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Springtime Storylines: Will the Braves miss a beat without Bobby Cox?

Mar 25, 2011, 5:38 PM EDT

Fredi Gonzalez, new Atlanta Braves manager, speaks with guests before the start of play against the Florida Marlins  in their MLB spring training baseball game in Jupiter

Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2011 season. Next up: The Fredi Gonzalez-led Atlanta Braves.

The Big Question: Will the Braves miss a beat without Bobby Cox?

I’ll preface my comments by saying that most of my formative years were spent watching the Braves dominate my Mets in the National League East. Irreparable damage was done to my psyche, I’ll tell you. But as much as I loved to hate those teams of the 90s and early aughts, I’ve grown to have a certain level of appreciation for familiar foes like Chipper Jones and Bobby Cox. In turn, I promise you it’s going to be just as weird for fans of opposing teams as it will be for Braves fans to see someone other than Cox in the dugout this season.

Now, don’t take that to mean that the Braves won’t continue be a pain in the neck with Fredi Gonzalez as manager. They will. They absolutely will.

While the Braves won 91 games and the National League Wild Card last season, they did so finishing 11th in the league in homers and 10th in slugging percentage. They were also 10th in the league with a .719 OPS against left-handed pitching. It was pretty obvious that they needed to add some power to their lineup during the offseason, ideally from the right side of the plate.

As luck would have it, they were able to acquire second baseman Dan Uggla, one of the consistent right-handed hitting sluggers in the game. And from one of their division rivals, no less. In early January, the Braves and Uggla agreed to a five-year, $62 million contract that will keep him with the club through 2015.

The Braves didn’t make many other changes aside from adding minor bullpen pieces like Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill, but I still think they’re improved. For example, the addition of Uggla slides Martin Prado to left field. And while Prado doesn’t fit the mold of a slugger, he should be an improvement from the pathetic .242/.302/.385 batting line the Braves got from left field last season.

Aside from Billy Wagner‘s retirement, the pitching staff remains intact. And that’s a good thing. They finished third in team ERA last season, including a 3.80 ERA from their starters and a 3.11 ERA from their lights-out bullpen. I wouldn’t count on Tim Hudson to repeat his 2.83 ERA from last season, but this staff has enviable depth. When you can afford to find a better option than Mike Minor to be your fifth starter, you’re doing pretty well.

The scary part about this team is that key pieces like Tommy Hanson, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Jair Jurrjens and new first baseman Freddie Freeman (more on him below) are all 27 years old or younger. When you figure in young pitchers like Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters and top pitching prospects like Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado, this team is built to have success for a very long time. Happy now, Craig?

So what else is going on?

  • Fredi Gonzalez intends to have fireballing right-hander Craig Kimbrel and lefty Jonny Venters share the closer role, at least to begin the year. Fine by me. Kimbrel’s dominant stuff is tailor-made for the ninth inning – and he very well could be the primary guy before the end of the season — but he has only pitched 25 innings at the major league level (this includes the postseason) and has been prone to control problems in the minors. And while lefty closers are the exception, not the rule, Venters held righty batters to a .207/.312/.232 batting line last season. Keeping both pitchers fresh and giving opposing batters a different look in the ninth inning over the course of a series sounds like a pretty smart strategy to me.
  • Chipper Jones, who turns 39 in April, is tearing the cover off the ball this spring after undergoing career-threatening surgery to repair the ACL in his left knee last August. I’m sure he’ll miss a handful of games due to various bumps and bruises, but so far so good. He might even be a switch-hitting zombie at this point.
  • Spring training statistics don’t mean a whole lot, but Nate McLouth looks healthy and is hitting pretty well, which is quite a contrast from where he was this time last year. Is he primed for a rebound season? Perhaps. But really, can things go worse for him than they did last year? If somehow they do, the Braves have a big problem in center field.
  • For a team that is expected to contend this season, the Braves are showing an awful lot of faith in 21-year-old Freddie Freeman to be their every day first baseman. However, if everything breaks right with this team, they aren’t going to ask too much of him offensively. He’ll probably bat seventh or eighth on most days, which should take the pressure off.

