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Now the Red Sox are asking about Ubaldo Jimenez

Jul 19, 2011, 5:00 PM EDT

1985 Corvette

For those of you who don’t watch the HBT Daily videos, I made an analogy in this morning’s edition that I think explains the Ubaldo Jimenez trade rumors pretty well.

My dad had a 1985 Corvette once upon a time.  He really dug that car. Low mileage. No problems with it.  Once in a while, however, mostly out of boredom, he’d put a “For Sale” sign in the window and park it in the supermarket parking lot, seeing if he couldn’t get someone to make him a dumb offer.  It was highly unlikely that anyone was that dumb, but hey, if you never try, you’ll never be able to rip anyone off.

Anyway, that’s what I think is happening with Jimenez and the Rockies. They don’t really want to trade him. It makes little sense for them to do so.  But hey, if a team is going to give up a crap-ton of talent for him, why not? And how can you find that out unless you dangle him?

Against that backdrop, know that Danny Knobler reports that the Red Sox are asking about Jimenez now too.  Like the Yankees, they saw him at the Kroger parking lot and were probably curious how much they’d have to pay for him.  And then my dad/the Rockies told them some outrageous figure and it all ended there.  Or probably did.

I don’t think Jimenez gets traded, because no one is going to pay what that Corvette is worth. But selling him isn’t really the point.

  1. proudlycanadian - Jul 19, 2011 at 5:06 PM

    Did anyone actually kick the tires of that Corvette?

  2. dodger88 - Jul 19, 2011 at 5:12 PM

    Now if only the Corvette had Boras as its agent……

  3. frankvzappa - Jul 19, 2011 at 5:14 PM

    I don’t know about an ’85 Corvette. Maybe that is what the Rockies think based on the first half of last season. These days he looks more like a prematurely rusting stationwagon. He will get the job done, but it won’t be pretty.

  4. bloodysock - Jul 19, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    The Red Sox just want to see what kind of offer their neighbor is planning on making for the Corvette.

  5. yankeesfanlen - Jul 19, 2011 at 5:23 PM

    I’ll give you the answer now. The answer is……nothing, and I’d appreciate it if you would put the plates on it.

  6. pisano - Jul 19, 2011 at 5:48 PM

    Theo probably asked to trade Lackey heads up for Jimenez, Theo expects to screw every team as he did San Diego.

    • bigleagues - Jul 19, 2011 at 7:17 PM

      Padres fan? Please identify yourself.

      And answer this question – how can you possibly make that judgement now? It may be two years before we know how the A-Gon trade is shaping up. And, don’t you think Jed Hoyer knew – better than anyone – the players he got back?

      Always good to think before you speak – or type.

  7. hittfamily - Jul 19, 2011 at 6:30 PM

    Daisuke, Lackey, Drew, Beckett and now Ubaldo. Theo is a magician, because he can (poof) make 80 million dollars…. Disappear

    • frankvzappa - Jul 19, 2011 at 6:41 PM

      Beckett? You can’t be serious including him in that list. If anything Beckett is proof Theo knows what he is doing, signing him to a major extension BEFORE he returned to form. Beckett is in Cy Young territory this year, and you apparently are an idiot.

      • hittfamily - Jul 19, 2011 at 7:28 PM

        Beckett could be the most over rated player in baseball. He has had 1 very good year, 1 above average year, lots of average years, and a few belwo average year. When people remember him, they remember the 2003 Series, and 2007. He makes 16 mil a year for something he did 8 years ago.

        He doesnt pitch deep into games, and doesnt eat innings like other 16 mil pitchers. He has only gone over 200 innings 3 times in his 10 year career, and has only gone over 205 innings once. He has 7 complete games for the sox in 6 years. James Shields, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Doc Halladay will accomplish that in 20 games. His ERA reads like an average pitcher. 5.01, 3.27, 4.03, 3.86, 5.78. He is having a great year, but which one of his previous years was he worth 16 mil? Exactly 1.

        He has had a good year, and has done a good job of keeping the ball in the ball park. I wouldnt count on it lasting all season though. History repeats itself.

      • frankvzappa - Jul 19, 2011 at 7:35 PM

        You are using the past to argue about the present and the future, when in fact Beckett is a different pitcher now. He understands the importance of command and isn’t just trying to throw it by you these days, and he will continue to be worth the money for a few more years. I was a huge detractor before the season, saying the same thing as you, but there comes a time to admit you are wrong.

