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Adam Dunn has totally cratered

Jul 18, 2011, 10:30 AM EDT

Adam Dunn Getty Images

We talked over the weekend about how low Jayson Werth could get.  One possible answer: not as low as Adam Dunn, right?  To see just how ugly* Dunn’s season has been, check out Brett Ballantini’s breakdown of it over at CSN Chicago.  It’s pretty mind-blowing.  There’s a Rob Deer comparison in there. And I think it may be insulting to Deer.

Dunn’s collapse has been more shocking than Werth’s, simply because Dunn had probably been the most consistent ballplayer in all of baseball these past few years. Really, if you had to place money on any individual player’s performance in 2011, you probably would have placed it on Dunn having a season more or less like his past few, wouldn’t you have? Especially with the move to a hitter-friendly park and a division with worse pitching than he’s seen in the National League East the past few years?

It’s one of the biggest cliches going, but baseball is a funny game. Out of nowhere this sort of stuff happens.

*I at first wrote “To see just how uggla Dunn’s season has been …”  Which is interesting from a Freudian slip perspective, but in reality, is kind of unfair to Dan Uggla. If, in fact, anything one does to Dan Uggla short of summary execution could be considered unfair this year.

  1. FC - Jul 18, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    So to recap: Dan looks Uggla whenever he swings at the plate, Jayson is just not Werth the money Washington spent on him while New York is wondering if they can bury Jason and his contract in the Bay cemetery and Adam is pretty much Dunn. Correct?

    • aceshigh11 - Jul 18, 2011 at 11:04 AM

      Zing!

    • Phillies Homer - Jul 18, 2011 at 12:40 PM

      Somewhere John Lackey is jumping up and down, saying with his hand raised, “oooh ooh… do me next!! do me!”

      • cur68 - Jul 18, 2011 at 1:50 PM

        What about Charlie Furbush? Low hanging fruit?

      • FC - Jul 18, 2011 at 3:14 PM

        Sorry John, we don’t do Lackeys in this piece: only Super Villains.

  2. jimbo1949 - Jul 18, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    Due to Rizzo’s failure to sign the fan fave Adam Dunn for ’11, he had to appease the DC fanbase by signing Werth? 0 fer 2

  3. Jonny 5 - Jul 18, 2011 at 11:15 AM

  4. Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Jul 18, 2011 at 11:25 AM

    Dunn will hit 40 HRs in a row starting sometime this week. You watch.

    • Jonny 5 - Jul 18, 2011 at 11:35 AM

    • Old Gator - Jul 18, 2011 at 2:15 PM

      Mark your words?

    • FC - Jul 19, 2011 at 8:38 AM

      If he doesn’t do we get to see you post GO PHILLIES again?

  5. proudlycanadian - Jul 18, 2011 at 11:40 AM

    Alex Rios is probably happy that we have Dunn and Werth to talk about. Dumping Rios for nothing was one of the best moves ever made by the Jays.

  6. thefalcon123 - Jul 18, 2011 at 11:57 AM

    It’s totally unfair to compare Dunn to Rob Deer’s season. In Deer’s .179 hitting year, he had a 92 OPS+ and posted a 1 WAR. Pretty bad for a corner outfielder.

    Dunn has a 64 OPS+ and is worth -1.5 WAR. That’s right. Rob Deer’s .179 hitting season is worth 2.5 more wins than Adam Dunn’s 2011!

  7. thefalcon123 - Jul 18, 2011 at 12:04 PM

    Let’s not forget that until May 14th, Dunn was hitting a pretty bad .216/.343/.397 and striking out 32% of the time he comes to the plate.

    Since then, he is hitting .121/.251/.236 and striking out 39% of the time he comes to the plate.

    …and it’s getting even worse. Since June 16th, he’s hitting .092/.169/.197 and striking out in 46% of his plate appearances.

  8. 78mu - Jul 18, 2011 at 12:09 PM

    All these years when Dunn was butchering it up whether he played the outfield or 1B, it was obvious that the DH was perfect for him and I could never understand why some AL team didn’t get him. Now he’s a DH and he’s making Dave Kingman look like Tony Gwynne. Is this a guy that needs to play the field and be involved in the game to be able to hit? What else has changed?

    • derekjetersmansion - Jul 18, 2011 at 12:51 PM

      Prince Fielder made an interesting point at All-Star week how you have to get warm 4 times as a DH. I guess as opposed to once in you’re in the field. That’s why he said it’s tougher.

    • thefalcon123 - Jul 18, 2011 at 1:03 PM

      Who is Tony Gwynne?

      More importantly, it has very little to do with playing the field or not and likely everything to do with Dunn suffering from a little problem called TMB*. All players eventually suffer the effects of TMB, but player’s like Dunn (losta power, walks and strikeout, low average) tend to suffer it’s effects sooner than other players. He has what Bill James calls “old players skills”. Players like Tom Brunansky, Richie Sexson, Kevin Maas, Cecil Fielder ect. These guys declined early, and this appears to be the case with Dunn.

      *Too Many Birthdays

  9. Bob Timmermann - Jul 18, 2011 at 1:49 PM

    My RSS reader had this headlined “Nationals’ Dunn has cratered.”

    Then I felt really sorry for Washington having both Dunn AND Werth.

  10. foreverchipper10 - Jul 18, 2011 at 3:10 PM

    Drafting Dunn and Uggla in my fantasy league sounded like a good idea at the time….

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