Comments on: The Cubs get Matt Garza in an eight-player deal

By: hackerjay

hackerjay — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 00:06:06 +0000

A) The Cubs graduated a Rookie of the year Candidate last year.
B) Obviously, having a lot of B-Grade prospects is useful too, since you can trade them for high quality players.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 20:51:23 +0000

Moving to the NL will help, but he’s a flyball pitcher with a good-but-not-great strikeout rate. Which makes him a great fit with TB’s defense and a spacious outfield behind him, and not so good a fit with Chicago’s defense and a bandbox behind him.

I’ll be really curious to see how he does!

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 20:34:28 +0000

Think about this way hackerjay. Every year each league produces about 5 worthy candidates for ROY, at the most. That is one for every team every 3 years. And this includes all the Grade A, can’t miss candidates. Sure, sometimes there are the late-bloomers but by in large only a small number of the can’t misses make it, much less than those destined to do no better than maybe make the bigs. It seems wiser to gear up for a few Grade A’s and fewer, more hopeful Grade B’s. How you go about that is of course the rub. Maybe emphasize the up side? I just know my guys, yes the Cardinals and their organization has been consistently trashed the past decade for their player procurement decisions. But I’ll take Pujols, Molina, Rasmus, and Garcia, even if they are small in number.

By: Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward

Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 20:33:47 +0000

That’s exactly what I’m driving at, Ari. Hendry throws money at bad contracts too often. Soriano’s contract was WAY too long, it wasn’t the money on that one. Fukodome was for too much money for a big question mark. Although, I fault the Cubs less on that one. Bradley, well that one was just the wool over Hendry’s eyes. Garza will be solid, but will the team be a playoff contender in 2011 b/c of it? I doubt it. This shouldn’t be a spending year for the Cubs, it should be a cost-cutting & rebuilding year.

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 20:03:30 +0000

Well said. It should be interesting to see Garza face the Astros and Pirates.

By: psousa1

psousa1 — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 20:00:54 +0000

Good deal for both teams. Garza will feast on the NL and the Rays will re-load.

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 19:25:26 +0000

For the next few years, we’re not going to have any idea how good or bad this deal was. It’s rare a prospect truly becomes a star. Garza was a pitcher we needed, and while I’m not thrilled we dealt Archer and 4 others, I’ll enjoy the deal for what it is now; a guy I’ve always liked coming to my favorite team.

By: hackerjay

hackerjay — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 19:23:05 +0000

If you believe that, then you must think this trade was great, since the Cubs gave up four C-level major league players for one B+ MLBer.

The fact of the matter is, the Cubs had a top ten minor league system, purely based on the fact that they had a ton of guys that were projected to become major league players. The whole point of having a minor league system is to put players on the major league team. It doesn’t really matter if you do that by bringing your minor league players up, or if you trade them for major league players. nine times out of ten, I’ll take the certainty of a major league player over the uncertainty of high ceiling, but unrefined minor league players.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 19:15:56 +0000

B-Level minor league players become C-Level major league players. Nothing like a whole bunch of role players waiting to disappoint.

By: hackerjay

hackerjay — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 19:09:36 +0000

No, a thin system is one that has very few players that are expected to make it to the majors. Even after this trade I can count at least ten guys in the Cubs system that have a good chance of having major league careers, even if none of them are stars (though I like Jackson’s chances of being an all-star).

A thin system is one like the brewers where it’s debatable wether or not they have a single B level prospect.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 19:05:26 +0000

The difference is that most teams get SOMETHING out of their big contracts. The Cubs spent $144 million last year for a below-average team. They had the fourth highest payroll, and you have to go down to the 14th highest payroll to find a team that lost more games. That’s the Mariners, and they spent $50 million less than the Cubs. Even Minaya’s mets spent less and won more.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:56:16 +0000

Not by the way most people talk about farm systems. “Deep” means that you have a large number of good prospects. “Deep” doesn’t have to mean good; you can have a good farm system even if it’s shallow, if it has a few A prospects and not too much after that. Baltimore’s system is a perfect example of this.The Cubs system isn’t a great farm system, but it was decently deep. Probably pretty shallow now, though.

Some deep systems without any great prospects include CLE, TEX, ARI, BOS, MIN, COL, and SD. Those are all average to below-average systems, but their depth of B-level prospects means that they have good potential to end up with some A-level guys by next year.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:53:30 +0000

OK, I’ll take the hit on the spelling, lazy on my part, and yes I imagine Sweet Lou is basking in the Tampa Bay sun.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:51:09 +0000

OOPs, Forgot Marmol. Lee and Theriot just couldn’t fit into the nuthouse?

