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UPDATE: the Red Sox deny a $52 million ceiling for Beltre

Nov 17, 2010, 12:47 PM EDT

Adrian Beltre

UPDATE:  This morning the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox would not offer Adrian Beltre in excess of four years, $52 million.  Theo Epstein has now denied that report to the Globe.

This is one of those “who knows?” things. I mean, sure, you have to take Epstein at face value because that’s the best information we have right now.  But, it’s worth noting, if the Red Sox had made a determination of an offer ceiling, it’s not like they’d confirm it publicly.  Ahh, rumor season.

8:59 A.M.: That’s what Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is saying anyway.

Am I nuts in thinking that there is no way someone doesn’t beat that?  The Angles and Giants spring to mind. Several other teams would likely want to get in on that action too. I mean, sure, he’ll be 32 next season, and maybe he’s “worth” that in some abstract sense. But the market isn’t an abstract sense, and he’s a pretty unique property this winter. He’s also a Boras client.

I think that offer gets topped. With all respect to Cafardo’s source, maybe even by the Red Sox.

  1. bpasinko - Nov 17, 2010 at 9:04 AM

    I think the Angels sign Beltre and Crawford.

    The Red Sox have this irrational fear of overpaying someone which doesn’t make sense considering they can afford to do it.

    This is all speculative but the only thing I can think of is that they’re preparing to get Adrian Gonzalez.

  2. xpensivewinos - Nov 17, 2010 at 9:39 AM

    Why would anyone over pay just because they can?

    Especially with a guy who received one of the worst contracts in baseball history after his last one good year.

    Beltre’s season was a fluke. Move on…..

    Thy can move Youkilis back to third (further highlighting how valuable he is) and then can sign or trade for a stud first baseman……….and not Adrian Gonzalez.

  3. mcsnide - Nov 17, 2010 at 9:52 AM

    Beltre’s a great player, but the idea of paying him even that much over that long a term gives me heartburn. Does no one in the front office remember the results of the last time they gave a 32-year-old 3B a long-term deal? It went so well, they spent the last two years trying to give Lowell away.

  4. Ari Collins - Nov 17, 2010 at 11:07 AM

    The idea that his last multi-year $13 million deal was a bust is just flat wrong. EVEN hitting like he did in Seattle, a park that’s death to right-handed hitters, he was worth $13 million thanks to his defense.

    Only two out of three of Beltre’s last three contract years have been good. The thing that his two particularly great years have in common are that they weren’t in SafeCo.

  5. Ace - Nov 17, 2010 at 11:31 AM

    The good folks over at FanGraphs did one of their fun little “Contract Crowdsourcing” surveys for Beltre earlier this fall. The result, somewhat astonishingly: 4 years, 52 mil. Weird.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/contract-crowdsourcing-results-adrian-beltre/

    Regardless, I’m with Craig on this. I’d be surprised if anyone went beyond 4 years on him, but I could very easily see the total dollars topping 52 mil.

  6. thinman61 - Nov 17, 2010 at 11:46 AM

    In a subsequent post by Nick Cafardo, Theo Epstein denies drawing a line in the sand on Beltre.

  7. paperlions - Nov 17, 2010 at 11:53 AM

    The thing is that he may be worth more than $13M/year for the first couple of year, but very likely to be worth less (possibly much less) the last year or two. An average of $13M/year is about right for a 32/33/34/35 yr old 3B….not like his defense won’t suffer over time too.

  8. frankvzappa - Nov 17, 2010 at 7:10 PM

    where is the franchise tag when you need it?

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