Comments on: Odds: Over/under win totals for American League teams

By: marinermousse

marinermousse — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 09:07:47 +0000

I have got to LOVE the over on the White Sox. They added Dunn and both Quentin and Beckham had off years. They have FIVE real starting pitchers, if Peavy comes out of the chute OK, with Edwin Jackson being one of the better #5 pitchers in the AL for sure. They will have a better closer that last year, as Jenks was erratic and the overall bullpen looks deep with Crain, Sale, Santos, Peña, Ohman.

My gosh, I have gushed so much I think I will run to the bookie right away!!

By: BC

BC — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:02:34 +0000

I missed this one on Friday – sucks to get the flu. Here are my thoughts.
Slightly over on the Yankees. Meaning Celebrity Deathmatch with Boston for the division. 95 sounds about right for both.
Way under on the A’s. I don’t understand that number at all. If they crack .500 it’ll be a miracle. Or either that it will be Wonkavision. Either way, strong under.
I would also say a close under on the Angels. Having Morales back will help, so that’s a so-so bet.
Finally, under on the Tigers. If there’s one team that will end up staying with it for the first half and then cratering out of the Twins-Tigers-White Sox, it’s them. Unless Porcello comes back and wins 17 games, their first baseman stays out of jail, and their corner outfielders actually DO something, .500 will be tough for them.

By: Ick McWang

Ick McWang — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 05:25:49 +0000

Its not a bias its a fact. I could see the Rays coming near 90 wins, plus they signed the Garfoose so thats gotta be worth a couple wins, and the Jays should be better than 76 wins but then again I’ve thought they were better before only to falter in the second half of the season.

By: marinersnate

marinersnate — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 05:02:13 +0000

I like the over on Seattle at 70, but since I have an obvious bias that is probably not worth much.

I also like the over on Texas at 87 and the over on Minnesota at 86.5.

I would go under on the Chisox at 85.5.

On to the AL East where all the interest seems to lay (I am not a fan of any AL east team):

I would take the over on both Baltimore at 76 and Toronto at 76.

I think that the Rays at 84.5 is too close to call. I was tempted to take the under but it is hard to think that this team will win less than 85 games.

And at the risk of inciting a riot:

I will take the over on Boston at 95.

And the under on NYY at 91.5.

By: baseballisboring

baseballisboring — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 03:57:18 +0000

“…and the Red Sox have won more than 95 games just twice since 1979.”
“…the Yankees have won fewer than 92 games just twice since 1996.”

These numbers mean _nothing_.

91.5 sounds about right considering Andy Pettitte’s gone and Freddy Garcia is penciled in as the #4 (with Burnett as the #3 no less).

And true, all Gonzo and Crawford did was replace Beltre and V-Mart, but they’re gonna add more value, injured players are coming back, and the bullpen has been made into one of the best in the game.

By: thinman61

thinman61 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 21:01:30 +0000

Seems to me the idea of too much competition applies more to the AL Central than it does the AL Beast. There are 3 teams there with a legitimate shot at winning that division, none of whom have a realistic shot at winning more games than the number 2 team in the Beast.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 20:49:31 +0000

It is the improvement of the O’s and Jays that will pull down the win totals in the East.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 20:01:43 +0000

thinman61 – Is that the same Felix Doubront who the Sox just shut down for 2 weeks because of tightness in his elbow and who has pitched all of 37 innings in Pawtucket AAA. If the Sox have to count on him as a replacement for one of their starters, watch out.

By: thinman61

thinman61 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:52:38 +0000

And Felix Doubront, who’s likely to start the season at AAA.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:37:23 +0000

My friend the same can be said for your Red Sox. With one minor exception. The Red Sox pitchers are known for going on the DL so I would expect that trend to continue. Outside of Lester the other 4 regulars have spent various amount of time on the DL over the last 2 or 3 years. But then again they always have Wakefield to spell someone in the group. That’s my attempt at a joke.

By: thinman61

thinman61 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:36:36 +0000

There’s no more competition in the AL Beast in 2011 than there was in 2010, 2009 or 2008. Which division did the wild card come from in those years, again?

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:35:02 +0000

This.

By: thinman61

thinman61 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:28:45 +0000

I wonder how many times since 1996 the Yankees have been this shallow in starting pitching depth? The average MLB team will have 10 pitchers start games for them over the course of a season, and right now the Yankees have solid answers for 3 of them. They’re 1 extended DL trip for any 1 of those 3 away from being seriously under 92 games.

