Comments on: Yankees agree to deal with Rafael Soriano

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 21:13:03 +0000

To Ari – you mention some good examples. Although most of them do not apply to my comment. I did mention contracts in the last 5 years. As for the more current ones you mention I really wasn’t thinking of one year or two year contracts for long time Yankee players like Riverra and Pettitte. But that’s my fault for not being more specific. As for Sabathia I remember nearly without exception people chastising the Yankees for bidding against themselves and paying Sabathia a lot more then the Brewers offered him. Kerry Wood really wasn’t a pick up he was a TD rental, and even at that Cashman has be universally criticized for not resigning him this off season. Mike Mussina goes back to 2001 so again I wasn’t thinking of him in my original comment. I’ll give you Abreu, he was a good deal for the Yankees but he came over at the trade deadline deal in 2006. But I get your your point.
I agree with your comment about the Yankees being able to eat bad contracts. In fact I mention that every time someone on this board brings up the length of Soriano’s deal. That’s it not a problem for the Yankees to hide the 3rd year of that contract should something happen with Soriano. People tend to expect or want the Yankees and to a lesser degree the Red Sox and Phillies to operate the same as teams like Tampa Bay, Twins, etc.. when it come to payroll, etc… and that’s just not the case and never will be.
Perhaps you’re right on occasion I do get defensive. I get tired of hear fans complain about the Yankees and the way they do business. They play by the rules the same way the Sox do. People complain about the Yankees payroll yet I hear very few posters complain about teams that pocket their revenue sharing money or teams that have payrolls that would embarrass a little league team. Like I said in an earlier post the pendulum swings both ways. That’s it for my soap box speech.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 20:25:07 +0000

Actually, many non-biased statistical analysts think the Crawford signing and Adrian trade were good ones.

Not to say Theo’s perfect. The Lackey signing didn’t take hindsight to see it was bad; everyone was surprised right away. Might add Lugo and Renteria to that as well, although neither seemed bad at the time of the signings. They were both coming off good years, and honestly there were no good shortstops available anywhere in FA. Anyway, point is: no GM’s perfect, and it sounds like Cashman actually had little to do with this. But it’s still a very bad contract.

And honestly, people aren’t criticizing the Soriano deal because they hate the Yankees or something. They’re criticizing it because it’s a very very player-friendly contract. Plenty of Yankee signings get a lot of credit: Pettitte’s one-year deals, the Rivera re-signing, Sabathia (except for the opt-out, and there was a vocal minority of stat-friendly people who actually liked the opt-out there), every Mussina deal, pickups of Kerry Wood and Bobby Abreu… I’m probably forgetting a bunch. Plenty of good signings and plenty of bad. You’re getting pretty defensive if you think that the Yankees are somehow being biased against by analysts.

The reason the Yankees keep winning despite some bad contracts here and there is that they have a payroll consistently 25-50% higher than the next nearest payroll. They can just eat a Pavano signing and a Jaret Wright signing and $35M and a draft pick for a setup man and keep right on truckin’.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 18:41:18 +0000

Ari – In case you are interested I’ve done the same exercise for the Red Sox for 2011 and based on their new signings (Jenks, etc..) and the few remaining arbitration cases I figure their opening day payroll will be about $177M +/-. About $15 to $20M less than the Yankees are currently expected to come in at without an additional signings.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 18:32:54 +0000

Ari – I believe I’ve accounted for most if not all of what baseball-reference is considering “other players, etc..” in my calculation. I think where we differ the bulk of it is baseball-reference is including Igawa in their calculation. I am NOT, as he is not on the opening day roster and unless I’m mistaken he is not even on the 40 man ML roster for the Yankees. I’ve accounted for everything that shows up in Cot’s plus like I said for the new signings and the arbitration cases. I think you will see if you take Igawa out of the b-r calculation and your reference it comes to within roughly $1M of my $192M +/- number. But if it makes the numbers work better for you include Igawa.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 17:53:09 +0000

It is what it is. And you are correct I would expect non Yankee fans to think that. In fact I can’t think of a single contract in the last 5 years that the Yankees have signed a player to that non Yankee fans think was a good contract for the Yankees. Yet in spite of their reactions to various signings, the Yankees keep winning. Just so you know, I would expect Red Sox fans to think the Crawford contract is a worthwhile one regardless of it’s length and cost. Most intelligent non Red Sox fans would admit long term contracts very seldom if ever benefit the team. The pendulum swings both ways my friend.

You’re right though I’m not going to argue with you. My question was a very simple one.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 17:26:27 +0000

So ignoring the contract length but focusig on the per-year amount? Honestly, I’m not going to get into an argument with you uyf, but this his an incredibly player-friendly contract, as most non-Yankee fans will tell you. Again, not going to argue with you, but read some intelligent people’s reactions.

THAT SAID, ignoring the contract ALTOGETHER, Soriano’s very likely to be a better pitcher than Papelbon next year.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 17:15:17 +0000

Adding the $10 million he’s owed in 2011 to B-Ref’s estimates gives you $197.7 now. So a little less left over than you might think, but still a bit of wiggle room.

