Comments on: Mariano Rivera could pass Trevor Hoffman for all-time saves lead this season

By: Eric Solomon

Eric Solomon — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 23:50:34 +0000

Hoffman is like Raines to Rivera’s Henderson. One is the greatest ever at what he did, and overshadowed his still-worthy rival. Both deserve entry into the Hall.

By: fribnit

fribnit — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:57:44 +0000

I Think I may have misunderstood you previous post. many apologies. still I think the numbers on Rivera, all regular season, clearly show his dominance.

By: fribnit

fribnit — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:49:29 +0000

BC: you obviously allow an anti-Yankee bias cloud what I am sure is otherwise good judgment.

Mariano has the lowest Era, Highest ERA+, second highest save percentage, second highest number of career saves, has dominated his position for longer than any other closer in the relatively short history of the position.

Rivera’s Career ERA is 13th all time.
Hoffman’s is 127th

Rivera has the best ERA of any pitcher born after 1900.

He is the very definition of “dominant closer”.

Tony LaRussa, the man that turned Eck in to a closer calls Mariano the best there has ever been
Trevor Hoffman calls Mariano the best there has ever been.
Eckersley calls Mariano the best there has ever been.

There is no meaningful number or stat where Lee Smith is in the company of Rivera.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR):
Career:
Rivera, 16 season, 52.9
Hoffman, 18 Season: 30.7
Smith:18 season: 30.3

Peak WAR
Rivera: 5.4
Hoffman: 4.0
Smith 4.5

Career ERA:
Rivera: 2.23
Hoffman: 2.97
Smith: 3.03

Career ERA+
Rivera: 205 (MLB record, next is Pedro Martinez at 154)
Hoffman: 141
Smith: 132

SO I can’t see any viable comparison between Rivera and Smith.

One more stat: Win Probability Added:
Rivera is 6th all time.
He is one of only two relief pitchers in the top 20. Hoffman is 19th

Rivera is clearly the best closer of all time.

I haven’t listed Eckersley here because his numbers are skewed by his time as a starter. He has a higher WAR than Rivera but his best years were all while as a starter. His ERA of 3.50 and ERA+ 116 are both worse than any of the three pure closers I listed above. Eck’s peak WAR as a closer was 3.2.

By: Panda Claus

Panda Claus — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:10:08 +0000

CF, I didn’t mean to imply Rivera wasn’t a no-brainer–I’d have to agree with you that he is. I wonder if the priority of your #1 and #3 will actually be reversed when it comes time for voters to have their HOF say. Probably won’t matter really.

Crud, that’s what Palmiero should’ve done, worn pinstripes.

By: fribnit

fribnit — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:09:02 +0000

I think you can take it to the bank that Hoffman will go in the hall on his first year on the ballot.

He was so clearly at a level that only Mariano shares that it will be nearly impossible to not vote for him.

By: fribnit

fribnit — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:07:15 +0000

well, no. If the team is winning games by an average of over three runs, or the team has a losing record or……

To get a save in the era of the “closer” the team must be leading by three runs or less in the ninth inning or the tying run must be on base or in the on deck circle when the closer is called in.

So team record and average winning margin will have a great deal of effect on the opportunity for saves.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 19:16:41 +0000

Mariano is a no-brainer because 1) Post-season greatest pitcher ever, 2) Best ERA and ERA + career of all time in the live ball era, 3) Pinstripes.

By: BC

BC — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 18:57:11 +0000

Rivera is more remembered for his something-like 0.02 ERA with 10 billion saves in the playoffs than he is for the regular season. That’s where he has it on Lee Smith and Hoffman.
I still maintain the only closer in the last 25 years that I’ve seen that was as dominant for a stretch was Eckersley. And his stretch of time was half of Mariano’s, with half the playoff work if that.
BC <—- Not a Yankees fan or apologist

By: Panda Claus

Panda Claus — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 18:51:34 +0000

Good call on bringing up the question. I wonder the same thing.

Yet few people doubt Mariano’s next stop will be the Hall and he’s trailing in saves. Not that the stat is the end-all deciding factor, those rings Rivera has earned mean a lot more in my eyes.

Perhaps I don’t necessarily feel Hoffman has the same “lock” to him, primarily because so many other deserving relievers ahead of this era had to wait their due a lot longer than I thought they should. Gossage is one example.

By: BC

BC — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 18:31:02 +0000

Without that one two-week hiccup he had, Rivera would have had a sub-1.00 ERA and some ungodly WHIP and batting-average-against numbers. As it was, he was just godly.
He pitches the next two years and stays healthy, and he’ll stroll by Hoffman.

By: Glenn

Glenn — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 18:29:21 +0000

Aren’t the amount of save opportunities independent of team record? I understand that a low offense era like the 60′s would cause more save situations, but each team within each era has the same number of save opportunities regardless of the conditions that you mention.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 18:25:40 +0000

Is Trevor Hoffman really a “future hall of famer”? I’m not saying he isn’t, but I remember alot of talk about Lee Smith being a “future hall of famer” when he was the leader in all-time saves, and he didn’t even get a sniff. Just saying…

By: brianabbe

brianabbe — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 17:55:06 +0000

Considering this lineup won’t score as many runs due to age and a pitching staff that also should regress, Rivera will have more save opportunities. That’s not to say the Yankees will be a poor club, but at this point, it would be a stretch to see them score as many runs and win as many games as the 2010 club did. Of course, that also depends on any regression Rivera might have as well, some of which some did show with a declining strikeout rate.