Of course I am a Sox fan, so I’m inclined by nature to bet against the Yankees.

By: fieldingmellish

fieldingmellish — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:26:07 +0000

I’d gladly take that bet. Out of the 16 AL wild cards, 12 have been from the AL East. This season, you could make the case that 4 of the top 7 teams in the AL reside in the AL East. They beat up on each other every year and it doesn’t seem to matter much for their playoff odds. Over 162 games, it seems like it’d be prudent to take the better teams, not the easier schedules.

By: Cran Boy

Cran Boy — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:15:37 +0000

Well, I don’t beleive in NL/AL parity.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 18:57:44 +0000

Don’t see the Rays falling off of 2010 totals by 11 games. Zobrist rebounds, Rodriguez and Brignac emerge, Hellickson replaces Garza, McGee closes, with added DH punch from Manny and Johnny. Nor do I see the wild card coming out of the East. Too much competition

By: cur68

cur68 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 18:51:56 +0000

Bank.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 18:40:31 +0000

Early season UPDATE: Pittsburgh 15, Manatee CC 1 thru 4. Better go all in on the Bucs

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 18:33:30 +0000

I’m all over the Jays also. Hill and Lind rebound. Bautista at 40/100. Arencibia blossoms, Encarnacion chips in with 25 dingers, and Francisco shutting the door.

By: cur68

cur68 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:36:46 +0000

Wooo, good thing you threw in that last sentence with the ‘if’. Seriously concerned for your logic functions otherwise. There’s this book, The Wisdom of Crowds; puts out there that if you average all the guesses from everyone (no matter an expert or not) and bet on the result, you’ll be more right than wrong more often. Check it out, opens with an excellent anecdote about Frank Galton, father of modern statistics.

By: yankeesfanlen

yankeesfanlen — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:29:11 +0000

Also if you want to lose all your money.

By: Old Gator

Old Gator — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:27:41 +0000

…and pretty soon you’re back to bettin’ on chance, and then you’re back in the jungle with the beasts of burden, beasts of prey. Dis ain’t for me.

By: Cran Boy

Cran Boy — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:22:37 +0000

If you add up all the win totals and divide by 14, you get 81.6 wins per team, or 8.5 more for the league than you’d get if the average record were 81-81. Take the under on everything if you believe in NL/AL parity!

By: needtoplay

needtoplay — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:17:38 +0000

Aaron….. thank you… first time I have seen in print, from any one, that Boston actually LOST two players !! All stories make it sound as tho they added AG and CC while losing no one. While they did pick up two darn good players, they also lost two darn good players ! And while there is a delta, it is not as great as it has been made out to be… just from those additions. The returning injured are worth more, IMHO.

Thanks !

Now… let the games begin and let’s see where this all ends up !

By: yankeesfanlen

yankeesfanlen — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:14:15 +0000

Don’t have an obvious bias, uyf, leave that to me. I’ll take the over for the Universe for 10,000 ARodbucks. Over for the Tigers for 5,000 Miggybucks.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:01:07 +0000

Check out the Royals depth chart. Tough to take the under on 69.5, but I might just. http://mlb.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=kc

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 16:58:06 +0000

Good point, guess I’m being a bit harsh on the arbitrariness of 95. That’s why an over/under of 94.5 of 95.5 makes sense, too. So you don’t have those on-the-dots.

My overall point still stands. (It should stand, since I beat it into the ground.)

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 16:56:51 +0000

I like what the White Sox and Tigers have done over the winter. I’d take the over on those 2 teams. For the under I’d take KC and the Orioles. I’ll defer to others on the Yankees since I have an obvious bias.

By: ThatGuy

ThatGuy — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 16:53:58 +0000

95 isn’t really arbitrary in this column, because its what the projected wins are for them. He prob should of mentioned the number of exactly 95 though.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 16:52:22 +0000

I actually like the over on them for the opposite reason! I think Morrow, Romero, and Drabek make an excellent front three. I don’t care about OBP in that there are lots of ways to score runs, but the Jays didn’t score that many runs last year. It will be interesting to see if they have the same high-slugging/low-OBP balance next year, and if better performances from last year’s strugglers will make up for the downgrade from Wells (overpaid though he was) and a regression from Bautista.