Comments on: What can we expect from Derek Jeter at age 37 and older?

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:00:10 +0000

Well, those projection systems did call for him to decline from his ’09 performance, although not as much as he did. More importantly, a projection system being off for one year of one player doesn’t mean it’s not pretty dead on, on average. That’s like saying that, since most PEOPLE didn’t project Jeter to hit so bad this year, that our guesses for how he’ll do next year have no value whatsoever. But if you want to figure out how much he’ll be worth next year, you gotta start somewhere, and projecting based on his age and past performance is a pretty good start.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 22:51:53 +0000

For anyone interested there is an incredibly good piece on the Jeter/Yankees situation. For those interested here is the link:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/new-york-yankees-derek-jeter-needs-to-suck-it-up-and-sign-deal-112910

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 21:57:16 +0000

To be fair don’t most projection systems factor in past history to come up with future production? I’d be just as interested to know what those same “production systems” predicted in 2009 for Jeter’s now past 2010 system. My guess is not one of them accurately predicted is lackluster 2010 season.
I’m going to go out on the limb and say that their 2011 prediction is about as valuable a tool as their 2010 prediction was. Which is to say it’s of no value.

By: daninkatonah

daninkatonah — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 21:16:00 +0000

By way of raw comparison:
2010 slashes for middle infielder Player X: .291/.358/.381.
Player X = Mark Ellis (33 y.o.)
Feel free to offer him $15M…

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 20:26:12 +0000

To be fair, most projection systems have him bouncing back some next year, somewhere in the .290/.360/.400 range. Even with poor defense, that kind of production at short has gotta be worth $15 million.

Of course, it’s the years after 2011 that we’d expect him to really start to decline.

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 18:31:21 +0000

Derek Jeter annoys me more than the cowbells in TB. More than Scott Boras during the off season. More than the little pull ring that likes to break off sealing my carton of OJ. More than being in a traffic jam for 45 minutes just to find out it’s a rubberneck delay caused by idiots looking in the opposite lane because there’s a fender bender.

I really hope the Yankees don’t budge an inch.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 18:12:46 +0000

The only thing I would argue is that Jeter likely underperformed his true talent level last year, so that while that would likely continue to decline, if it’s a gentle decline, his nominal production should positively regress next season. I think the most optimistic projection of Jeter’s production going forward still makes the Yankees’ offer Jeter-friendly, but we knew there was going to be goodwill built into this contract. Hold the line is right.

By: Lukehart80

Lukehart80 — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 17:52:26 +0000

It doesn’t change the basic point (that’s there’s almost no way Jeter is worth whatever contract he winds up signing), but those comps seem to have been based strictly on hitting, otherwise I’d expect to see Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel on there, both of whom had a couple seasons of advanced age in which they could still bring an above average glove and decent base-running to the table.

Using bWAR, Omar is 3rd for SS from age 37 on, Ozzie is 4th. Neither had (or is having, in the case of Vizquel) anywhere near enough productivity.

Only Wagner and MAYBE Appling played well enough to merit the contract Jeter is going to get.

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 17:34:34 +0000

What can we expect out of Derek Jeter at age 37 and older? Marco Scutaro numbers at best; Ramon Santiago numbers at worst.

By: yankeesfanlen

yankeesfanlen — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 17:26:32 +0000

The continuing adventure………continues.
The money IS on the table- Does Cash have a partner.
Back to Bestbuy.com

By: ditto65

ditto65 — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 17:18:06 +0000

Ferrari actually paid him $17,000,000 (I like to show the zeros) NOT to race in 2010. $17,000,000?

By: churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged

churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 17:08:32 +0000

Also, sweet Jesus, Kimi Räikkönen of Ferrari has a $51MAAV contract? Damn these guys are playing the wrong sport.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_sports_contracts

By: churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged

churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 17:07:05 +0000

Team Jeter seems to be looking backwards, at all of the things Jeter has accomplished and all that he means to the New York Yankees. Team Yankees looks forward and has trouble seeing how Jeter can possibly be worth $20 million a year at age 37 and later

Don’t forget that many of us in the “looking forward” camp also acknowledge that Jeter was paid very handsomely for his prior service, to the tune of almost $200M and the 3rd richest contract in baseball history.