      • hittfamily - Jul 19, 2011 at 7:51 PM

        Of course Im basing his contract on what he has done in the past. I can only hope a GM might take a glance at his stats before he inks him to the 6th largest pitching contract in MLB. Only 18 players make more than him in all of baseball. Look at his previous stats. Should a 3 million dollar pitcher be expected to replicate the..yes!! And although he has had a great first half, remember, he was being paid exorbitantly the last 5 years.

        My arguement isnt that Beckett is a good pitcher or a bad pitcher. Im arguing that Theo made a bad deal for his bosses.

      • bigleagues - Jul 19, 2011 at 8:12 PM

        hittfamily:

        Uhhh, yeah.

        Let me ask you this: What is so average about a .609 Career Winning Percentage (92nd All-Time, incidentally)? Or averaging 8.4 K/9 for his career (and good for 20th All-Time)? Or his 1.219 career WHIP? And how many Pitchers in baseball have proven they can handle Pitching under the pressure cooker that is the AL East? And do the same in the post-season.

        Has Beckett posted spectacular season after spectacular season? No. Is he overpaid and over-rated? He may have been paid more if he became a Free Agent, and very well could be a Yankees.

        Quite simply, the notion that Josh Beckett is over-rated is an opinion not founded in fact.

      • hittfamily - Jul 19, 2011 at 8:42 PM

        In 3 of his 5 seasons for the Sox, he underperformed. Yet The inks him to a huge deal. Alfonso Soriano could hit 100 homers next year and it wont make up for the other years.

        He has a .600 record on a .600 club. Miraculous!

        Great k/bb. Great whip. Bad innings per year. Bad ERA. The latter 2 stats are far more important.

        He isn’t an ace. John Lester is clearly the number 1, and has been for a few years. I dont think he is the number 2 either, because Bucholtz is a stud. So Theos third starter is making 17 million dollars per year for the next 4 years. I have never said he is a bad pitcher. He is a good pitcher. But his career numbers didnt justify a superstars contract. I think Theo overpayed. Roy Halladay signs for 20 million a year, the same year Beckett signed his 17 million dollar per year contract coming off a 6-6 year with an ERA at almost 6. If I own the sox and have to cut that check, I feel ripped off.

      • Ari Collins - Jul 19, 2011 at 9:30 PM

        Good thing Beckett wasn’t signed to a superstar contract, then. Lee and Sabathia and Santana, those were superstar pitcher contracts.

      • hittfamily - Jul 19, 2011 at 10:19 PM

        Lee Makes less per season than Beckett. 20 million per year is superstar money, but 17 million isnt? Was it a long flight from your planet?

      • Ari Collins - Jul 19, 2011 at 11:07 PM

        Beckett was given a $68M contract. That’s actually pretty small by today’s SP standards. The last good pitcher signed for less was… who, exactly?

        What’s more, he’s outperforming his contract by a ton.

      • Ari Collins - Jul 19, 2011 at 11:56 PM

        Oh, and Lee makes less than Beckett? I’m assuming that’s a typo. Lee doesn’t make $20M a year. His AAV is $25M. So yes, he’s paid nearly 50% more than Beckett. And over a 50% longer period. His overall contract is nearly twice as big as Beckett’s.

        So yes, I would say that Lee is paid like a superstar, and Beckett like a mere star.

      • bigleagues - Jul 20, 2011 at 2:00 AM

        hittfamily:

        1) I love Buchholz. But to assert that he is second in the pecking order ahead of Beckett is to ignore the very same numbers that you are using to argue that Beckett is overpaid.
        ** Bucky’s best season was last year, his first full season and he totaled 176 IP.
        ** He averaged fewer IP Per Start last year than Beckett has for his career.

        2) You argument that because the Red Sox are a .600 team, then it follows that Beckett should be a .600 pitcher is flat out absurd.
        ** To be a .600 team, you need to average over 97 Wins per year. Beckett’s first season in Boston was 2006. Since then and including Tuesday night’s game the Red Sox have .574 W% which translates to an average of 93 Wins per season.
        ** Beckett’s W% as a member of the Red Sox? .648

        4) Beckett is easily on pace for 200 IP – which would the 4th time in 6 years he’s done that. The two seasons he didn’t reach 200 IP, were injury shortened.

