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Jon Heyman credits Ryan Howard for being “worth every penny” of a contract that hasn’t started

May 6, 2011, 11:49 AM EDT

Phillies' Howard smiles after scoring the game-winning run against the Astros during their National League baseball game in Philadelphia

Here’s a tidbit from Jon Heyman’s latest column at SI.com:

It’s early in Ryan Howard‘s $125 million contract. But Howard, who has a league-leading 29 RBIs, is worth every penny so far.

Couple things.

One, it’s so “early in Ryan Howard’s $125 million contract” that the contact hasn’t even started yet. He signed a five-year, $125 million extension that starts in 2012. Kind of hard to be “worth every penny so far” when he hasn’t even been paid any of those pennies yet.

Beyond that, Howard “has a league-leading 29 RBIs” largely because he’s come to the plate with significantly more runners on base than anyone else in the league. Howard has had 111 runners on base for his 125 plate appearances. No other NL hitter has had more than 96. Howard is hitting .266 with an .851 OPS with runners on, which is hardly anything special.

He’s also hitting .276 with six homers and an .854 OPS overall, which ranks 11th among MLB first basemen and 42nd among all MLB hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboard. If that’s been “worth every penny” of a $125 million contract that won’t even begin until next season then an awful lot of hitters should be asking for raises.

  1. Paul Zummo - May 6, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    Whatever Jon Heyman is paid, I can guarantee he is not worth every penny.

  2. unsatisfiedmind - May 6, 2011 at 11:54 AM

    “Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true!” – Homer Simpson

  3. paulie102704 - May 6, 2011 at 11:54 AM

    Is John Heyman the worst baseball writer out there? He is biased, lazy, and generally unimaginative in his writing. Please stop linking to idiots like Heyman. Hopefully with enough of a dip in his daily hits he will be put out to pasture with CHB Shaughnessy.

  4. Jonny 5 - May 6, 2011 at 11:54 AM

    HA!! Well just wait until it warms up and Howard gets hot. Then He’ll be worth every penny of that contract that won’t begin until next season!!! You’ll see!!!

  5. ezwriter69 - May 6, 2011 at 11:55 AM

    Wow, you caught Heyman in an error, that’s certainly worth a headline, there’s probably a Pulitzer in that for you, don’t you think?

    • dianagram - May 6, 2011 at 12:04 PM

      No, its just lazy reporting on Heyman’s part.

    • cur68 - May 6, 2011 at 12:19 PM

      If this had been the first time Heyman did this I can see asking Aaron to cool it a bit. However…not so much with the first time, Mr. Heyman. Not so much.

  6. Brian - May 6, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    uh oh, someone’s criticizing the phillies in a very logical and deserved manner. here come the ridiculous comments…

  7. BC - May 6, 2011 at 12:18 PM

    Heyman once again showing his chipwich-ness.

    • paperlions - May 6, 2011 at 1:11 PM

      chipwich-ocity?
      .
      chipwich-itude?

  8. Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 12:22 PM

    Well, Ryno IS worth every penny of his contract so far. Whether he’s worth every penny of his extension remains to be seen. (Though I’m of the opinion that nobody is worth that much.)

    And yes, he’s had a lot of runners on base in front of him, enabling him to drive them in. Which is the definition of RBI. You can’t get RBI without driving in runs. So what if he has potential runs atanding out there? RBI really are nothing if not opportunities that have been taken advantage of, and Ryno has done that.

    • Kevin S. - May 6, 2011 at 12:26 PM

      The point is he’s giving Howard credit for being the best in the league at driving runners in, while in reality he’s rather unremarkable in that respect, but just gets many more chances to do so.

    • Paul Zummo - May 6, 2011 at 12:30 PM

      The point is that RBI are not the best way to measure a player’s overall worth, especially when said player has many more opportunities than anyone else to drive players in. There are currently 13 Major League first basemen (six in the NL) with WAR totals equal to or greater than Howard. Most of them would have as many ribbies as Howard if they had as many opportunities with men on.

