Comments on: Trevor Cahill is on a serious skid

By: APBA Guy

APBA Guy — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 17:20:56 +0000

Correct, of course. His early season extension of last year’s performance had the A’s broadcasters whispering “Cy Young candidate” amongst themselves, amusing had not the later fall-off been so dramatic. As Ron Shandler might say, Cahill’s real level is somewhere between last year’s high and his current skid. Unusual to see both extremes within 2 months, though.

By: cur68

cur68 — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 16:36:29 +0000

When ya gonna give Frenchy some love, Craig, man? He’s actually doing well with the BA, RBI’s and keeping the SO’s down based on full season numbers. In fact his walks are also near his best rates ever, also based on full season numbers. If it’s not too soon to count the Jays as dead in the AL Beast then it’s also not too soon to say Frenchy is having a great year.
C’mon, you can put it in print; Jeff Francoeur is having a good season, isn’t he?

By: Craig Calcaterra

Craig Calcaterra — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 15:57:57 +0000

Right, but his early season success this year showed an uptick in strikeouts and a decidedly non-BABIP-luck-driven performance. So it was like a double event: the reversal of what seemed like real early season games and then the BABIP regression that could have been expected from last year.

By: APBA Guy

APBA Guy — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 15:55:28 +0000

Unexpectedly? Craig, Craig, Craig, with all the linking you do to sabermetric blogs, truly I’m shocked.

Which pitcher had the lowest BABIP in MLB last year?

The White Rabbit, with an astonishing .236 vs. league average of .297. In our APBA league Cahill was traded immediately after the 2010 season as his absolute value based on ERA was very high, but his future predicted value based on probable regression was much lower.

What most 2011 predictions foretold was that Cahill would give up more hits. He’s also giving up more walks. Last night was an example of what we’ve been seeing since May 1st. And KC was turning those hits walks into runs, regularly if not efficiently (Moustakas bunting in the first inning with two on and no outs. Really?)

Anyway, with him and Gio both regressing as predicted, and Mr. Anderson on the DL, our long, regional nightmare is just beginning.

By: dlevalley

dlevalley — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 15:42:03 +0000

” I can’t recall the time such a good starter went sideways so totally and so unexpectedly like Cahill his without there being some physical problem.”

Lincecum, last august. He just stank it up for the month. There was a lot of talk about his conditioning, and I’m sure that played a role. But mostly it was a mechanical adjustment he had made in an effort to hold guys on base longer. He went back to his old delivery, and he went back to his old self.

Although you’re right, most of the time it’s a hidden injury.