        5) Beckett is 31 and debuted in 2001, Cliff Lee is 32 and debuted 2002. Beckett has a higher career WAR than Lee. Their stats are otherwise virtually identical.

        6) Beckett’s first season with the Sox was 2006 when he was 26.
        ** From ’06-’10 (ages 26-30) Beckett went 71-40 over 919 2/3IP and made $44,423,000 over that stretch.
        ** Halladay, from ’03-’07 (ages 26-30), went 74-31 over 986 IP and made $45,825,000 over that stretch.

        ** Halladay is in the 1st year of a $20,000,000 per year extension that takes him to at least 36.
        ** Lee is making $11,000,000 this season, $21,500,000 next season and $25,000,000 for the next years after that – taking him to 36 and almost guaranteeing that he will be vastly overpaid by the end of this contract.
        ** Beckett is in the 1st year of his extension and is making an annual estimated salary of $15,750,000 until 2014.

        Now if Beckett and Halladay had similar numbers and salaries as they entered their prime years, and Beckett and Lee have had very similar career numbers, and Beckett is a year younger than Lee, who exactly is overpaid?

      • hittfamily - Jul 20, 2011 at 7:17 PM

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_paid_Major_League_Baseball_players

        This is where I got my numbers from. I dont have time to factor in incentives,how the contract is spread out etc. I let others do that. Sometimes they are wrong.

        His ERA has been over 5 40% of his time in Boston. His ERA has been over 4 60% of his time. There are 67 starting pitchers this year with an ERA under 4.

        He may fulfill his contract. That isnt my argument. I will use the NFL draft as an example. The raiders picked Darius Heyward Bay 7th overall, even though most teams had him at best as a secound rounder, or possibly a third. They paid him huge money, although nothing he had ever done suggested he was worth it. Even if he had made 5 pro bowls, it was still a bad pick. They could have traded down, waited til the second, or gotten someone else with the same expectations.

        Similiarly, in this last offseason, the Sox looked at Becketts numbers, most recently a .500 record with an ERA just shy of six, and decided he was worth a huge contract. If someone signs BJ Upton next offseason for 25 million dollars a year based on what he could possibly do, it will be a bad deal, no matter if he rewrites the record books. What Beckett does from here on out is a moot point, because it was an oversigning from the get go.

        He isnt a superstar, and didnt deserve a superstars contract. Theo overpaid for him, plain and simple.

      • bigleagues - Jul 20, 2011 at 8:16 PM

        hittfamily

        OK, I figured it out thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

        The $17M figure that USA today published includes his $5M signing bonus averaged out over 4 years. His annual salary remains $15.75M.

        Josh Beckett rhp
        4 years/$68M (2011-14)
        – signed extension with Boston 4/5/10
        – $5M signing bonus
        – 11:$15.75M, 12:$15.75M, 13:$15.75M, 14:$15.75M

        So we were both using correct figures. One with the bonus, one without. My bad for not realizing that.

        Just for the record, the extension was signed BEFORE last seasons injury plagued campaign and coming off a 17 Win, 3.86 ERA, 212IP, 4.2 WAR season.

        Look I am never gonna agree with your viewpoint. Not because I’m a Red Sox or Beckett fan (I actually don’t like him) – but because by any fair evaluation he’s simply not overpaid.

        If you’d just admit that Cliff Lee is over-hyped and overpaid (earning $21M then $25M per year for his final 3 years, while having virtually the same career statistics as Beckett) it would lend your credibility to your argument. But you keep ignoring that point I made, among others.

        Anyway its been fun. I look forward to more textual sparring.

    • bigleagues - Jul 19, 2011 at 7:52 PM

      As always, hindsight is 20/20 – which makes posts like yours all that more irritating.

      1) No one could have known Daisuke was gonna bust as badly as he has in the backend of his contract. You may remember, the Red Sox were among MANY teams bidding for the right to sign him. If the Yankees had gotten him and he ended up being the All-Star pitcher everyone expected, Theo (and Red Sox ownership) would be facing criticism for that as well.

      2) Lackey – I happen to agree that he was a waste of money and the signing was a bit out of Theo’s character. I’m not sure if it was pressure from ownership or just the fear that he would end up in the AL East – but I have never been overly impressed with John Lacking, errr uh, Lackey.

