Sep 30, 2010, 12:00 PM EST
Buster Olney — or, rather, his research guy Kenton Wong — notes today that since the advent of divisional series play, the team with home field advantage in the divisional series has won
just 31 of the 60 series (25 of 48 since it changed to a 2-2-1 format in 1998). Since the advent of the LCS in 1969, teams with home-field advantage are 39-41. So yeah, maybe home field advantage isn’t that huge of an advantage.
Which goes against our predispositions — as well as some pretty major home-road splits by some teams this season — which hold that home cookin’ does a baseball game good. I’m not sure anyone can come up with a great explanation for this, but here’s my stab:
The thing that gives you home field advantage is the better overall record. The thing that gives you the better overall record over the course of a long, long season is depth, both in the rotation and otherwise. That depth, however, is seriously overrated in the postseason when you can do crazy things like lean on a couple of hot relievers and top starters, rather than go five deep, day-in-day-out. Meanwhile, the teams without home field probably had to fight tooth-and-nail to get their playoff spot, and thus were on more of a playoff footing longer, relying on a couple of top guys.
There might be a dozen things wrong with that, but I can’t do any better. Well, I could cite random chance, but people really, really hate when you do that when talking about baseball.
- Report: Red Sox offer Jon Lester six years, $110-120 million 69
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” 124
- A’s sign Billy Butler to three-year, $30 million contract 83
- Cardinals reportedly joining pursuit of Jon Lester 65
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. 148
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal 157
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal 135
- Done Deal: Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins agree on the biggest contract in baseball history 124
- Biggest deal in baseball history: Giancarlo Stanton close to 13-year, $325 million contract with Marlins (182)
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal (157)
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. (148)
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal (135)
- Done Deal: Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins agree on the biggest contract in baseball history (124)