      • dexterismyhero - May 6, 2011 at 12:35 PM

        What were those guys totals for their first 5 years in the league?

      • Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 2:17 PM

        Any given player is worth the contract he signs—if only to the suit on the other side of the table. While I may or may not think that Ryno is worth that amount of money, that is the amount of money listed on the contract that he was offered and signed. Therefore, he is worth it.

      • spindervish - May 6, 2011 at 3:45 PM

        That’s some pretty poor logic there son.

      • Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 4:41 PM

        Care to expound on your assertion? I am not about to defend myself or my statement based on an assertion like that. Why do you claim that it is poor logic?

    • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:02 PM

      http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B

      Ryan Howard made $19 million dollars last year. Fangraphs thinks he was worth about $8 million. Even if that’s a low estimate it’s hard to see how Howard isn’t even as of now stealing money from the Phillies.

      • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:30 PM

        Sometimes I think the “thumbs down” system was invented for the Phillies fans who post on this site to say “I’m really mad that you have said something about the Phillies I take offense at but for which I have no actual argument against.”

        I can’t wait for the thumbs up with absolutely no response for this post as well. Stay classy, Phillies fans!

  9. aceshigh11 - May 6, 2011 at 12:26 PM

    You can always count on Heyman to lose sight of little things like facts.

  10. Gobias Industries - May 6, 2011 at 12:35 PM

    The joke’s on you, Gleeman. That column was actually written by “Future Jon Heyman” in 2013. He also talked in his article about how the cancellation of Two and a Half Men has mysteriously resulted in the elimination of poverty in Burundi; gas prices have fallen to a 3-month low of $9.49 a gallon; Britney Spears is still on cloud nine after her second Oscar win; and President Trump and Vice President Palin just returned from a trip to America II (formerly Canada).

    • cur68 - May 6, 2011 at 12:48 PM

      “America II (formerly Canada)”: HEY! That aint funny. Us Canadians like to think of ourselves as “Alaska South” not “America II.”

      • Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 1:13 PM

        If the Gobias Apocalypse comes to pass, and Trump wins the Oval Office, don’t you think he’d head for a place called “Beaverland” first? I’d start stockpiling canned goods, Seisenta y ocho.

    • Jonny 5 - May 6, 2011 at 12:51 PM

      If Trump becomes pres I’m moving. That would be it.

      • cur68 - May 6, 2011 at 1:04 PM

        You’ll be welcome in Alaska South. Bring a coat.

      • Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 1:08 PM

        Where would you move? Canada?

      • Jonny 5 - May 6, 2011 at 1:34 PM

        I’d probably move to Mexico. That way I can come back anytime I want, passport or not.

      • Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 2:00 PM

        Please, Jonny. The Donald would build casinos all along the border.

    • Utley's Hair - May 6, 2011 at 1:21 PM

      That tandem is the most frightening part of the Gobias Apocalypse. Though if they were the last two standing on the right, the left would start breathing a lot easier

  11. Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:00 PM

    Ladies and Gentlemen…introducing Ryan Howard…the newest punching bag for the Stat Geeks of America.

    • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:05 PM

      I don’t know that it takes a stathead to see that a guy who hits .270 and who does nothing else but hit home runs shouldn’t be paid like the best player in the league. That would have drawn a lot of criticism in the 1980’s, the 1970’s, the 1960’s, the 1950’s, the 1940’s, etc. See also: Ralph Kiner whose “demonization” by the media and owners had nothing to do with “stat geeks”

      • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:22 PM

        Yeah, everybody downplayed the guy accomplishments all these years because “he had utley in front of him” or “he had werth protecting him” Now he has neither and he is still knocking in runs. Ask Jimmy Rollins how hard it is to knock in runs. You stat geeks think it is so easy to come up with men on base and knock them in. You stat geeks don’t take into account that there are differences between getting a hit with 2 outs in the first inning and getting a hit with the bases loaded in the 8th inning. The same stat geeks who discount the save stat because “it’s only 3 outs” Yeah, tell that to the Astros and the Cardinals. There’s a reason guys like Hoffman and Rivera did it as long as they did and still do…those last 3 outs are not like getting an out in the 7th inning. They are different. I’m on the stat geek boat when it comes to some stats, like OPS+ and ERA+, but when you guys start in on RBIs and Saves, you lose me.

      • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:29 PM

        WTF are you talking about? Stat geeks never talk about lineup protection. Why don’t you try getting your stories straight before you throw a temper tantrum?

      • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:34 PM

        Here’s the story…stat geeks and phillies haters abound…they love to throw darts at The Big Piece. Ryan Howard’s first 4 years in the league were about as good as ANYBODY’S first 4 years in the history of the game, and I was told “eh, he had Utley hitting in front of him” and “Utley’s more valuable than Howard” and dumb crap like that. Puh-leeze. The dude rakes and he is hated by you all.

        I can’t stand Heyman, but he’s right about one thing…Howard is worth every single penny he makes and will make over the next 5+ years.

      • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:34 PM

        Also, you are aware that Ryan Howard’s OPS+ is actually pretty underwhelming for someone touted as a perennial MVP right? Especially when the guy is getting paid more than $20mm a year?

      • b7p19 - May 6, 2011 at 1:36 PM

        Oh no, Fiorentino, that would be an absolute shame if we lost you. So you think Ryan Howard would have 29 RBI if he played for the Padres? It really has nothing to do with whether or not the people in front of him get on base?

        You are blinded by your ignorance.

      • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:37 PM

        “Howard’s first four years are among the best of anyone”

        1.) That’s simply not true, and I defy you to find a stat–advanced or otherwise–to back that up besides HR or RBI

        2.) Even if it is, he has not repeated the success of his first three seasons in the league.

        I just don’t understand what your beef is. If you’re fine with the Phillies overpaying Howard, that’s cool. Clearly it’s not crippling their payroll. But to act like it’s fait accompli that Howard is “worth every penny” of a contract that hasn’t started, and would be bad even if he were merely getting paid what he’s being paid this year is just ridiculous.

      • Brian - May 6, 2011 at 1:38 PM

        i hate the big piece nickname. it’s just awful and contrived.

        i like ryan howard. he’s not worth the money he makes. end of story. stop getting upset about it.

      • b7p19 - May 6, 2011 at 1:43 PM

        Your crazy knows no bounds. In my opinion, of course.

      • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:46 PM

        Every time Howard does something positive, like lead the league in RBI at a certain point, or mash 50+ Home Runs and 140+ RBI on average his first 4 season, you stat geek always find a way to downplay it. Oh, his OPS wasn’t high…he had Utley in front of him…he is overpaid…he is overrated. You guys crack me up. You’re right..the guy sucks.

        And Brian…eh…I use The Big Piece to get the geeks all riled up because they all hate him. Kinda like when I call Jeter El Capitan…they hate that too. He was their biggest punching bag, but The Big Piece is taking over the crown as El Capitan gets older.
        :P STAT GEEKS!!!

      • Brian - May 6, 2011 at 2:22 PM

        but the big piece is his actual (if such a thing is officially designated) nickname. The players, media and announcers alike have referred to him as such. it’s a terrible name.

  12. Matthew Flint - May 6, 2011 at 1:10 PM

    So he is on pace to reach career averages, which have been good enough for an MVP Award, World Series Title and NLCS MVP. He is lacking the so called “protection” of Utley and Werth. He is the cornerstone to a championship caliber team and has to hear this BS about FanGraph’s projection of what he is worth. Guess what, my ticket prices have gone up because of these guys getting paid and I don’t give a shit because he is a treat to see play baseball. Just because he is not Pujols doesn’t mean he’s no good. It’s a lot of money that the Phillies obviously thought they could afford and not have to worry about 1st base for a while. No complaints coming from this fan. I’m sure fans of other teams would really hate to see Ryan Howard in their lineups. Idiots!

    • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:26 PM

      But Matt, he’s only like the 10th best 1B in the National League…don’t you know that? These fools will continue to argue about one of their heroes, Adrian Gonzalez. Now that A-Gon is in Boston, what will be your excuse when The Big Piece beats him in RBI once again this season.

    • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:28 PM

      Except he’s getting PAID like Pujols. So, like, what are you trying to say, Matthew?

      • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:36 PM

        Did Pujols sign a new contract? Did I miss something? Because last time I checked, King Albert didn’t sign a new contract yet. When he signs for less than Howard, then your point is a good one. Until then, Pujols is being paid less money than about 30% of the league so Howard’s contract shouldn’t be compared to it.

      • Jonny 5 - May 6, 2011 at 1:36 PM

        No he’s paid better than Pujols.

      • fquaye149 - May 6, 2011 at 1:39 PM

        Pujols may or may not sign a higher contract than Howard, but it seems fairly unlikely it will be substantially higher. As it stands now, Howard in his first arbitration buyout is being paid more than Pujols was in his first arbitration buyout. So there’s that. You can pick your poison. Howard is, and will almost certainly continue to be, paid as if he is Albert Pujols. Which is ridiculous. NItpick all you like.

      • Matthew Flint - May 6, 2011 at 1:42 PM

        My point is why has everyone decided that if you make X, then Y MUST be your production. The Phillies had their reasons to offer this deal, those reasons are not known by me or more importantly by YOU. Get off the guys dick.

      • b7p19 - May 6, 2011 at 1:50 PM

        I know the reason actually!! They wanted him to play first base for them and hit dingers. Why don’t I see you people defending guys like Derek Jeter, Vernon Wells, ect. Those teams had their reasons to overpay as well. You are clearly seeing through red colored glasses because you’re Phillie fans. And thats fine. It is what it is.

      • Matthew Flint - May 6, 2011 at 1:54 PM

        I have no problem with any deals that are offered. These owners are very rich (Frank McCourt excluded) and if they make an offer that they feal is beneficial to them at the time and blows up in their face, too bad. I don’t care about overpaying anyone. I just don’t understand why some do. I see the raise in tickets but each year I feel like we have a legit shot at winning it all. It’s worth it for me after years of watching shitty baseball.

      • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 1:56 PM

        Um…read my comment above b7…I am always on here defending Jeter and I have defended Wells in the past. Stat Geeks of America hate Jeter and I have alwasy said the guy is money. Of course, money is not a stat, so it is not recognized by the SGA. The SGA feels that a 3rd inning at bat with 2 outs and the bases empty in mid-July is the exact same thing as a single in the 8th or 10th inning of a World Series game.

      • paperlions - May 6, 2011 at 2:08 PM

        State geeks don’t hate anyone. They just choose to value players based on occurrences and base opinions on facts rather than loosely formed, malleable opinion. In other words, they use information to guard against lying to themselves.
        .
        I don’t hate Ryan Howard, he’s a great guy, great HR hitter, can’t play defense at all, useless on the bases, pretty ordinary at not making outs (1/OBP). I just value him based on what I know he contributes and don’t give him credit for the fact that the Phillies have other great players.
        .
        I don’t hate Jeter either. Recognizing that an aging player is declining isn’t hate it is realistic, and Jeter has been declining for years….just look back and see how great he was in the 90s, he hasn’t been that guy for a long time (offensively approximated that guy in the fluky 2009 season).

      • youcantpredictbaseball - May 6, 2011 at 5:27 PM

        just look back and see how great he was in the 90s, he hasn’t been that guy for a long time (offensively approximated that guy in the fluky 2009 season).

