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If the Phillies get Pence, it’ll be because they overpaid for him

Jul 29, 2011, 10:30 AM EST

Hunter Pence AP

Every trade deadline there’s a guy whose name I get tired of typing and this year it’s Hunter Pence.  I thought it would be Beltran, but that was over rather painlessly. But Pence, yeah, I really am getting tired of typing it.

Anyway, Jon Heyman has an update on the Pence-to-Philly chatter.  You’ll recall that the Phillies were trying to swing a deal involving prospects Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton.  Heyman says, however, that the Astros have an “unreasonable” asking price.  In a later tweet he said that if the Phillies threw Domonic Brown that a deal could get done, so presumably that’s the benchmark for unreasonability.

We probably have three different threads going with Hunter Pence talk right now, but it’s probably worth noting once again that Brown plus prospects seems like a really steep price for Pence. It’d be one thing if the Phillies were fighting for their playoff life or something, but they could stand completely pat and cruise at the moment, making paying such a price too great.

Ruben Amaro is sharp. He has to know this.  I almost wonder if he’s just trying to sucker another team like Atlanta into paying too much for Pence.  Of if he has some crazy kung-fu move planned that has him ending up with, like, a reincarnated Eddie Matthews in the deal somehow.

  1. drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:34 AM

    I have the utmost faith in RAJ when it comes to making deals. He will pay a fair price or he won’t make the move. No way Brown should be included in this deal. It is steep enough with May, Cosart, Singleton. If Brown goes I will probably throw my shoe at the television during the game tonight. Like I said, the difference between Brown/Mayberry Jr and Pence is not that significant.

    • legaleagle513 - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:37 AM

      I will throw the other shoe.

    • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:38 AM

      I disagree on the Brown thing. I think Brown and a middling prospect is fine for Pence, who would be under team control for another year. But to give up Cosart/Singleton/May for Pence is way too much.

      Oh, and the difference between Brown/Mayberry Jr and Pence is pretty significant right now. In 2 years? Maybe not so. But for now, to do Brown for Pence wouldn’t be all that big of a deal to me.

      I think if RAJ has any Kung Fu moves planned, they are with Ned for a man named Matt.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:40 AM

        Domonic Brown and Brian Bocock for Pence. Would you do it?

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:41 AM

        If Bocock is middling, then yes. I’m not an expert on every guy in the Phillies system.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:46 AM

        Bocock is awful. Might as well offer Brown and a Wawa gift card.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:51 AM

        Look at the numbers, the difference between a platoon of those guys and Pence is not much.
        Pence: 398 at bats, 11 HR, 26 2B, .356 OBP, .828 OPS.
        Brown/Mayberry combined: 331 at bats, 23 2B, 11HR, ~.760 OPS, 330 OPB

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:53 AM

        “Bocock is awful. Might as well offer Brown and a Wawa gift card.”

        LOL!!!! I just like typing his name because it’s such a cool name. All the Bocock’s in the world would never get the Phils Pence.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:53 AM

        Wade would probably take the WaWa gift card actually…but seriously, why isn’t Brown for Pence a good deal? I look at Pence as what Brown might be in 2 years. Could Brown have a bigger upside? Sure, but the Phillies are a win now team. And if it takes Brown for Pence to get him, then do it. It may be a very slight overpay…but not enough of an overpay to cripple the organization. And nobody can deny that Pence help the team THIS YEAR a lot more than Brown is going to help them THIS YEAR.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:59 AM

        The more I look at this thing, if the Phils aquire Pence, they will in reality be saying bye to Brown. Like this or don’t like this, I see this as the reality.

        We shall know soon, folks. The future of the franchise could be altered significantly today.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:59 AM

        For a couple reasons: 1. Pence is over rated. He isn’t as good as make him out to be. He had a stellar rookie campaign but since then he has an OPS around .800. Good not great. 2. It cripples the outfield going forward. You then need to find somebody to play left field next season. Maybe Mayberry Jr…I don’t know. 3. Brown is going to be special sooner rather than later. His defense is concerning, but I think with work he will be decent. Pence is no great shakes out there either. 4. The need for a right handed bat is grossly overstated. 5. He isn’t a better hitter than Victorino so you are still left in a protecting Howard quandary. 6. Mayberry Jr./Brown can be close to as effective.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:08 AM

        I’m probably bailing on the Domo-nator a little too early. I think I am going to just go by this motto from now on…

        IN RAJ I TRUST

  2. cleverbob - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:35 AM

    Actually, he has Zombie Eddie Matthews’ agent on speed dial.

    • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:39 AM

      Why would he have the ghost of Eddie Matthews on speed dial when he already has the number of the greatest 3rd baseman who ever played the game of baseball, Mike Schmidt, stored on his phone. And Schmidt can actually answer the phone, because, after all, he’s still alive.

      • nategearhart - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:05 PM

        Old/dead Hall of Fame 3rd basemen are the new market inefficiency.

  3. andyreidisfat - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:39 AM

    As long as Brown and Worley are not on the table i say go get him. Have you seen the crap they trot out their in corner outfield.

    that being said I would rather over pay for Quinton because he would be a true 5 hole hitter and would really protect Howard. In fact a guy like that would give Howard so many better pitches to hit i would guess he would start to look like the who was protected in the line up.

    Howard with protection is one of the better power hitters ever without it though he is nothing more than a 30 homerun a year guy. So why pay a guy 25 mil if your not going to put him in the best situation to be great

    • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:50 AM

      Got to agree with you. I would rather have Carlos Quintin than Pence because he provides more power than Pence. I agree. I want a guy with more power protecting Howard. Pence is not a threat in the 5 hole. At least, not like Quintin.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:56 AM

        I’d love to get Quentin, but I think the Sox have already said they aren’t trading him. He has more pop than Pence, and he also walks a ton more than Pence. But again, if he isn’t available, then he isn’t available.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:01 AM

        He also gets hit by a ton of pitches. With Utley, Quentin, and Ruiz in the line-up the HBP count would be ridiculous.

      • schim23 - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:25 PM

        Pence is hitting .309 for a team that is horrible and with no protection. He has 766 hits in 5 seasons to Quentins 513. Pence also leads the Majors in outfield assist since 2007 with 56. The Phillies would be getting an all around better player with Pence than Quentin. He would also be under team control until after 2013 when he would become a free agent. The fans would love him because he plays the game the way it supposed to be played. Its play hard or go home…

  4. dailyrev - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:49 AM

    Here’s a tip Craig: Just type 2¢ (that’s the current exchange rate for 1 pence sterling = .02 USD)

    Yer welcome.

  5. philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:59 AM

    I don’t know what anyone sees in Dom Brown. He is terrible. He’s shown me no signs that he could be great. He’s scared to death at the plate and can’t field his position, at all! Sorry, but I don’t see the hype.

    This would be a no brainer for the Phills. What do they need prospects for? Pence is an established player. You can always groom more prospects. When your as good as the Phllies and have their money, prospects are for trading. They can reload every year through free agency.

    • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:06 AM

      Potential to be a multi-tool player is why Brown is hyped. His potential does not come around often. He can run like a deer, has off the charts power, has a strong arm, etc.

      Whether he develops his god-given abilities or not is the question. There’s no question though that the potential is there.

      • philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:31 AM

        Potential? Dom Brown can’t hit, can’t field and makes bone headed base running mistakes every chance he gets. I see a great athlete, not a great baseball player. I’d trade him in a heartbeat if it guaranteed me a top notch right fielder for the next 5+ years.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:37 AM

        Compare Utley when he first came up to Brown this season offensively. Brown has put up superior numbers at a younger age. A .737 OPS isn’t bad for a 23 year old rookie. I believe Utley was below .700. Base running is a teachable trait…it is usually because of uber aggressiveness. Defense is the real concern for me, but with work he can be good. Pence is no great right fielder either.

      • nategearhart - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:09 PM

        “I’d trade him in a heartbeat if it guaranteed me a top notch right fielder for the next 5+ years.”
        You know that Hunter Pence is not “top notch”, right?

