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Must-click link: Joe Sheehan’s predictions for 2011

Dec 29, 2010, 2:06 PM EST

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I’m in the process of writing up a bunch of phony, snarky predictions for 2011 for the Rotoworld annual.  It’s thus rather refreshing to read some actual predictions for 2011 that are backed by some genuine baseball thought.  The thinker is Joe Sheehan, and some of his predictions are going to rile some of you:

  • The Phillies will not be as dominant as you think;
  • The Orioles will be a (sorta) contender;
  • There will be tons of trades;
  • No managers will be fired;
  • Ticket prices will fall;
  • There will be greater parity; and
  • The Red Sox will win it all.

For the reasons — and I agree with more of them than I disagree with — you have to click the link. Good stuff.

  1. JBerardi - Dec 29, 2010 at 3:08 PM

    I think these are all reasonable predictions, except for Baltimore as a quasi-contender. Their young starting pitching is impressive in a general sense, but when you compare it to the already mature rotations already assembled in the AL east, it’s unclear who exactly they’re going to beat. I can see Baltimore overtaking Toronto, but that’s about it.

    • pauleee - Dec 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

      Paging proudlycanadian! You’re needed on the message board!

    • Mark - Dec 29, 2010 at 4:02 PM

      I don’t see how Baltimore is beating Toronto. The Jays front 3 is much stronger, and Drabek showed some pretty promising peripherals in his limited time in the majors. The Jays have a ton of options for the #5 spot, not that it matters.

      The only advantages in the lineup for Baltimore are Wieters (C), Scott (either 1B/DH, at least compared to E5), and…Markakis (vs Davis). Jays are much better with Lind (who should be between 09/10 production), Hill (he was injured in 2010 too, and I’d take him going forward), Escobar, Bautista (at 3rd), Wells over Jones, and Snider over Pie or whoever is out there in LF.

      The O’s have spent a shitload on the BP, but I’d still take the Jays here.

      In order for the O’s to come out on top there’s gotta be a 200 or so run improvement on their part to catch the Jays. I don’t think they’re that good compared to the Jays.

      • JBerardi - Dec 29, 2010 at 6:32 PM

        Yeah, I think Toronto is the better team, too. But Baltimore has a chance against them at least. The rest? I don’t see how it’s going to happen.

  2. Brian - Dec 29, 2010 at 4:23 PM

    ARGH I’M AN ANGRY PHILADELPHIA! ROAR! THE PHILLIES WILL WIN IT ALL! ROAR!!!

    • Brian - Dec 29, 2010 at 4:24 PM

      ARGH! I’M SO ANGRY I CAN’T SPELL “PHILADELPHIAN!!!” SEE WHAT MY PHILLY ANGER HAS DONE TO ME!!???!!?!?!?

  3. Ari Collins - Dec 29, 2010 at 5:07 PM

    The manager one seems questionable. Don’t many managers get fired even with the qualifications he put in there? And how many managers fit those qualification last year?

    Not sure about his playoff teams. Especially the As. Even in a weak 4-team division, that doesn’t seem like a very good pick.

    • pauleee - Dec 29, 2010 at 5:41 PM

      Agree about the A’s. Sure they squeeked out a 2nd place last year, but the Angels were pretty much sunk when Morales broke his leg (nice walk-off celebration!). If they do get Beltre that’s a big upgrade at third and I expect they’ll battle with Texas for the division. But they probably won’t win it. A’s get 3rd place.

      • schlom - Dec 29, 2010 at 7:27 PM

        I think the A’s are more likely to win the division than the Dodgers are.

  4. bigharold - Dec 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

    Points 1&2; I think he has a point about the Phillies and Os. The Phillies will be very good but they’re not going to have four 20 game winners and the Os will be over .500. They might not really contend but they have an excellent GM and Manager, to go with their young talent so they’re through being the AL East door mat. They are going to give the Yankees and RS fits at times.

    Points 3&4; the Padres record will suffer but they still play in the NL West. I don’t know about no Manager not getting fired.

    Point 10;, The RS aren’t winning it all with their pitching unless three of the five starters return to form and the other two maintain. For all the noise about Crawford and Gonzalez, both excellent acquisitions, they have merely replaced production that left. Adding Jenks to the BP was good inasmuch as he’s better than what was there last season but he’s not all that impressive.

    • JBerardi - Dec 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM

      “Point 10;, The RS aren’t winning it all with their pitching unless three of the five starters return to form and the other two maintain. For all the noise about Crawford and Gonzalez, both excellent acquisitions, they have merely replaced production that left. Adding Jenks to the BP was good inasmuch as he’s better than what was there last season but he’s not all that impressive.”

      Let me ask you this: who has a 25 man roster, today, that’s more likely to win a World Series than Boston’s is? Personally, I’d place the number somewhere between zero and… zero. Tampa is weaker, the Yankees are weaker, Philly has a great rotation but that’s about it. Who can you really say is stronger at this point?

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