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Justin Upton isn’t going anywhere

Nov 23, 2010, 9:06 AM EDT

Justin Upton

Here’s Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall, talking to yesterday about Justin Upton:

“I think he’ll probably be here on Opening Day”

Kevin Towers added, “If we are overwhelmed in a deal, great. If not, the fallback is we still have Justin Upton on our team, and that’s a good thing.”

Based on the extremely high price the Dbacks are reported to be asking for Upton, this all just feels like a flier. They’re thinking that if they can hit the lottery in an Upton trade, great, but if not, forget it. Which is probably how I’d approach it if, like Towers, I just took over a team.  Everyone fantasies about doing their own version of the Herschel Walker trade.  And why wouldn’t you?  It’s just that no one is as dumb as the 1989 Minnesota Vikings anymore, so we’re not likely to see it.

  1. The Common Man/ - Nov 23, 2010 at 9:11 AM

    Craig, let’s make a deal. I won’t bring up 1991 anymore, and you don’t bring up the Herschel Walker trade. Do we have a deal?

  2. BC - Nov 23, 2010 at 9:26 AM

    I still do NOT understand why they’re even CONSIDERING trading this guy at this point.

    • The Common Man/ - Nov 23, 2010 at 9:32 AM

      Because with VERY few EXCEPTIONS, you CONSIDER trading ANY player on your TEAM if the right offer comes ALONG.

      • BC - Nov 23, 2010 at 10:10 AM

        What in the heck would someone have to offer? And how in good conscience can you trade a 22/23 year old who is not that far off where Ken Griffey Jr. was at the same age offensively? (Yes, that sounds crazy, but it’s not, take a look). Griffey then went beserk from age 24 on for 6 of the next 7 years (he was injured one year). Trading him makes no sense, unless he’s a clubhouse problem or something, which would add an element to the discussion.

  3. The Common Man/ - Nov 23, 2010 at 11:46 AM

    It is crazy. Because context matters. Through age 22, Griffey hit .301/.366/.494. Upton has hit .272/.352/.471. But, Griffey played CF and played it incredibly well, Upton plays a corner (and does so well), but his offensive bar to be a useful player is higher than Griffey’s. Also, Upton plays in an easier era and park to hit. Griffey had an OPS+ of 138 over those first four years of his career. Upton has an OPS+ of 112, and his highest OPS+ for any one season is 129.

    There are, apparently, some concerns about his makeup, but some of that may be because of his brothers’ supposed problems in Tampa.

    He’s a good player, and is likely to be a star in this league. But he’s not the transcendent talent that Griffey was, or Jason Heyward is. And he’s about to start heading into arbitration. And that means that you could get away with trading him if you got an incredible package in return.

    • hackerjay - Nov 23, 2010 at 12:38 PM

      He’s actually singed through arb for 6 years/$50 million.

      • The Common Man/ - Nov 23, 2010 at 3:00 PM

        Good point, I forgot that.

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