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 15:23:56 +0000

man if they could just figure out a way to wrangle big Z away from the cubs i would be sofa king happy.

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 15:14:57 +0000

Arod hitting that MONSTER HR off him to win that game and then to tie that game and then Thames to win that game… I WAS THERE! 3rd best game of my life.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 15:13:20 +0000

To phukyouk – that’s true about Vazquez. But as the saying goes “if you fall off the horse get right back on”. I’m not sure what that saying has to do with anything. But I like it anyway.

By: jfk69

jfk69 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 15:10:33 +0000

PAPEL WHO???
You mean the Yankees whipping boy. Every time i see him come in game against the Yankees,it brings tears of joy to my eyes. He is BOSTONS JOBA at 25 times the cost…lol

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 15:06:48 +0000

“And besides AJ (AKA the head case) can’t possibly pitch any worse than last year.”

they said the same EXACT thing about Javy….

and yea i am super happy about the signing and i honestly dont care all that much about the money cause its just that… money and the Sox just went out and spent RAH-TAR-TED money on 2 players and so did the rangers and the Phils. money is what makes the world go round so im kind of sick of hearing it.

By: jfk69

jfk69 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 15:03:42 +0000

If you include the luxury tax the Yankees are spending 200 million a year in payroll now . Simply put..They don’t have the luxury of waiting five years for maybe two of those players to help them now. It is a vicious cycle at the top.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:57:02 +0000

To phukyouk – A starter would be nice, absolutely. But at least now it’s not as critical that it be #2 starter and in reality the Yankees could certainly start the season with with what they have. After all there a usually a few off days in April that should allow the Yankees to get by with just 4 starters. You’re right about Nova but he did show signs during his stay last year with the Yankees that he’s worth the risk, especially if he is only asked to go 5 innings or so to start with. I’m not really counting that much on Mitre. I think if need be one of the prospects later on in the season is probably a better alternative. But that’s just my opinion. And besides AJ (AKA the head case) can’t possibly pitch any worse than last year. He has to get better even if it’s only marginally better. Anyway the Yankee definitely look better today because of this signing. I also like the signing because maybe just maybe it allows the Yankees to think about trading Joba and a catching prospect for the elusive starter.

By: jfk69

jfk69 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:53:57 +0000

Simple…You don’t have 170-190 million dollar payroll with a 41 year closer,albeit Rivera and decide you now going to start saving money. If that was the case,Joba would be your new closer…lol

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:46:59 +0000

Pap = most over rated closer in the history of ever.

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:45:05 +0000

lets not get to cokcy… (hehe i said cocky)… its only a reliever and we DO need a starter. Mitre is Garbage and Nova is still unproven.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:12:13 +0000

To Kevin S – ever notice how Red Sox and non Yankee fans always have to justify their teams signings by bringing the Yankees into the picture and saying how they were interested in those same players. When in most cases there is absolutely no “real” evidence of any Yankee interest.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:05:10 +0000

I have a question for all my friends that are Red Sox fans. Let me re-phase that. I have a question for Red Sox fans.
For the purpose of this question. Let’s forget about the length of the contract and concentrate on this question only. I don’t want to get into all sorts of new ways to calculate a players worth, etc… just based on your gut which would you rather have on your staff for 2011.
Based on last years performance would you rather have Papelbon on the staff at $11.5M which is probably what he will be awarded in arbitration OR Soriano at the $11M the Yankees will be paying him in 2011?

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 13:56:05 +0000

Except Burnett, Teixeira and Soriano were all moves that filled holes. Crawford was a redundancy of their strongest positions. Not buying it. At all.

By: pisano

pisano — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 13:12:43 +0000

To uyf1950….I can’t agree with you more, in essence this signing makes a world of difference for the Yankees. Things are a hell of alot brighter this morning. Like you said it’s become a 5 or 6 inning game now. I saw signs of promise with Nova, we all need to remember he’s still very young and he is only going to get better. One other note, people are down on Mitre, this guy when healthy can be a big help. A solid 3 or 4 would put the Yankees over the top, but if that doesn’t happen I think they can win with what they have in house. I still like the idea of trading Joba I think a change will do him and the Yankees a world of good.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:52:09 +0000

Agree!!!!

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:47:22 +0000

To pisano – All of a sudden having Nova and potentially Mitre as the #4 and #5 starters doesn’t scare/concern me as much as it did a few day ago. When I think the Yankees have the option of bringing in Logan/Joba/Feliciano in the 6th inning, Robertson in the 7th inning, Soriano in the 8th inning and Mo to close out the game in the 9th. It brings a smile to my face.
Now all they Yankees need is for these guys to through the 5th inning in most cases and Nova for the most part has looked pretty good in his time with the Yankees for the first 5 innings. It generally after that, that he gets into some trouble.
Soriano’s signing does a lot more then shore up the bullpen, it also shores up the starting rotation in a way.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:38:56 +0000

Concern the comment about the Yankees and the luxury tax implications. Unless I’m mistaken 2011 is the last year under the current CBA for the luxury. No doubt it will be extended in some form or another, but at this point all can can do is go on what we know. It is set at payrolls exceeding $178M. If my calculations are correct with the Soriano signing and factoring in all the other FA signings to date and potential arbitration awards the Yankees opening day payroll will be about $192M. That’s $14M over the luxury tax threshold. At a 40% tax rate that comes to $5.6M luxury tax as it would stand today. I’m sure there is probably more to it than that, but the fact is with probably only one potential big FA signing left at some point this season the Yankees are on track to have their lowest ever luxury tax bill.

