Comments on: Phillies pay heavy price for overvalued Hunter Pence

By: 5thbase

5thbase — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 19:45:34 +0000

Stop it with the All-Star nonsense. McLouth was an “All-Star” because he was the only good player on the Pirates at the time. Pence was an “All-Star” because he was the best player on a horrible Astros team. Not sure if you realize, but every team has to have a representative. Just because you’re the best player on a horrible team doesn’t make you a real star. You’re just the logical representative for an exhibition. Plus, let’s be honest, when you’re surrounded by garbage anything good you do tends to be blown our of proportion.

I think it’s funny that the Phillies got someone who really isn’t quite as good as Nick Swisher but they’re acting like they got something amazing.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 22:03:30 +0000

Honestly, I’m giving up on defensive metrics. Here is why…you say Pence has a -15 runs saved this season, I read a +4….so which is it? That is a pretty wide gap.

By: Austin Swafford

Austin Swafford — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 16:30:04 +0000

I seriously question how much the people who are writing about this have actually watched Hunter Pence play, because he’s not an above average defensive outfielder. He makes flashy plays sometimes but botches a lot of routine ones. According to Baseball Reference, he has a negative dWAR and, over his career, has been worth -15 runs defensively in right field. He’s NOT an above average defensive center fielder. He also has a history of making bad baserunning mistakes. I would say he’s cut down on that a lot this year, but it’s helped by the fact that the Astros don’t do a heck of a lot of baserunning with that offense. In five years, he’s stolen 61 bases and been caught 39 times for a 162 game total of 15 and 9. That’s not very good. He’s stolen only 7 this year and goes LONG stretches in between stolen bases. He had just 1 in April and 1 in June.

Pence is fine, but he’s not what a lot of people are portraying him as. As a person who’s watched him every day for 5 years, I can say he’s a middle of the road player who’ll make you slap your forehead at times with absurd gaffes. I think the Astros got a heck of a deal on this trade. That, of course, depends upon how the guys pan out. It was definitely a gamble. But considering the upside and considering what Pence should have been worth in prospects, it was a steal.

By: fquaye149

fquaye149 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 16:13:04 +0000

You guys realize you are citing Jon Heyman and Jim Bowden right?

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 14:52:33 +0000

Referring to a discussion lost in the middle of the comments….how is Howard still a star? His defense and baserunning have always been below average to horrible, but he used to make up for it with great power and on-base skills….now? Not so much. Among 1B with at least 300 PA this year Howard ranks:

21st (out of 31) in WAR
18th in OBP
15th in SLG
21st in fielding
30th on the bases

The only thing that makes Howard look good is RBI, because he excels at coming up with men on and in scoring position (5th and 4th in all MLB), he has performed extremely average in those situations, ranking 36th out of 70 (players with 100+ PA with men on) in production with men on base….he just gets a lot of chances, which says much more about the guys hitting in front of him than it does about him.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 14:06:39 +0000

Paper, I agree 100%. Wouldn’t the entire season be a better sample size? No, because saying Pence is overrated and not a star when he is hitting .321 with an .850 OPS and a 139 OPS+ would sound so ridiculous wouldn’t it?

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:56:00 +0000

Hitting .321 with an .850 OPS and a 139 OPS+ isn’t good? What was I thinking? What were the Phillies thinking? Idiots!!!!!!

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:53:46 +0000

Also, that Bowden fellow who analyzes over on ESPN…former Reds GM thinks that the Astros didn’t get enough in return either.

By: schmedley69

schmedley69 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:39:08 +0000

drmonkey has it right. Dom Brown is a butcher in RF and can not be trusted in the playoffs. Keith Law and the rest of the stat geeks don’t see those kind of things when they look at the stats. Those of us who actually watch the games know that Brown is not ready. He is a horrible fielder right now and needs more seasoning.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:21:57 +0000

To me the worst part of the write-up is reference to Pence batting .200 in his last 45 ABs, as if that is a meaningful sample size (add a 5 for 5 onto that and suddenly he’s hitting .280 over the last 50 ABs). Gee, what is more important, a tiny sample size or several years of data? It is just a silly thing to say in any comparison.

You know who’s been better than Albert Pujols over the last 45 ABs? Jacoby Ellsbury. Know what that means? Nothing.