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:21 AM

      David Murphy had an interesting tweet regarding prospects. To sum it up he said that the concern for him is not the future production of those prospects, rather their future trade value.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:25 AM

        Tweet from Jon Heyman a minute ago:

        “source: pence was told during last night’s game he was being pulled due to trade, but then he wasnt pulled”

        Hmmmm…interesting.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:27 AM

        Follow up tweet from Heyman:

        “mid-game mind change on pence trade re-raises question about whether ownership wants to deal him “

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:30 AM

        That is interesting. I don’t know if it says management doesn’t want to trade him as much as trying to fleece the Phillies/Braves for every last ounce.

      • spudchukar - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:27 PM

        Phillies’ Phleecing! Now that sounds like fun!

  6. Jonny 5 - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:59 AM

    If the Astros won’t take that package for Pence, the WS probably will take it for Quentin. I would not give more than what’s been rumored to be on the table. It just sounds like Wade is attempting to play poker here with Amaro. We all know how that will go …

    • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:01 AM

      Amaro Jr. looks like the Spanish version of Clint Eastwood in that pic.

    • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:03 AM

      LOL at picture. I’d rather have Quentin than Pence. My order would be the following…

      Kemp for 4 prospects and Brown or Worley
      Quentin for prospects or Brown
      Pence for prospects or Brown

      That’s it. I don’t want any other trades. anything else would just be meddling. I’d rather have Brown play right than anybody except Quentin or Pence.

      • Jonny 5 - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:13 AM

        Chris, you are too generous… Well either that or I’m too cheap.

        I wouldn’t be shocked if Amaro trades for someone not even mentioned.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:29 AM

        Nah, you aren’t cheap. Im just being the stupid uberfan who wants everybody now and forgets about the future. Either way, In RAJ I trust. and I still say no matter what happens, the Phillies have no excuses for not winning the World Series this year. They have the best team in baseball. Just pitch, hit and field and do your damn jobs.

      • seanmk - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:41 AM

        i think jonny is right you are WAY too generous, and it will be with someone not mentioned

      • nategearhart - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:12 PM

        Amaro will end up trading a stray kitten for Jay Bruce anyway. Damn ninja.

      • Jonny 5 - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:23 PM

        You’ll like this one Chris, and I think this sums it up well.

        http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110729_Paul_Hagen__A_scout_s_dissenting_view_of_Astros__Pence.html

  7. fishmatt - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:01 AM

    As a Phillies fan I wouldn’t do any deal that included Brown, Cosart, and Singleton; they could have gotten Beltran for that. If getting Pence means giving up those three than no thank you. I’d rather they send a mid-level prospect (or Singleton or Cosart if neccesary, but not both) to San Diego for Ludwick and have him platoon with Brown foe the rest of the year at that point.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:03 AM

      You would give up Singleton or Cosart for Ludwick? I’d maybe give up Austin Hyatt…and throw in that goon 1st baseman down in Reading.

      • philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:00 PM

        I wouldn’t part with either for Ludwick. He really doesn’t improve your team. I’d keep Mayberry if it came down to Ludwick. I’d only move my top prospects for Pence or Quintin.

    • evanwins - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:37 PM

      Singleton is useless to The Phillies. They already have some guy named Howard playing 1st and apparently he has some type of long term deal.

      And if Brown’s included in a Pence deal then what’s the Phils outfield for next year? Pence, Victorino and Mayberry? That outfield puts you right back in the predicament you are in now except you don’t have Cosart,and Singleton trade bait because you used them for Pence. And good free agents cost money.

      At least with Brown you have high-ceiling potential. Potential though sometimes has a way of not working out and there’s proof of that everywhere in MLB.

      I love to speculate as much as anyone but no one, including fans and writers, has looked as deep into this as RAJ. HE has to balance now against future, He has to look at talent and money for the rest of this year and for 2015. What can we do next year? Which players are going to be free agents after 2012? What’s my rotation going to look like in 2013?

      I don’ think people realize how much thought has to go into something like this. “Yeah, trade Brown, he stinks”, well what if he’s Daryl Strawberry in 2013 and you traded him for Hunter Pence in 2011?

      I want to win now as much as anybody but I want to win now next year and the year after that and the year after that too.