        Derek Jeter, 1996-1999: 121 OPS+
        Derek Jeter, 2000-2009: 121 OPS+

        He hasn’t been that in the last two years but if he was only good in the ’90s he’d basically be Nomahhh. There’s a reason Nomar’s not sniffing the HOF despite that incredible peak.

    • Alex K - May 6, 2011 at 2:40 PM

      Ticket prices are not tied to player salaries.

      No one is saying Ryan Howard sucks….people are just saying his production doesn’t match his contract. There is no personal attack from the SGA (copyright Fiorentino).

      RBI are a terrible measure of a player value. Ryan Howard would not have as many RBI if he didn’t have as many people on base when he hits. That is th SGA’s problemn with RBI, a player has to rely on his teammates being on base to get the opportunity.

  13. normb11 - May 6, 2011 at 1:38 PM

    wtf you guys talking about? Lance Berkman is clearly the best player in baseball as HE is now leading in RBi’s.

    • paperlions - May 6, 2011 at 2:00 PM

      Exactly. Howard has a lot of RBIs because Victorino (.361 OBP), Polanco (.418), and Rollins (.380) are on base all day long…..just like Berkman has a lot because Rasmus (.394) and Holliday (.509) are on base all day long.

      • sasquash20 - May 11, 2011 at 1:10 PM

        First Polanco has only been here 2 years with Howard, Victorino used to bat behind him, Rollins is as streak as they come. This season ok you can use that, but his prev years not.

  14. Joe - May 6, 2011 at 2:04 PM

    I didn’t read anybody who said that Ryan Howard sucks. Why do the Philly fans keep saying that people think Ryan Howard sucks. Ryan Howard doesn’t suck. He’s a terrific ballplayer, very worthy of a $15 million/year contract.

  15. spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 2:08 PM

    To be fair to Fior, when you factor in Howard’s defensive wonders, and his blazing speed he is probably worth every penny.

  16. tsi4431 - May 6, 2011 at 2:13 PM

    Lets not forget Howard’s “1st” whole season he was 27 years old. Heck Pujols is only 29 right now. If you want to compare today’s big hitters when they were 27 years old it would be comparable. Not when they were rookies at age 21 as in Pujols’ case, whom hit 37 HR 130 RBI with a .329 avg, simply amazing, and I hate that guy.

    For comparison with other 1b with WAR’s above Howards 2007-2011
    Texiera entered at age 23
    Prince age 22
    Gonzalez age 23
    Morneau age 23

    • Chris Fiorentino - May 6, 2011 at 2:32 PM

      DING!!! We have a winner..the first member of the SGA to wheel out WAR. And he also wheeled out A-Gon in the same posting. Congrats tsi4431. You win the latest copy of Microsoft Excel for Stat Geeks…it comes with templates already set up to figure the most common SGA stats like OPS+, ERA+, WAR, but it also has special password hidden cells that track things like BaBIP, xFIP, RAR, oWAR, dWAR, lmnopWAR.

  17. spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 2:40 PM

    So far, the Pheelies, have played 17 home games, and 13 on the road. Of those 30 games 6!, have been played against winning teams, the Braves and Marlins. Here is how their cush schedule has played out, with the teams pitching rank in parentheses. Astros-3 (16th), Mets-3 (11th), Braves-3 (1st), Nats-3 (7th), Marlins-3 (6th), Brewers-3 (10th), Padres-4 (2nd), Dbacks-3 (14th), Mets-3 (11th), and Nats-3 (7th).

    So gloat all you care to Phanatics, your schedule has been very, very soft. And Howard’s numbers are probably slightly skewed to the positive, due to the pitching you have seen. May is a different story, when you finally face some real competition. If come June 1st you have my promise, I will be the first to champion your early season success, but as of now your record is more indicative of the bums you have played than anything else.