Looks, the Phillies are an old team…Rollins, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Pollanco, Ibanzez, Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, etc….their time to go for titles in now. By the time Cosart or Singleton are able to contribute, their time will have passed. This was the exact type of deal that each team should have made, paying Pence $20+MM over the next two years would have been a waste for Houston…and their farm system is barren.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:20:38 +0000

No need to go all BABIP on anyone. His current performance even with the luck on balls in play is not elite level, which was his point.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:15:04 +0000

It is hard to blame Mo in this situation, he has relatively little power in the organization compared to the manager and compared to other GMs, if LaRussa wants a player gone (Rolen, Ryan, Rasmus, etc.), then he is traded; if he wants a players acquired (Holliday, Theriot), then he is acquired.

By: bleedgreen

bleedgreen — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:11:15 +0000

Agree, theres no trophy for ‘Best Roster put together that didn’t win anything’ or ‘Most efficient use of salary’. The trophy is for winning the World Series, and if you don’t improve your team, you don’t win the World Series.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:09:22 +0000

Pence isn’t a star, he is a good player. There are plenty of non-stars on the AS team every single year, that moniker is meaningless. His star status really isn’t worth arguing about, his production shows that he is a good player, but clearly not a star. He is a major upgrade over Ibanez and fills a hole for the next 2 years with solid offensive and defensive production….that is a good thing.

I would disagree more with calling him over-valued. Pence isn’t a star, but odds are that none of the players Philly gave up will ever be stars either.

By: bleedgreen

bleedgreen — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:05:43 +0000

Actually, over the past few weeks/two months, Ibanez has been making some REALLY great defensive plays. I don’t know what happened but he’s been diving and leaping and making catches that even as early as 3 months ago, you’d go ‘Who’s wearing the Ibanez jersey making those catches in LF?’. Not sure what happened, but he seems to be running a lot better. Maybe not necessarily worlds faster, but ‘better’. Brown just doesn’t read balls right off the bat. He freezes for too long before reacting and then has to extend and make 1 handed catches while running full bore on balls that Ibanez or Victorino would be standing under waiting for patiently. Offensively, Brown and Ibanez appear to have similar averages, but Ibanez comes in bunches and Dom looks like he hits his average ‘consistently’. IE, if he’s batting 250, he gets 1 hit every 4 at bats. Ibanez, on the other hand, will go 0-12 then go 4-4. Still a 250 hitter, but got there a different way.

I think Brown needs a LOT of coaching defensively, and just needs time to mature at the plate. In the end, if Pence is the every day right fielder, I think you platoon Brown and Ibanez and sprinkle in Mayberry across the entire outfield at least twice a week to spell other guys depending on the pitching match ups.

By: phillyphan975

phillyphan975 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:48:39 +0000

Look, the bottom line is we really just lost Cosart. Singleton would have never saw a second in the bigs… So this is a win for the Phils as we get a nice support bat at the 5 slot and Hosuton gets what they want a bunch of prospects who may or may not flurish… If the Phillies do not get to the WS they can say they did everything they could…If they did not get Pence, the fan base and everyone else would have blammed it on not having a right hand bat.

By: bigtrav425

bigtrav425 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:39:58 +0000

Pence was the best bat on the market,and you add in how control him for the next 2 yrs and that makes what the Phillies gave up for him about right.There is never any sure thing when it comes to prospects,so who knows what these cats are going to do.i know about prospects im a Indians fans! lol…….Brown has struggled this yr and who knows he may never live up to his hype.so i think this was a fair deal becasue Houston needs talent and more of it

By: cleverbob

cleverbob — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:36:12 +0000

Oh, and Ben Francisco, thanks for the effort but it just hasn’t worked out. Pack your bags.

By: cleverbob

cleverbob — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:33:56 +0000

Phils add a bat without giving up any immediate impact players. Besides, even if Singleton pans out he’ll be blocked in the majors by Ryan Howard at first and (hopefully) Dominic Brown in left.

