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What can we expect from Adrian Gonzalez away from PETCO Park?

Dec 4, 2010, 10:02 AM EST

Adrian Gonzalez posing

One of the things people have always marveled about with Adrian Gonzalez is the fact that he has been able to hit 30+ homers in four consecutive seasons with the Padres, despite playing half of his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. So, what can we expect now that A-Gone is about to be set loose?

Well, let’s start by looking at his career home-away splits:

Home: .263/.360/.440 with 61 home runs, 214 RBI and an 800 OPS (.279/.383/.438 with 11 homers, 42 RBI and an 821 OPS in 2010)

Away: .303/.376/.568 with 107 home runs, 311 RBI and a 943 OPS (.315/.402/.578 with 20 homers, 59 RBI and a 980 OPS in 2010)

This is the primary reason why the rest of the American League should be scared. Keep in mind, those home-away splits include 29 games with the Rangers in 2004 and 2005. Factoring in only PETCO Park, he has a .267/.367/.442 batting line to go along with an 808 OPS.

Fenway Park isn’t exactly a home-run haven, but it will certainly be a more fair environment, as Bill James Park Indices routinely ranks PETCO Park as the worst park for a left-handed hitter. Gonzalez’s natural inside-out swing should play brilliantly in Boston. His numbers should also see a nice boost thanks to playing plenty of road games at Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards and Rogers Centre, which cater to left-handed power.

So, what can we expect? Assuming he doesn’t have any setbacks with his shoulder, I’d say 40 home runs is a fair expectation for a full season away from PETCO. With a strong (and hopefully healthy) supporting cast in Boston, he also has a very good chance of topping his previous career-high of 119 RBI back in 2008.

  1. xpensivewinos - Dec 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM

    He’s streaky at times, but when he’s hot he’s like a video game.

    He’s also a brilliant defensive player. Those two Gold Gloves are legit.

    • schlom - Dec 4, 2010 at 6:18 PM

      Extremely streaky as there are periods when you wonder how he hits any homers.

  2. yankees1996 - Dec 4, 2010 at 2:16 PM

    He is a fine defensive player right there with Tex, and as a hitter, well he can carry a team when he is on. Getting him out of Petco Park is a huge plus though and in the confines of Fenway his power numbers should increase. He is most certainly one of MLBs’ best players!

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