Why does every conversation in baseball end up about money and yet the Giants win the world series.
and as a YANKEES fan I was happy for San Fran
buh bye

Thanks for solving this! I couldn’t make heads nor tails of Bref.

At least, on paper! In reality, although the most likely thing is for them to be a step below, I think they have the most upside of the three teams. I could see Longoria getting even better, or Upton really hitting some prime years, or Hellickson joining Price as an ace.

Although the Rays are Boston’s division rivals, they’re probably my second-favorite team (I’m weird like that), and I’ll be rooting with you!

(The Jays and Os, though, while they might be contenders again eventually, it ain’t gonna be this year. Especially, as you say, with having to play the three teams above them 54 times a year.)

B-R are flat out wrong with their estimate, plain and simple.

Just because people aren’t picking you doesn’t make you underdogs. Vegas has the Yankees and Boston both at 5/2 to win the AL and the Yankees slightly behind the Red Sox to win the World Series, BOTH behind the Phillies at 3/1. Texiera’s “woe-is-us” attitude makes him look silly. I hate to keep running it out there but everybody IS picking the Yankees to make the playoffs, and once you get there it’s a whole new ballgame. So Tex, “Cry me a (freaking) river!!!!”

Again, this is pretty basic. Either everyone else is right and B-R is just plain stupid, or everyone else is just plain stupid and B-R is the only one who’s got it right, or you’re wrong that they aren’t including Gonzalez, which, given the math, is the most likely result.

Let me know if you have any actual math to show me that would somehow get the Sox up to $180M. Rather than, “B-R says $160M and I don’t think they include Gonzalez even though I clearly can’t figure out how they could get there without him.”

This ain’t calculus. Basic addition shows $160M with Gonzalez next year. Unless, again, Boston gets a big FA again next year, or spends $5M on every reliever and 4th OF. I’ll believe Boston will have $25M more in payroll than everyone else’s estimates except for B-R when I see some actual simple fricking addition that supports it.

(Of course, the Rays are better than people think.)

The inclusion of “the” indicates he is referencing one team, the Yankees. His comment, taken literally, indicates he believes the Yankees are a consensus to finish last.

Again, this is obvious if you just look at the numbers. You yourself got $124M for 11 players (WITH Gonzalez), then you add the five I listed above (arb estimates for Bard, Buchholz, Lowrie, and Saltalamacchia, and then Wheeler’s option), you get $134M for 16 players, and the only spots left are the super cheap ones: DH, 3 or 4 back-end relievers, and 4 or 5 bench spots). There is no way to spend $46M for those 9 spots and get to $180M. That would be $5M each for 4th and 5th OFs and 6th inning pitchers and backup SSs and the like. You get those guys for, like, $3M on average if you are really overspending on your bench spots.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/underdog

Since they Yankees are not predicted to win the AL East, they are predicted to be among the losers. Also, given the tone of the few comments actually addressing Teixeira, most people here think of him as a loser as well.

Thus, he is right.

BTW, to put the Yankees chances in perspective, does anyone think they won’t improve their rotation as the season progresses? I don’t know exactly how they will do it, but I know they will do it. Thus, I still don’t push the Sox from also-rans in 2010 to favorites in 2011. Let’s see them actually win a few games first.

Isn’t that EXACTLY what it means? I love it really. Teixeira says exactly what everyone else seems to be saying (and what they say every year, it seems) and he’s going to get roasted.

That’s $125M for 11 players, sure, but plenty of the extra spots will be taken by players making the minimum or in arbitration. Buchholz, Lowrie, Saltalamacchia, and Bard will be making about $6M combined. Another $3M for Wheeler (I believe it’s a team option, not sure though, and if not they can replace him with someone of the same cost). So now you’re at $134M for 16 players. $26M for the remaining 9 players is eminently doable when most of that’s the back of the bullpen and the bench, and the rest of it’s 4th OF and DH.After all, we’ve already accounted for 8 of the 9 starters (not DH), 5 starting pitchers, and three good relievers. Those 9 extra spots are NOT going to take the $46M they’d need to cost to get up to your $180M.

So yeah, give me some actual breakdown that shows the Sox at your $175M or $180M for 2012. I’ve given you lots of breakdowns that show they’re not going to be that high. Give me some math that shows it that high. Not just, “that’s just my opinion. But I tend to be pretty good at judging these types of things.”

And it will be very interesting to see how well Beltre does with his 2nd long-term, big bucks deal. Hopefully, for Texas, better than he did, overall, with his first. But playing half his games in their ballpark should help him come close(r).

Again, I’d like to see how B-Ref actually gets that payroll estimate. Do you have a link? Their future payroll estimators involve a lot of free agent guesswork, I’ve been told, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they are, in fact, already adding Gonzalez in there.

I’m going to go ahead and go by Cot’s payroll obligations http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html which includes everything but arb estimates and Gonzalez’ reported extension. Add $23M for Gonzalez and another $10M for arb raises, and you’re still left with $25M before you even get to the 2011 payroll, with, again, only minor holes to fill like DH and 4th OF. And another $15M before you get to the $175M 2012 payroll you listed.