brilliant last week in a duel with David Price, labored terribly on Thursday, walking three and allowing 10 hits and seven runs in 5 1/3 innings. Price wasn’t much better, as both aces seemed intent on bolstering the unusual Cy Young case of Felix Hernandez, but at least Price was able to wiggle out of danger, allowing just three runs in six innings despite putting 12 runners on base.

While I wouldn’t worry too horribly about Sabathia – or Andy Pettitte for that matter – it is legitimate to be concerned about the rest of the staff, a mix that includes the inexperienced Ivan Nova, recently struggling Phillip Hughes and the enigma that is A.J. Burnett.

And despite having Mariano Rivera anchoring the bullpen, what about the rest of the crew? Aside from Kerry Wood, none of them got through this series unscathed, and Javier Vazquez – who tied a record by hitting three straight batters on Thursday – is hardly reliable. Luckily for the Yankees they have a dangerous collection of bats, because they are probably going to need them.

On the Rays side of things, the concerns are more varied. There is certainly some problems with the starting pitching. James Shields and Wade Davis have compiled mediocre seasons, and the occasionally brilliant Matt Garza, who no-hit Detroit on July 27, has also been frequently horrible. In his last four starts, he has managed to go no further than 5 2/3 innings, and has allowed at least six runs in each of his last three outings.

On the offensive side of things, the Rays face another dilemma, as their feast-or-famine offense has to be driving their small but loyal fan base nuts.

The Rays rank 12th in the AL in batting average and eighth in slugging percentage, lead the league in strikeouts and have been no-hit twice this season. Yet they also lead the AL in walks and are second only to the Yankees in runs per game.

Rays blogger Jason Collette breaks down the situation nicely here. The whole post is worth a read, but the bottom line is that the Rays make up for a lot of deficiencies with their speed, not only stealing bases but also taking the extra base at a higher rate than other AL teams. They also have hit into fewer double plays than anyone, and it’s not even close.

That being said, little slumps are magnified in a short playoff series, and if the hot-and-cold Rays hit a chilly stretch, a playoff stay could be brief.

Both the Yankees and Rays are dangerous without a doubt, but as this week’s series showed, both teams are also flawed. And when you consider that the Twins are 50-18 since the All-Star break (.735), and the Rangers will feature not only a powerful lineup, but Cliff Lee at the top of their rotation, assuming an all-AL East ALCS is a risky proposition.

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  1. Buccofan - Sep 24, 2010 at 3:23 AM

    Going against the Known Wisdom? Challenging the Accepted Order?

  2. jj jones - Sep 24, 2010 at 9:02 AM

    Overall, Wade Davis has had an above average season for a rookie. But look at the last month or so. Going into Wednesday night’s abbreviated rain-delayed start, Davis is 7-0 with a 3.62 ERA in his last 11 outings.

  3. BigPhil - Sep 24, 2010 at 9:03 AM

    Instead of a straight W-L record since the All-Star break, I’d much rather see a W-L record versus winning teams. Seems the Twins get helped out, on a simple W-L basis, by the unbalanced schedule whereas the Yankees and Rays may be hurt by it.

  4. Joe - Sep 24, 2010 at 9:18 AM

    Thanks for gently breaking the news to us Red Sox fans. Now I can enjoy Labor Day weekend without feeling the need to watch every inning.

  5. ThatGuy - Sep 24, 2010 at 9:35 AM

    Thats what happens when you make assumptions, the Twins have played 85 teams with a .500 record and the Yankees have played 86 teams. The Twins are 49-36(.576) in their 85 games, the Yankees are are 48-38(.558). The Twins actually have a better record/winning percentage against winning teams. The difference isn’t much but it disproves the whole Twins pad their schedule theory.

  6. minnesconsin_ad - Sep 24, 2010 at 10:02 AM

    this is exactly what the Twins needed to have happen, let the yanks & rays beat up on each other for a couple of series and quietly slide into the 1st seed. Who knows if the Twins can take advantage of this and head into the playoffs hot, but either way I like their chances of at least getting to the ALCS right now.

  7. BigBBFan - Sep 24, 2010 at 10:56 AM

    Interesting comments. I am neither a Yankee or Rays fan, but feel compelled to point out that the Twins play the majority of their games in a weak division. In other words not all .500 teams are created equal. It is probable that if they had to play the top 4 teams in the AL East 18 times a year their record would be somewhat lower. At any rate good luck to them in the playoffs.

  8. Ick McWang - Sep 25, 2010 at 12:50 AM

    the hot and cold Rays offense was around in 08 too, if you watched the team all year that year, it just happened that the hitters got hot (particularly Upton and Longoria) for the ALDS and ALCS but got cold (pun somewhat intended) when they played in Philly.

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