By: yankeesfanlen

yankeesfanlen — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:36:47 +0000

Great catch, excellent planning by Cashman.
No more having to bring Mo in for 4 or 5 outs. That should further enhance his longevity.
AJ stinks some night? Get the hook in the fourth or fifth, no problem.
CC can make it all the way to the bridge, Phil through the sixth, Mr. Fiddley-Fart to that bridge most of the time.
Who needs starters!

By: jfk69

jfk69 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:28:48 +0000

Great deal
Soriano can opt out any year he chooses. So if this doesn’t work out the Yankees get back a type A draft pick ,who will probably never play for them.
Gteat insurance policy and way better than dead Wood deal ,who if they signed would have probaly reverted to his old form or ended up injured.
Now if PETIT comes back mid season and we see some of the killer bees get a taste, we will be fine.
Tampa is done…That leaves the YANKEES AND BOSTON AS 1 AND WILD CARD.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:06:31 +0000

ESPN is reporting the deal is for $35M over 3 years. $10M – 1st year, $11M – 2nd year and $14M the 3rd year. He can opt out after either the 1st or 2nd year if he so chooses. I think the way it’s presented it’s a good deal for the Yankees. If he does opt out the Yankees are off the hook for the most expensive portion of the contract.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 11:26:22 +0000

One additional comment. I’ve been keeping track of the Yankee signings Soriano, Martin, Feliciano, etc…and factoring in anticipated arbitration awards for players like Hughes, Joba and the rest I have the current Yankee opening day payroll at $192M plus or minus. That’s still about $15M less than their 2010 opening day payroll figures. More than enough to sign a #2 or #3 starting pitcher if one becomes available via trade or otherwise.

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 11:08:58 +0000

I agree Ari; however, Burnett really sucked for the Yankees.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 11:08:29 +0000

I love the move. Finally the Yankees did something this summer to improve a weak spot in their pitching roster. It’s comical to read many of the non Yankee fans posts. First they say the Yankees don’t live by the norms of other teams because of their money and complain about it. Then when they pay more then the “conventional wisdom” says they should for a player the general comment from these same posters is their crazy paying that much. Did the Yankees pay more for him than any other team would have. Sure. But remember the Yankees are not any other team. I’ve said it before the Yankees don’t rebuild, the Yankees don’t say “wait till next year”. Next year is and has been for as long as the Steinbrenners have owned the Yankees “this year”. Would any of these so called “other” teams have paid him $6M per? Absolutely. The slightly less than $12M the Yankees agreed to is the equivalent of $6M to other teams. Again like I said previously, if the Yankees only get 2 good years out of him it still worth it. They can always bury the 3rd year of the contract. Money is not the issue for the Yankees. It’s also funny to hear fans of the Red Sox talk about the length of this contract and about the unreliability of relief pitchers and probably some of that is justified. But I don’t hear them say one thing about the 7 years for Crawford or what will be 7 years they give Gonzalez after this year. As we all know long term contracts of that length regardless if they are giving to a position player or pitcher very seldom work out for the team in the later years. One final general comment about the Yankees giving up their “prized” 31st pick in the draft. Drafting potential “future” MLB players is nice. The only problem that is see with that is the word “potential”. Also, you know why prospects are so important to low revenue teams? It’s because generally they can’t afford to keep their better players of go out and get “high” priced quality players in FA. Neither of those conditions apply to the Yankees. I’ll say it one more time. I would much rather the “bird in the hand then the one in the bush”. There are no guarantees, but if money isn’t the issue I would much prefer to have the established player then reply on a chance a prospect or draft choice may make it to the major league team sometime in the future. I know some smart non Yankee fan will bring up the fact that players like Jeter were drafted by the Yankees and where would they be today if not for those players. What they fail to either mention or purposely forget is that in the late 80″ and early 90′s the Yankees had a lot higher draft picks as opposed to now when they are constantly drafting at the back of the draft.

To pisano – I agree with you about your comment on the possible trade implications this means as well. It certainly frees up Joba and a catching prospect for a trade for a #2 or strong #3 pitcher. Maybe that’s what the non Yankee fans fear the most about this trade or maybe it’s just because the Yankees are the Yankees.

To phukyouk – My firend I disagree with you about the Yankees low balling Jeter. Fist I don’t think it was about the money but the years. Second I don’t consider $17M per for 3 years based on his 2010 performance and his age low balling. I also don’t consider the roughly $240M over 13 years the Yankees will have paid Jeter low balling. Currently that’s probably the 2nd or 3rd most money ever handed out to a ball player over that length of time. I don’t consider a quarter of a billion dollars pay to a ball player any ball player low balling.

…and that’s my opinion.