  8. philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:23 AM

    Ludwick stinks! He’s not much of an upgrade from the platooning toilet that they have now. I would however be very interested in Carlos Quintin. I think he’d tear up the National League.

    And on Dominic Brown, who cares about potential! What does that mean for this team? NOTHING! Hate to break It to everyone but he’s not the next Willie Mays!

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:29 AM

      I’m not referring to potential in a few seasons. I mean potential to be a star next season. He isn’t far off, particularly at the plate.

      • philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:38 AM

        This teams future is right now. They gotta win at any cost now, not 5 years from now. They can always reload through free agency or by trading young prospects such as Brown, Cosart, etc. They’ll be fine, Amaro is no idiot.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:41 AM

        The future is now and the following two seasons. Brown has a big part in that. Dealing him for a slight upgrade creates larger problems for the coming two seasons.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:42 AM

        I’m sorry but giving up Brown/Cosart/May for Hunter Pence is ridiculous.

      • seanmk - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:45 AM

        if you want to win next year you have to keep brown. by trading brown you are closing the window so to speak. the reward of keeping brown is higher then the risk of keeping him. he has all star potential and may already be starting to reach it. month of july .303 avg .410 on base. you don’t win many games when your 3 and 4 hitters go 1 for 16

  9. philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    This deal is real close to happening. Its just dotting I’s and crossing T’s at this point. Expect an announcement sometime prior or during tonights game.

    • legaleagle513 - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:51 AM

      Is that your opinion or did you hear something new? Just curious.

  10. philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:51 AM

    Unless it all falls apart It looks like the deal will be as follows; Singleton, Cosart and another mid to upper level prospect. No deal will include Brown or Worley, which will make everyone happy.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 11:53 AM

      I can live with Cosart and Singleton as long as the 3rd player isn’t May.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:05 PM

        Doctor,

        What do you think dirtyharry1971 and cup0pizza think about the Pence/Phils trade rumors?

      • philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:05 PM

        Not sure who the 3rd player will be, but I wouldn’t expect it to be an upper tier prospect. But who knows at this point. Amaro seems commited to Pence. I think he’d be a great fit here in Philly.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:09 PM

        Whatever ends of happening, they will take the absolute opposite view point. That is how those two are. I don’t mind people having unique viewpoints and think unconventionally. In fact, I encourage that line of reasoning. But those two just do it to wind people up with no thought whatsoever.

  11. lidspinner - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:02 PM

    Stand back Phil fans, the Reds are gonna show y’all how it’s done. Keep trying to buy your rings boys, it’s the only way your gonna get close.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:07 PM

      You mean how to get swept at home by the Mets?

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:08 PM

        Good one, Doctor.

    • philliesbb - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:18 PM

      Take notes kid, this is what winning teams do. You just sit there while your team continues their firesale. Save your season ticket money and get a new propane stove for your double wide.

    • legaleagle513 - Jul 29, 2011 at 12:19 PM

      Classic

  12. macjacmccoy - Jul 29, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    And to all my Philly fans ready to throw Dom Brown away its like u guys think Utley or Schmidt lit the world on fire in their rookie year. They were horrible offensively and defensively and they both were the same age as Brown.

    Go to this link its a good read it shows you how some of Phillies greatest players played in the beginning of their career and how Brown stacks up.

    http://phillysportsdaily.com/reader-opinions/2011/07/25/op-ed-criticism-of-domonic-brown-comes-too-early/#comment-73861

  13. russ99a - Jul 29, 2011 at 4:25 PM

    Wade should have been fired months ago.

    I’m very uneasy with this lame duck with a history of being fleeced by Amaro trading the best player on the team for prospects.

    Maybe Jim Crane would rather wait until the offseason and a GM that he hires to make that deal…

  14. schmedley69 - Jul 29, 2011 at 10:58 PM

    This trade can’t be judged until a few years down the road. The Phillies cashed in a couple of stocks, and only time will tell if those stocks would have been winners. Until then, saying that they overpaid is pure speculation. Let’s see how it shakes out. That being said, I wish that Ed Wade would have drove a harder bargain when he traded Schilling for a bag of magic beans 10 years ago.

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