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:50:27 +0000

…Lou? Samarzda? Are you referring to a former manager and Jeff Samardzija?

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:48:14 +0000

Add Garza, to Ramirez, Soriano, Soto, Zambrano, Samarzda, and Castro. What a clubhouse. Good move Lou.

By: nick5253

nick5253 — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:46:57 +0000

I’m not a huge fan of this deal in principal. The cubs finally declared they would build from within and them immediately ship 4 of their top 20 prospects out the door for a solid #2/3 starter.

Looking closer though, the 4 lost players would not have affected the major league roster much in the next 2/3 years:

Archer – had the biggest upside of the 4, could have been a strong setup guy to Marmol or back of rotation starter in 2012 – although blocked as a starter by Z, Demp, Wells, Cashner, Coleman, Shark, Carpenter.

Lee – will not make it to the bigs until his bat comes around more. IF that happens, it would be 2013.

Guyer – blocked by Soriano, Byrd, Colvin, Jackson

Chirinos – blocked by Soto, Castillo

Plus Hendry is actually selling high on these guys. How many times do Cubs fans complain that Hendry waits until a player hits rock bottom before trading them. 2/3 of these guys could revert to average prospects by this time next year.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:44:49 +0000

Just what the Cubs need, another head case.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:43:45 +0000

A whole system of B-level prospects is by definition a thin farm system!

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:42:24 +0000

You can say the same about most teams with big contracts. People don’t like the Wells, Zito and Burnett deals, but that was their cost at the time of their free agency, just like Fukudome (who had about 10 teams chasing him) and Soriano.

Bradley was an error in Hendry thinking he could straighten him out by ‘honoring’ him with a multi-year deal, but most of what Hendry’s done that’s questionable has been at the request of those above him, especially the Tribune before they sold the team.

I don’t think Hendry’s as solid as Theo Epstein or Kevin Towers, but I’m still a fan.

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:39:50 +0000

It’s good to hear someone likes this trade for the Cubs. I was worried they gave up too much. The only guy I really liked a lot was Archer.

By: oldhighs

oldhighs — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 18:04:24 +0000

Once again, the Cubs trade young talent and prospects in order to make a deal for a big-name. This happens year after year, and it’s always fun to watch it blow up in their face.

By: Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward

Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 17:28:31 +0000

Right on. Hendry has been the problem for years now. Just off the top of my head: Fukodome, Soriano, Bradley…each of those is a terminable offense.

By: BC

BC — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 17:25:06 +0000

Wow. I said all along that the Rays should have traded Shields and not Garza… but MAN did they fleece the Cubs. Good trade.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 17:19:43 +0000

Good trade for the Rays. They can plug Hellickson in and get the same production as Garza, plus add to their already-really-good farm system. It’s an especially good deal if they use the $5 or $6 million they save towards a DH like Manny, Vladdy, or Thome.

By: streatordave

streatordave — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 17:12:25 +0000

Cubs just continue to find ways to not be competitive & yet find new ways to get less on the field for more money out of the payroll. Hendry has got to go. The Cubs need to put money back into the farm system as the Rays, Rangers, Twins & even the YANKEES have done.

By: hackerjay

hackerjay — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 17:12:10 +0000

The Cubs don’t have a thin farm system. On the contrary, they actually have a really deep system, just don’t have any huge guys. Their whole system is filled with B-level prospects, which is what all these guys are.
Archer has great stuff, but his control is suspect at best. He had a breakout campaign last year, but he still walked four guys per nine innings, which does not bode well for MLB success.
Lee has a great glove, but no power. In a perfect world he would be something like Elvis Andrus, which is playable, but Castro is better.
Guyer and Fuld are fourth outfielders, and Robinson Chirinos is blocked.

Garza has put up three full seasons in the AL East where he has had an above average ERA, he will be under team control for a while, and he’s only going to be 27 next season. I like the trade.

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 17:02:36 +0000

Now they’ll just flip him to NY. Wouldn’t that be something….

By: Panda Claus

Panda Claus — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 16:21:07 +0000

Hak-Ju Lee should’ve been cast as Kato in the Green Hornet movie with a name like that.

By: nctaxpro

nctaxpro — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 16:18:46 +0000

The Rays don’t *have* to trade Garza, so there’s no reason for them not to shoot for the moon here. But I think there’s actually less here than meets the eye. Guyer and Chirinos are generic C prospects, and I don’t see Lee as being significantly better than Brignac or Rodriguez.