Jan 3, 2011, 11:17 AM EST
Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times does an annual column projecting the Hall of Fame voting based on previous results and he’s had some remarkably accurate predictions in the past.
After crunching the numbers this time around Jaffe projects that Roberto Alomar will get in easily with around 87 percent of the vote and Bert Blyleven will also be inducted with about 80 percent. Both players were at 74 percent last year, which was Alomar’s first time on the ballot and the 13th try for Blyleven.
Jaffe projects that Jeff Bagwell will receive 35 percent of the vote, which is a depressingly low total for a player who’s clearly above the Hall of Fame standard for first basemen. However, according to Jaffe “only twice has anyone debuted as well as I’m predicting for Bagwell and not subsequently made it into Cooperstown.” He deserves much better than 35 percent on his first ballot appearance, but even that too-low mark bodes well for Bagwell making it eventually.
Check out Jaffe’s article to see projected vote totals for everyone else on the ballot prior to the actual results being announced Wednesday.
- Report: Red Sox offer Jon Lester six years, $110-120 million 65
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” 120
- A’s sign Billy Butler to three-year, $30 million contract 79
- Cardinals reportedly joining pursuit of Jon Lester 65
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. 148
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal 156
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal 135
- Done Deal: Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins agree on the biggest contract in baseball history 124
- Biggest deal in baseball history: Giancarlo Stanton close to 13-year, $325 million contract with Marlins (182)
- So Curt Schilling spent his evening arguing against the theory of evolution (165)
- Braves and Cardinals swap Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller in blockbuster deal (156)
- Giancarlo Stanton’s contract is backloaded. REALLY backloaded. (148)
- Blue Jays sign Russell Martin to five-year, $82 million deal (135)