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How many wins will Phillies’ four aces combine for in 2011?

Dec 15, 2010, 3:40 PM EDT has set an early over/under line on the combined 2011 wins from the Phillies’ four aces: 61.

At first glance (and considering the tremendous hype) that may seem like a low number, but this year Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels combined for 58 victories and Halladay (21) was the only one with more than 13.

They combined for 73 wins in 2008 and 49 wins in 2009.

  1. nps6724 - Dec 15, 2010 at 3:37 PM

    Lee and Oswalt both also played on terrible teams for half the season. Over, big time.

    • dispozblcopy - Dec 16, 2010 at 1:54 AM

      Why all the hoo-ha on these guys? The ragamuffin Giants kicked all their hineys, put up a notch in their L column, every last one of ’em, on national TV, during crunch time, do or die ball, not eight weeks ago. All their position players are over 30. The Follies are officially the Yanquis of the NL, poor man Fishtown version. Snore. Oh well, I suppose we give the billionaire sports dude a gold star for not announcing it on a half-hour TV special. Nowadays that’s considered good form, class act, the selfless dude. The end of civilization as we know it.

      • umrguy42 - Dec 16, 2010 at 1:42 PM

        “Oh well, I suppose we give the billionaire sports dude a gold star for not announcing it on a half-hour TV special. ”

        Perhaps I’m going mad (I was for watching up until he finally said where he was going), but I thought it was a full *hour* special – he was supposed to announce it 15 minutes in, but didn’t until at least a half hour…

      • Utley's Hair - Dec 16, 2010 at 7:22 PM

        The 1/2 hour vs full hour thing is what you chose to question about this post? I got a migraine trying to read it.

      • umrguy42 - Dec 17, 2010 at 1:32 PM

        @ut Well, it’s just kinda the straw that broke the camel’s back on that one for me (seen it too much in all this Cliff Lee hooha).

  2. monived - Dec 15, 2010 at 3:41 PM

    Lee-played for Mariners for half a season
    Oswalt-played for Astros for half a season
    Hamels/Halladay- lack of run support due to injuries/ extended slumps, which i’m hopeful doesn’t happen again next year.

    so definitely over.

    • Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Dec 15, 2010 at 3:53 PM

      Not to mention, Lee began the season over a month late.

  3. stealofhome - Dec 15, 2010 at 3:43 PM

    Right, Lee started 13 games for the Mariners and Oswalt started 20 games for the Astros. There’s at least 10 extra wins had they been playing for the Phillies instead.

    That’s weird, pitcher wins are so dependent on the team they play for. Maybe they aren’t that great of a stat.

    • scatterbrian - Dec 15, 2010 at 4:30 PM

      Welcome to the party!

  4. BC - Dec 15, 2010 at 3:45 PM

    If they all stay healthy, it’ll be around 70.

  5. Utley's Hair - Dec 15, 2010 at 4:00 PM

    Just remember that—in the rare instance that it’ll be a factor—the bullpen could cost them a win or two.

    • Gobias Industries - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:11 PM

      Furthermore, there’s a remote possibility that one of the “Four Aces” may accidentally give up a run or two during a start and within that same game, the offense may not score their usual 57 runs because they decide after doing it so often that it can be sorta boring sometimes, thus resulting in a loss. Unless the commissioner’s office overrules this sole loss, the “Four Aces” may not win all 140 of their starts. Again, it’s probably not gonna happen, but you never know.

      Sorry, as a non-Phillies fan, I was kinda curious how it felt to be so damn optimistic all the time like the rest of you guys. Gotta say, it felt pretty good.

      • Utley's Hair - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:26 PM

        Damn straight…wait…what? There are non Phillies fans? WTF?

      • macjacmccoy - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:32 PM

        Hey when your forced to be so damn pesstimistic when it comes to the Eagles always finding a way to let us down it nice for us to be able to have faith in a team that gives you reason to do so

    • macjacmccoy - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:22 PM

      I dunno I think this is the Year Mathieson takes a big step forward and really helps out this team in the pen.

      • Utley's Hair - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:27 PM

        And Zagurski realizes that all of his problems could be solved with a haircut.

  6. Jonny 5 - Dec 15, 2010 at 4:01 PM

    Yeah, Cole got the shaft totally last season, and should have had more wins for sure.

  7. Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Dec 15, 2010 at 4:04 PM

    There were 24 MLB pitchers in 2010 with 15 or more wins. I’m thinking the Phillies can manage an average of four 15-game winners next year quite easily. Say Lee and Halladay get 18 each, Oswalt 13 and Hamels 12….that’s 61 and I would think this scenario is pretty conservative.

    • Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Dec 15, 2010 at 4:24 PM

      PS. The Phils had 57 wins last year from their front four sooooooo……yeah I’d bet on +61 this year….

  8. RickyB - Dec 15, 2010 at 4:46 PM

    I’d say it’s much more likely that number will be under. The odds of all four of these pitchers staying healthy all year? I’d bet that at least one will break down for part of the season. Too many variables that go into accumulating wins for me to go with the over, especially with their current lineup. Of course, that lineup can still change …

  9. macjacmccoy - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:18 PM

    I Got It At 67.

    20-7 for Halladay …. 18-8 for Lee …. 15-9 for Hamels …. and 14-8 for Oswalt. Barring Injury of Course. If there is a Couple of 15 day D.L. stints then I got it closer to 54 wins.

    • Utley's Hair - Dec 15, 2010 at 5:32 PM

      I say they all go 23-7, with all of their losses coming to the Pirates, Bucs, Astros and other cellar dwellers, ERAs ranging from 2-3. And we have on our hands the first four-way tie for the Cy Young and MVP awards.

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