Jan 14, 2011, 11:30 AM EDT
Yesterday I linked John Tomase’s dire warning about what the future may hold for Josh Beckett. Today Bill at The Platoon Advantage picks Tomase’s analysis apart. Setting aside the notion that Tomase could have used more refined metrics with which to analyze Beckett, Bill observes that Tomase unwittingly stacked the deck against him:
Even assuming plain old unadjusted ERA is the way to go, though, Tomase went about it all wrong. His cutoffs were 125 IP, 5.75 ERA, and age 30-39; Beckett had a 5.78 ERA, 127.2 IP and was 30 years old. By creating a set with lower limits at almost exactly Beckett’s numbers and with no upper limit, you’re capturing only a few who are Beckett’s age, almost none who were as good as Beckett and many who were much, much worse and/or much, much older. What happened to Jack Morris at age 39, David Cone at 38 and Dave Stewart at 38 — and those three guys are actually mentioned in Tomase’s article — has absolutely no bearing at all on what’s going to happen to Beckett at age 31, even if their previous seasons’ numbers were superficially similar.
Unless you’re really happy with the notion that Beckett is going to crash and burn next year, you should read Bill’s entire analysis.
And remember, kids: stats are dangerous things, so be careful with them. With my family history and tendencies for abuse, I never touch the stuff.
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. 15
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM 49
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 30
- Rangers activate Josh Hamilton from disabled list, send prospect Joey Gallo to Triple-A 12
- Huston Street says he’d retire if he was used like a 1970s-style fireman 48
- CC Sabathia looks like a reliever 28
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 58
- AL All-Star voting update: now “only” five Royals in the starting lineup 59
- With the same-sex marriage decision, the San Francisco Giants get another big win (276)
- Joe Maddon is the latest manager to rip instant replay. He’s got a point. (110)
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (75)
- There was a super ump show in Chicago yesterday (75)