      3) JD Drew, while not always the most healthy fellow has been, until this year, paid exactly what a guy of his talent and production merits. By almost any metric he has been one of the top Right Fielders (don’t forget about his excellent Defense) in the game – when healthy (can’t include that caveat enough). People who play fantasy baseball (myself included) have been frustrated with him from the start of his career because the expectation was that he’d put up gawdy numbers. I think this was a solid , if unspectacular, signing by Theo. And in any event, there will be someone new protecting Pesky’s Pole next year – if not sooner.

      4) Beckett – Theo is not responsible for the acquisition of Beckett. He was on hiatus when the acting-GM-by-committee dealt HanRam and AnSan. Theo is responsible for extending Beckett. When healthy, like this season, Beckett is as good as there is. And he is proven at excelling when the pressure is on. In his 6th season in Boston he has had 3 very good seasons, 2 unspectacular but adequate seasons and 1 season severely limited by injury (2010). 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in the 2007 Play-offs. He is on pace for his 4th 200 Inning season as a Red Sox and he is an elite WHIP and Strikeout Pitcher. Quite simply – though a tad painful at time to watch – overall pretty close to a no-brainer to retain Beckett.

      Ubaldo – the Red Sox have no Starting Pitchers within 2 years of being reliable middle-top tier Major League rotation members. They do, however have a couple of very intriguing positional prospects not far away from arrival. If – and that’s admittedly a big if – they can trade for Ubaldo it would be a coup for Theo not only because it gives them a rotation as impressive as the Phillies, but because it will feature 3 top tier talents 27-years-old or younger.

      • proudlycanadian - Jul 19, 2011 at 8:33 PM

        Well said. I was just considering mentioning that Theo was not responsible for trading Beckett when I saw your extremely well thought out post.

      • hittfamily - Jul 19, 2011 at 10:50 PM

        I am a Rays fan, and I know how painful it is to sign a guy to a bad contract. Burrel’s contract crippled us to the point the best “upgrade” we could make was to bring in Brad Hawpe and Chad Qualls for the playoff run. My goal was to point out that big market GM’s make plenty of mistakes, but the mistakes are overlooked. Ruben Amaro brings in Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt, and he is annointed the best GM in baseball. No one mentions his ridiculous contracts though, such as Howard, Ibanez, Lidge and Blanton. Big market clubs can afford to make mistakes, and as long as they are still in contention, the mistakes can be fixed with other deals.

        I feel like I’m an objective voice in a Red Sox thread. I have respect for the Sox. I like their coach, owner, and fans. Realistically, if he was on any team but the 4 or 5 biggest markets, he would be looked at as a bust for his contract. Again, not saying he isnt good, because he is. However, only 4 or 5 teams could pay a guy 17 million per year and only get 2 of 5 years with a sub 4 ERA without the local radio shows ripping him every night. There are too many guys working for 4 million putting up the same stats for 60% of Becketts Boston career stats for me to consider this a successful signing.

        It has nothing to do with what they traded to get him. He was a key piece to a World Series, and it is tough to put a price on that as far as future prospects go. My fault with Theo was for how much he resigned him for. He based a 60 million dollar contract on a guy in his thirties who has shown signs of brilliance, but signs of mediocrity as well.

        We will have to agree to disagree I suppose. Thank you Sox fans for treating a Rays fan with a different opinion respect.

      • Ari Collins - Jul 19, 2011 at 11:53 PM

        hittfamily, you sound as if you aren’t aware that Beckett’s deal started THIS year. It was a 4 year $68M extension that runs from ’11-’14. So far, so good.

        The last extension he signed was a 3-year $30M extension that ended up a 4-year $40M extension once they picked up the option. It covered ’07-’10, and even with the disaster of last year, he was excellent enough in the other three years that he was decidedly underpaid.

        I think perhaps the issue with your reasoning is that you’re looking at how underpaid the 0-6 players are, thanks to not reaching FA yet. Just because they’re WAY underpaid thanks to the six years they have before they can be bid upon by other teams doesn’t mean that players who have more leverage like Beckett can’t also be underpaid, and both extensions that Theo has given him have been resoundingly good ones so far. He’s gotten very good returns on the money he’s put into Beckett. Even if you can’t just eye the numbers and how much he’s paid and see that he’s performed well for the money, the actual nitty-gritty dollars per win ratio analysis is very very rosy.

        For overpaid, see guys like Barry Zito and A.J. Burnett and (yes) John Lackey.