So how are they going to do?

I’ll say this, I like them more for the division now than I did about a month ago. Still, I’ll go the conservative route and say they’ll finish in second place and repeat as Wild Card winners.

  1. rapmusicmademedoit - Mar 25, 2011 at 6:57 PM

    That old son of a bitch was asleep half the season, they should have
    kicked that bastard out long time ago.

    toodles

    • florida76 - Mar 25, 2011 at 11:06 PM

      While Bobby Cox managed a long time and will eventually reach the HOF, it’s troubling he won only one world title with one of the best pitching staffs since WW2.

      In fact, Atlanta has only one world title the entire time in that city. That’s one less than the Florida Marlins, and one more than the Milwaukee Brewers!

      Maybe the new manager will finally be able to finish when it counts the most.

  2. Kevin S. - Mar 25, 2011 at 10:43 PM

    Considering he’s already planning to have the vastly inferior Nate McLouth hit second while the dude who was actually the best rookie in baseball last year (no, not bitter about that) hits sixth, I’d worry about them missing a beat. Yeah, I know lineup optimization isn’t that big a deal, yada yada yada, but something like that worries me in terms of how a manager views the game.

  3. macjacmccoy - Mar 26, 2011 at 6:27 AM

    Go the Conservative route yeah right. Saying that implies that you really want to predict them winning the division but instead your gonna play it safe and go with the census projections. I call B.S. on that. Even if your werent “Going the conservative route” you would have still picked them to place 2nd in the division . You just said it to hedge your bets. So if they do end up in 2nd place you can say “see I was right” but in case they win the division and your prediction is wrong you can act like you really thought they would do it all along. Do me a favor, dont go the aggressive route or the conservative route. Just go the real route and make you prediction. If I didnt know any better with all the double talk your doing I would think you were the lawyer here at PHT and not Craig.

    • D.J. Short - Mar 26, 2011 at 8:17 AM

      I think you’re taking this a little too seriously.

      • Craig Calcaterra - Mar 26, 2011 at 8:39 AM

        Shit, DJ! They’re on to you!

      • macjacmccoy - Mar 27, 2011 at 1:32 PM

        Not really just calling it like I see it. But isnt that what baseball fans and bloggers do? We discuss and pick apart every little minutiae that goes on in the game and talk about the things we dont agree with. Thats all and me personally I dont agree with fence straddling .

  4. Old Gator - Mar 26, 2011 at 11:54 AM

    With Fat Freddi managing the Bravos, I would definitely make my predictions conservatively. We watched him for a couple of seasons sort of manage the Feesh. We watched him win kudos for “getting the most out of a team” that clearly finished below its ceiling in ’09 and got off to a crawling-away-from-an-accident pace in ’10 before Scrooge McLoria lost patience when his busk-art team performed like a bunch of Keenes instead of Rembrandts and restored Fat Freddi to his thwarted destiny in Atlanta. We watched him inspire averrations of loyalty from his players, and somnambulistic performance afield. We watched his coaches feed baserunners to opposing catchers like herring to the porpoises at the Seaquarium. The logic of some of his onfield substitutions will remain greater mysteries than why the planchette spontaneously shudders when your great great grandmother has bad news for you during an otherwise pleasant game of Ouija Scrabble, or why your slamhounds always seem to detonate thirty yards short of the electric meter reader. I always wish the best for Craig, and there’s no endemic cuisine in Atlanta nearly as atherosclerotic as a horrible horsemeat and Velveeta sandwich, but he’d better hope this new crop of ballplayers think off-the-corner because you can bet Fat Freddi is going to be thinking snugly within the box, and watch Cincinnati (within whose airport confines I am currently immured waiting for my flight back to the land of swaying palms, pina coladas and invasive species) is going to waltz away with the Joker this season.

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