Chalk it up as a win.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:25:57 +0000

Matt, how come you didn’t post why you truly think this was an overpay? Were you afraid to post Pence’s BABIP, which is supposed to be around .375? Were you afraid to turn this into a sabremetric thread? Lol. If you look at the tweets of Jin Heyman, the Astros didn’t get “very much” for Pence. I guess he doesn’t agree with The assessment that Cosart and Singleton, who the Phillies would not need the next 3-4 years anyway, are top 25 prospects. Most including me disagree.

This was a great bating headline. You learned well from Obi-Wan Calcaterra.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:16:22 +0000

Dr, so only the top four first basemen are stars? Lol. I guess being in the top seven or eight just makes you average. Ryan Howard is a star. If you want to say he isn’t playing like a superstar, like he did his first four years, ok I’ll buy that. But top seven at his position and RBI machine makes him a star.

By: mojosmagic

mojosmagic — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:10:52 +0000

Stats are for losers along with “potential”. Hunter Spence plays baseball with his hair on fire. He plays solid D and leads all outfielders in assists. Spence’s excellent career offensive stats are as consistent with any player in the game. If you have 300 batting average along with 25 homers a year your good not ” lucky” as the uniformed writer suggest.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 11:33:32 +0000

Von Hayes had some good seasons.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 11:30:23 +0000

Sasquatch….my definition of star is real strict. Howard was a star, but not right now. For all his injuries, Utley is one of the if not the premier offense second baseman in baseball while ridiculously underrated defensively. Howard, while potentially electric and a great RBI guy, has slipped in production the past couple seasons. I’m not a Howard hater. I think he is a very good player, but if you said name the top 4 first baseman in baseball….where is Howard on that list?

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 11:25:38 +0000

Dan,
If this were purely a rental, then point number 1 would carry some more weight. However, Pence is around for another two years and it solves the outfield situation for next season. For me the problem with Brown was his defense. It was ridiculously shoddy and was detrimental to the team. Right now Pence is a better player than Brown. My thinking all along was that they should not include Brown in any deal for Pence, because I think Brown will be a better player than Pence as early as next season. However, right now it is an upgrade. It also allows something of a platoon in left with Ibanez and Mayberry Jr.

By: nocryinginbaseball07

nocryinginbaseball07 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 11:24:40 +0000

I agree. Beltran would have been a two month rental, and Brown’s ability to ever improve at defense is very questionable. The Phillies just landed an exciting player who is a proven contributor at both offense and defense, and apparently is the kind of class act that this club wants in their clubhouse. For guys who might be very good someday. Too high a price? We’ll see, but I don’t think so.

By: seeingwhatsticks

seeingwhatsticks — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 08:27:11 +0000

That comment from sasquash20 is both the best and worst comment ever. I want to be able to give it a thumbs up and a thumbs down.

By: dan1111

dan1111 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 07:56:32 +0000

Why I agree with Matt:

1) One point he made that people seem to be missing: it’s not just Pence’s value that matters. It’s the amount of upgrade he provides. Domonic Brown has a lot of upside. He crushed minor league pitching and has been holding his own in the majors, all at a very young age. He could easily be better than Pence for the rest of this season. Even if you think Pence was worth those prospects, it’s still a bad deal if he doesn’t improve the team very much.

2) The Phillies are not desperate. They are already probably the safest bet in baseball to make the playoffs. Their offense was already decent enough, and their pitching has the potential to dominate any team in the playoffs.

3) This is not their one chance to win it all. Cole Hamels is signed for one more year, Halladay for three more, and Lee for five more. Key offensive players are locked up for several more years, as well. With lots of money to spend, the Phillies should be good for years to come. There’s no reason to sacrifice the future for today.

By: gabrielthursday

gabrielthursday — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 07:52:51 +0000

My goodness. Compare this trade with the package the Cardinals got for Rasmus. 2 top-50 prospects compared to Edwin Jackson, Rzepczynski, Dotel and Patterson is ridiculous. I suppose this proves that Ed Wade>>John Mozeliak.

By: dan1111

dan1111 — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 07:32:46 +0000

Interesting, but a little bit misleading, because at the time of the 1993 trade deadline Randy Johnson had been just a slightly above-average pitcher over five seasons. In hindsight they look bad for not making the trade, but only because from that point on Johnson became one of the game’s all-time great pitchers.

If Pence suddenly turns into a hall-of-fame slugger, I’m sure the Phillies will be happy with their trade.