Nov 26, 2010, 4:20 PM EDT
Some pretty startling stuff from Joe Posnanski today, who was snooping around in the stats, looking at what percentage of games teams win when they have ninth inning leads. He figured — as I would have — that due to bullpen specialization and the advent of the fireballing closer, teams held on to such leads far more often now than they used to. Nope:
The truth is that all the bullpen advances have had ABSOLUTELY ZERO EFFECT on how much more often teams win games they’re leading in the ninth inning. Zero. Nada. Zilch. The ol’ bagel.
Teams won 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 2010. Teams won 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 1952.
Pretty astonishing. That stat has rarely changed. What’s more, Posnanski finds that even having Marinao Rivera or Dennis Eckersley doesn’t change the equation that much.
Which isn’t to say that a team could just chuck their closers right now and be done with it. The entire pitching staff has been bent over time in order to make room for one inning specialists. Teams couldn’t simply go back to 1952-style pitcher usage, because they don’t have 1952-style pitchers. And it’s possible — though I’m not sure how one would research it — that the change in pitcher usage has led to fewer pitcher injuries because more guys are carrying the load. I’m not sure that’s even knowable, actually, because of the way we classified injuries 40 and 50 years ago compared to the way we do today. Guys who just pitched poorly back then may be on the DL today because we realize, hey, torn labrum.
But this data certainly suggests that closers have accomplished basically one thing since their creation: they’ve managed to get teams to pay closers a lot of money.
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 13
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak: Matt Adams out 3-4 months, possibly the year, with torn quad 37
- Bryce Harper leads in the first round of National League All-Star voting 28
- Buster Olney: The Marlins should hire A-Rod to be their next manager 46
- Breaking down the Braves-Dodgers trade 19
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 34
- So that Juan Uribe trade to the Braves is back on … 11
- Ruben Amaro apologizes for comments about fans, admits he may have been late on rebuild 24
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (133)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (96)
- Ichiro Suzuki passes Babe Ruth on the all-time hits list (76)
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights (71)
- Ruben Amaro dismisses fans who “bitch and complain” about the Phillies’ moves (71)