    • ame123 - May 6, 2011 at 3:00 PM

      Sounds like you’re a buttsore Braves fan. Dont worry, they might even win a game this weekend.

    • The Baseball Gods - May 6, 2011 at 3:01 PM

      Yes, and most of the teams have such poor records because the Phillies are always beating them!! You can only beat who you play and the fact is that the Phillies are beating them. They haven’t even hit their stride yet offensively and they are 21-9. No Chase Utley (although I hear he is coming soon). Hell there are only 5 teams in the whole NL with winning records and the Marlins and Braves are two of them. Keep spewing out your BS because it makes you feel better since in the back of your head you know the Phillies are going to be scary good this season.

    • spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 3:28 PM

      As any reading rententive of this blog knows I am a Cards fan. Spew all your hyperbolic platitudes at someone who cannot count. Of the teams you have faced only the Nats, would be above .500, if you discount losses to your mighty Pheels, and that by a mere 1/2 game. But boast for all you are worth now, cause come June 1st when you are looking up at the Pheesh, and sitting at around 32-26, I will remind you that your early season success, came at the hands of, at best, the mediocre.

      • ame123 - May 6, 2011 at 3:58 PM

        A team can be 1/2 a game over .500? Everyone should subscribe to your newsletter… Oh and spare everyone your ‘predictions’, I’m sure those Marlins are running away with this division.

      • spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 4:52 PM

        If you can be a game over .500, you can be 1/2 game over .500.

      • ame123 - May 6, 2011 at 5:29 PM

        Are you stupid or just pretending to be? I cant decide…

      • spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 11:20 PM

        It’s okay, intelligent decisions are not to be expected by the Pheelie Phaithful. As predicted, your slide, once you face serious competition, began tonight.

  18. The Baseball Gods - May 6, 2011 at 3:02 PM

    **I meant 5 teams other than the Phillies with winning records

    • The Baseball Gods - May 6, 2011 at 3:19 PM

      For the most part, teams who are at the top of the division will most likely have played teams with worse records than the teams at the bottom of the division. The only two teams who should have a beef are the Florida Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Oh and I guess the Rockies suck too because they only have played one series against a team with a winning record. Just to put it into perspective the following is how many series NL teams have played against teams with winning records.

      Philadelphia Phillies – 2
      Florida Marlins – 5
      Atlanta Braves – 3
      Washington Nationals – 5
      NY Mets – 5

      St. Louis Cardinals – 3
      Cincinnati Reds – 2
      Pittsburgh Pirates – 5
      Chicago Cubs – 2
      Milwaukee Brewers – 5
      Houston Astros – 5

      Colorado Rockies – 1
      San Francisco Giants – 3
      Los Angeles Dodgers – 4
      Arizona Diamondbacks – 5
      San Diego Padres – 4

    • spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 3:35 PM

      Thanks you have helped me illustrate my point. Notice any particular patterns there? Oh yeah, all but 6 of Pheelies contests have been played against who?, Oh yeah the bottom 2 teams in each division. Ouch!

  19. Jonny 5 - May 6, 2011 at 3:06 PM

    One thing is for sure Howard riles people up, fans or not. Take it easy guys. All ball players are over paid.

  20. mikedi33 - May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

    Bottom line is there are not many teams who would not want Ryan in their lineup. Plus he doesn’t have Werth behind him for protection and he is still getting his RBI’s.. Plus he basically got Texiera money so I don’t see how he is overpaid. If a team was willing to give Werth 126 million when he never had 30HR or 100RBI, what would someone who has 40Hr and 140 RBI get?

    • spudchukar - May 6, 2011 at 3:52 PM

      A lot less then Pujols.

  21. kcq101 - May 6, 2011 at 4:02 PM

    Full Disclosure: I am a Phillies fan.
    I don’t discount the notion that he might be getting overpaid. But looking at pure baseball stats, whether you like or dislike the RBI, etc., etc., is only a piece of the pie in offering him a contract like he did. $ per “relevant or irrelevant baseball stat” so easily meaningful.