        I’m not saying that Theo is the greatest GM either. And he’s made some FA purchases that haven’t turned out that well (Lackey and Matsuzaka and every shortstop until Scutaro). But when you have the money to overpay in FA, you do so. And FA is, on average, a market where you by definition overpay.

        As to your original point, Ubaldo has very little chance of being overpaid, given the sweet contract he’s signed to. He’d be owed something like $14M. Total.

      • bigleagues - Jul 20, 2011 at 11:48 AM

        hittfamily

        I appreciate where you are coming from, and respect the fact that you are a Rays fan. But I would ask you to list some of the “many guys working for $4 million” that has put up the same career numbers as Beckett. I think you will find that producing such a list is very difficult.

        And again, to layman like ourselves, it may not be a big difference, but you keep stating that Beckett is making $17 million per year. He’s not. He’s making $15.75 million per year for the next 4 years. At the end of this extension he will be 35 and still making $15.75 million – meanwhile, Cliff Lee – who you cited as a guy who outperforms Beckett but actually has very very similar career numbers – will be 36 and making $25 million.

        Give Lee’s salary, it is very difficult to argue that Beckett isn’t a bargain.

      • bigleagues - Jul 20, 2011 at 11:48 AM

        hittfamily

        I appreciate where you are coming from, and respect the fact that you are a Rays fan. But I would ask you to list some of the “many guys working for $4 million” that has put up the same career numbers as Beckett. I think you will find that producing such a list is very difficult.

        And again, to layman like ourselves, it may not be a big difference, but you keep stating that Beckett is making $17 million per year. He’s not. He’s making $15.75 million per year for the next 4 years. At the end of this extension he will be 35 and still making $15.75 million – meanwhile, Cliff Lee – who you cited as a guy who outperforms Beckett but actually has very very similar career numbers – will be 36 and making $25 million.

        Given Lee’s salary, it is very difficult to argue that Beckett isn’t a bargain.

      • hittfamily - Jul 20, 2011 at 8:33 PM

        Big Leagus- “I appreciate where you are coming from, and respect the fact that you are a Rays fan. But I would ask you to list some of the “many guys working for $4 million” that has put up the same career numbers as Beckett. I think you will find that producing such a list is very difficult.”

        I didnt say there are 4 million dollar guys who put up Becketts career numbers. I said a 4 million dollar guy could replicate 3 of his 5 seasons.

        2006 16-11 5.01 ERA. 2008 12-10 .4.03 ERA. 2010 6-6 5.76

        Excluding the inflated number of wins based on some of baseballs best bullpens that rarely blow leads, any one of those seasons can be duplicated by a number off available pitchers. Hell, pull a AAAer up and he can do better than 06 and 2010.

        Contracts signed today are based on what you did yesterday, or in a prospects case, what he has potential to do. When Beckett was signed for a 4 year 68 million dollar contact (17 mil per, not 15.75) he was 30, so he isnt a prospect. It’s as if Theo ignored 60% of Becketts years when he evaluated what he would do tommorrow.

    • Ari Collins - Jul 19, 2011 at 9:28 PM

      Drew was also pretty good.

      What you’re seeing isn’t a fault with Theo, it’s a fault with free agency. You’re always paying for past performance for guys whose best days are behind them.

  8. bigleagues - Jul 19, 2011 at 7:14 PM

    Ahhhh, but Craig . . . I’m assuming that your Dad was attempting to sell the Corvette in the supermarket parking lot before the advent of eBay (or at least before eBay Motors).

    Anyway, I say your point is mostly right on. I’d add that sticking that Corvette (or Ubaldo in this instance) on eBay (aka his name plastered in every sports blog and news site as being available) for an auction with a Reserve price and you increase the chances significantly that someone will meet that Reserve price.

    And I understand O’Dowd seeing if he can reel in a crate of lobsters for his big tuna, but the Rockies and Brewers have virtually the same payroll. And if it were the Brewers with Ubaldo, it’s hard to imagine them not attempting to extend Ubaldo for a longer term and with a raise.

    It will be fascinating to see, 1) if Ubaldo really does get dealt (and I’m skeptical) and if he doesn’t 2) whether or the Rockies offer him an extension and raise this off-season.

  9. purnellmeagrejr - Jul 20, 2011 at 10:10 AM

    What happened to the car?

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