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Angel Pagan: don’t count the Mets out!

Jan 13, 2011, 9:13 AM EDT

Angel Pagan homer

Angel Pagan is waxing optimistic about the Mets’ chances in 2011:

“Everyone is counting on Philadelphia, but they have to do it. I got my money on my team, bro. I love challenges and that’s why I’m looking forward to it. I believe in surprises.”

Immediately after that statement, Pagan was banned from baseball for life for being an admitted gambler.

And even if he wasn’t, he’d be committed to an asylum anyway for thinking that the Mets have a legitimate shot at knocking off Philly.

  1. larryhockett - Jan 13, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    There’s a P. Rose on the phone, he wants a piece of that action.

  2. okobojicat - Jan 13, 2011 at 9:24 AM

    Everyone writing off the Mets is really dumb. They have a much better chance of competing this year than the Padres did last year or the Mariners did two years ago.

    They have a quality starting 7 (yeah, that 2B issue) and their rotation isn’t terrible. They have three offensive stars in Reyes, Wright and Beltran. They have people who could very quickly be stars in Davis and Davis. If Santana is healthy and one of the other rotation guys play well, watch out.

    Now, I don’t think this will happen. I think The Mets will win closer to 70 games than 90. However, a couple lucky seasons by Mets players and a couple injuries in Philly and this is a wide open division.

    The total team WAR of the Phillies isn’t really that much higher with the addition of Lee vs. the loss of Werth, and the aging of Ibanez/Rollins/Howard.

    • Jonny 5 - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:04 AM

      “Everyone writing off the Mets is really dumb.”

      “I think The Mets will win closer to 70 games than 90.”

      You sound like you’re including yourself in the everyone catagory, just so you know. You do realize the Phills won 97 games last season, right? Okay, and Werth might have been responsible for half of what Lee will this season as far as wins go.

      • okobojicat - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:15 AM

        2010 Cliff Lee: 7.1 WAR (Fangraphs)
        2010 Werth: 5.0 WAR

        Now Lee was hurt parts of last year, but he is also expected to decrease in results as he ages. But he’s also moving to the NL, so maybe he’s right around 7.1 again. I’d put him slightly lower, with a greater risk of injury because A) he’s a pitcher – and B) he’s thrown a ton of innings the past three years

        My point isn’t that the Mets will win the division. My point is that the Mets have the talent to. Counting them out as you and BC do below is silly. They projections say they can very easily compete. As I said above, they have a better team and are more likely to compete than some of the surprise teams we’ve seen over the past couple years.

      • Jonny 5 - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:28 AM

        I’m not arguing about telling the future Oko. I’m saying “closer to 70 wins” is writing off a team. I’m saying, you said people doing that are dumb, that’s all.

  3. BC - Jan 13, 2011 at 9:58 AM

    If the Mets finish within 10 games of the Phillies I’ll consider it a miracle. I’m thinking more like 25 out.

    • okobojicat - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:16 AM

      So you’d give me 2-1 odds on the Mets within 10 games? I’d take that bet.

      • BC - Jan 13, 2011 at 11:20 AM

        I’d give you whatever odds you want.
        Santana isn’t going to be ready until June. Their rotation after Santana and Pelfrey is an abomination, and even saying that, you don’t know what you’ll get out of Pelfrey on a given day. They have 5 position players that are any good, 3 of whom were either hurt most of last year or are habitually hurt.
        My first guess – Phillies win somewhere around 100, and Mets maybe bleed a .500 season out.

  4. kev86 - Jan 13, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    The Mets can win 15 games a month. That will get them to 90 and a possible wildcard. LETS GO METS GO!

    • Panda Claus - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:38 AM

      The Mets can win 15 games a month…

      …if they play 30 games a month.

      The top-shelf number for them is .500 ball, but that’s just how I see it.

  5. shawnuel - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:10 AM

    “They have three offensive stars in Reyes, Wright and Beltran. They have people who could very quickly be stars in Davis and Davis. If Santana is healthy and one of the other rotation guys play well, watch out.”

    Wow…..a sorry lot to expect too much from. Perpetually injured SS, Declining (but still good) 3B, post-injury, post-youth CF, and a 1B who is a nice player but ANYTHING but a future star. Also….Santana is about 33 percent the pitcher he once was. I agree with Letterman’s usual assessment. The Mets will be mathematically eliminated by the 3rd week of spring training.

  6. sdelmonte - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    If Angel wasn’t being at least publicly optimistic, I would be surprised. It’s January. He’s coming off a breakthrough season. And you don’t want your players coming into the new year saying “yeah, those Phils are just gonna beat us every way possible.”

    It’s true that an upbeat attitude can only carry you so far. But attitude seems to be carrying at least a few New York teams (granted, in inferior sports) further than they should be going. So why not the Mets?

    And if they really stink on ice…well, we have a lot of ice right now. I’ll worry about that in June.

    • Jonny 5 - Jan 13, 2011 at 10:31 AM

      Exactly what I was thinking…. Who can fault the guy for being a positive force? I can’t. Hey, I rooted for Jimmy Rollins for doing the same thing a few seasons back.

    • Utley's Hair - Jan 13, 2011 at 12:01 PM

      As long as Beltran didn’t say it. That didn’t work out so well a couple years back.

  7. macjacmccoy - Jan 13, 2011 at 2:29 PM

    Us Phillies fans like to bust balls and act like the Phillies will win a 110 games and win the division by 20 games just to mess around and piss Craig off. But most of us know its not going to be like that. The Phillies every year no matter how much talent they have tend to go through an extended slump in the middle of the season. Which either lets a team take and build a lead or catch up to the Phillies. I dont see this year being any different. Dont get me wrong I believe the Philles will win the division but it wont be no blow out.

    But when I say that I dont include the Mets into my reasoning. Sorry guys but you will be in a dog fight for 3rd place and if you dont pay attention the Nationals could pass your for 4th. Johan Santana is hurting and really hasnt looked like himself since coming the NL.. Pelfrey is inconsisent and the rest of your pitching in low rank. David Wright is regressing and Reyes cant stay healthy along with the rest of the team. I will give it to you that the Mets do have talent but they would need for everything to go 100% there way to compete with the Braves. The way the Mets have played with this core of players I dont see that every happening.

    The Braves pretty much stayed the same there top pitchers are getting old but there young position players are getting older to which is a good thing. They have the ability to to win 93-94 games. So the Phillies will have to play with urgency bc if they allow themselves to take there foot of the gas they could be passed by the Braves.

    And Fish who knows you never no what they are going to do year from year. They could win 70 games or 90. So I think Mets fans should be realistic. They should just be worried about not letting the Marlins or Nationals or play them then competing with the Phillies or Braves.

    Dont feel like Spell Checking

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