    Heyman might be wrong or right about his “earning his worth” and did incorrectly allude to Howard already being in his new contract. But the fact that the timing of his “contract” hasn’t even started is completely irrelevant as to whether he is currently “earning” it.

    A contract that isn’t dealt on the open market of free agency, isn’t supposed to represent the “market price” of production. Even when those contracts are dealt in free agency (See Cliff Lee), there are intangibles that cannot be quantified on the back of a baseball card. Otherwise, we’d be assessing Lee’s value at what the Yankees offered him and not on what he’s getting paid by the Phils.

    They offered Howard a future contract as “goodwill”, so to get him to sign before entertaining the rest of the market, under the bright idea that the closer it got to him being on the open market, the greater the risk that the “market” price would go up based on other market moves (i.e., Werth or the potential of Pujols making a deal with the ‘Cards, perhaps). There might also be a risk that, for whatever reason (hurt feelings :( ), that his inclination to sign with the Phillies would go down.

    Also, a $1 in Philly spent by the Phillies on Howard isn’t the same as a $1 that would be spent by some other market. What about collective team performance, general fan base, TV time, jersey sales, etc., etc? All have a dilutive effect on money being spent, because there’s a disproportional amount of money coming in, upon his signing, depending on number of factors. I wouldn’t even know where to begin on quantifying it all.

    Ultimately, a contract isn’t supposed to represent expected performance over the life of the contract, $1 per RBI, $1 per HR, and so on. You can argue who is a better player. But that doesn’t translate directly to monetary value. There’s certainly a correlation, nonetheless. But who’s to say that that other player(s) you’re comparing to isn’t getting underpaid?

    A fun argument to have, seeing as how a lot of us are getting our panties in a bunch. But, only just that.

  22. schmedley69 - May 6, 2011 at 5:13 PM

    Oh geez, here we go again with this crap. All of the stat heads are going to tell us that Ryan Howard is not a good player. We kind of like him in Philly. Pretty much ever since he joined the team and started mashing in the middle of our lineup, the Phils have been a very formidable team. Who cares what you guys think? We’ll take him any day. If Howard stays healthy and keeps up his current pace, he’ll be in the HOF, probably winning another WS title or two along the way. I think the Phils will get their money’s worth.

  23. schmedley69 - May 6, 2011 at 5:15 PM

    And BTW, it’s only early May, and Howard doesn’t start heating up until June. He is a second half player, so judging him now is kind of ridiculious, for both Heyman, Gleeman, and the rest of you geeks.

  24. hateradeonrocks - May 8, 2011 at 7:14 AM

    it’s fine that people want to criticize howard. we’ll keep winning and they’ll be happy with guys that walk a lot because it makes their stats look pretty. Howard’s playing gold glove defense this year too as now the weight loss is really showing the benifits he looks great. He’ll hit 40 HR’s and about 15-20 of them will come in August and September. And if guys getting OB is the only real reason for Ryan Howard’s success well then A-Rod should beat him out every year in RBI’s right? Oh wait….

  25. sasquash20 - May 11, 2011 at 4:06 AM

    Ryan Howard carries the Phillies every Aug-Sept. He says hop on board fellows its time to win the division AGAIN. All you stat geeks need to watch the man play instead of telling me he sucks. I love how 40 plus HR and140 RBI don’t mean anything. Pujouls is the only player in baseball I would take over Howard. And AP is first ballot lock for the HOF. As for knocking his defense you again have no clue what your talking about. His defense has gotten better every year. If you think you can put a stat up to dispute that your wasting your time. Howard has gotten in better shape and worked on his defense. He gets to balls now he wouldn’t have sniffed 4 years ago. So pull your heads out of your ass and enjoy a hell of a ball player!

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A managerial overanalysis epidemic
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