Of course I can’t see them paying $13-$14mil for someone to setup. And I doubt that was ever a real risk.

Can you imagine the smallest market team in MLB sacrificing 2 First Round draft picks? I can’t and you still have provided a reasonable explanation why they would in this K-Rod scenario.

Agree with the first part.

Can you imagine them paying $13M-$14M for a set up guy?

The risk is that the player accepts arbitration and then you will be stuck with him for at least 1 more year at whatever number the arbitrator decides.

Milwaukee, the smallest market in MLB has become one of the best operated franchises in the game. I can’t imagine them forfeiting their chance at compensatory picks in this scenario.

Maddux did have other offers (but none for the 5 years/$75 mil that Boras was seeking) and none which would have paid him $14.5 mil for one year, which was the middle figure of what he could have won if he had gone to arbitration. He earned that for having gone 16-6 season with a 2.62 ERA in 2002. However he averaged less than 6 IP per Start, so the caution was warranted on the Braves part.

No one who is desperate for a blue-chip Closer will get stuck on the Age 29 part for very long.

Second, who and when was the last player who was low-balled and went through the arbitration process and the team won and what were the circumstances?

That Beltran clause is a rare item. And while Boras negotiated that clause for Beltran, I cannot see why the Brewers would forfeit Type A compensatory picks in this scenario. Very few teams who are going to sign a Type A Free Agent – especially a Closer of K-Rod’s resume and age (still only 29) – are going to balk at sacrificing a 1st round pick. The same can’t be said for a 35-year old Outfielder with a long list of injuries. Boras more than earned his commission for factoring that Beltran clause in.

Once the Brewers obtained K-Rod, they had most of the leverage. They already had a Closer who was getting the job done. Personally I think this is a potentially hazardous move for the Brewer’s in terms of damaging Axford’s confidence.

Boras didn’t want K-Rod to qualify for that vested option. The sooner K Rod can hit free agency the longer and bigger the deal Boras can find for him.

But the Brewer’s weren’t going to allow K-Rod to qualify for that vested option, which meant that K-Rod couldn’t go out and put up the big numbers that will help him earn more dollars.

So to solve the issue, Boras and Melvin negotiated the ‘potential’ buyout. As it turns out, the automatically vesting option has been converted into a mutual option. If the Brewers choose not to pick up the $17.5 mil, they pay K Rod $4 mil.

Then to get qualify for the compensatory picks, the Brewers will have to offer salary arbitration, which can be a low ball figure within reason, which K-Rod will then reject.

Theo did very well on the draft picks with Billy Wagner, even though I thought there was an agreement that they would not offer arbitration when he was traded there.

*Who knows what will happen with compensatory draft picks. If they leave completely, then the draft will be decoupled from the CBA and then MLB will have full control over the draft rules (international, hard slotting). I’m not sure that this would be good for the game.

Your argument regarding Maddux would make some sense if he didn’t sign for 3/$24M after his one year arbitration deal was up. Maddux (and Boras, presumably) figured he could get about $15M for one year through arbitration and then go from there and come out ahead on the deal.

Do you suppose the additional compensation for waiving the $17.5m option gets added to his base salary for purposes of calculating this year’s salary as a basis for arbitration, should they have offered it to him?

Boras clients do accept arbitration when it is favorable to them to do so.