May 18, 2011, 10:35 AM EDT
I’m not going to panic about it because of any current slumping star, I figure Pujols is the most likely to rebound and the most likely to do so quickly. But this does make me wonder a bit about the free agency thing.
I don’t think his performance this year changes the actual value calculus too much. I mean sure, if he ends the season with a sub-.800 OPS it might, but at the end of the year I figure he’ll be back to outstanding, even if he’s a bit below his peak. But I do wonder if a couple of teams who may have considered making life difficult for the Cardinals will be scared off and that, as a result, the giant fiasco of Pujols-the-free-agent many have anticipated isn’t largely averted.
Put differently: I wonder if a quiet year from Pujols manages to thread the needle just perfectly in that it (a) won’t depress his value too much; but (b) will make his ultimate re-signing by St. Louis a relative non-event as everyone in baseball realizes that there isn’t any other team hot for the guy.
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